NPD September 2010

[Rotmm]

Do you have a link.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313838/000114554908001104/k01608e20vf.htm

"* For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2008, the method of reporting hardware and software unit sales has been changed from production shipments to recorded sales. In accordance with this change, the numbers for the fiscal years ended March 31, 2006 and 2007 have been restated."

My own company states sales in the same way and we often, at the end of a particularly important quarter or the financial year, are pushed to get recorded sales on the books and then ship (and invoice) some time later. It tends to be only weeks and not months though, as the auditors would find foul.

 

[Rotmm]

In this case though it is quite clear that in Europe at least the Move has been selling really well - stores were empty almost everywhere pretty quickly, and many retailers have complained that Sony wasn't able to resupply them.

I'm sure Move has been selling well in Europe, but where I live there has been (and still is) plenty of stock, no online retailers have been supply constrained and, working as I do in London, there has been plentiful supply in stores I've visited there to.

Conversely, Kinect pre-orders have sold out in the UK, with no online or brick retailer taking any further launch-day pre-orders.

Does that mean I can extrapolate those Kinect facts (and the inability to pre-order is a quantifiable, checkable fact) and say it's sold out in Europe? Of course I can't. Just as I can't say that seeing plenty of Move bundles around in the UK ios any indication that it's not selling well. It'd be as foolish to take isolated incidents of stock-in's and extrapolate those to come up with EU wide assumptions as it is to take an isolated incident of a store not having stock and saying it's out of stock in Europe.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I've replied here so not to sidetrack this thread any longer

Major kudos! Give this man a cigar! I've moved over the discussion to the same place.

 

[patsu]

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313838/000114554908001104/k01608e20vf.htm

"* For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2008, the method of reporting hardware and software unit sales has been changed from production shipments to recorded sales. In accordance with this change, the numbers for the fiscal years ended March 31, 2006 and 2007 have been restated."

My own company states sales in the same way and we often, at the end of a particularly important quarter or the financial year, are pushed to get recorded sales on the books and then ship (and invoice) some time later. It tends to be only weeks and not months though, as the auditors would find foul.

Right, in most cases, if there're no ops issues, the goods should go out asap. The shipping time may be long for a global supply chain. So they usually can't afford to wait.

It's only been 2 weeks after launch when Andrew House made his statement. I don't think it's a big difference whether they book it when the order is taken, or when the order has been shipped -- unless Move has sold out in the channel within this short period.

I'm sure Move has been selling well in Europe, but where I live there has been (and still is) plenty of stock, no online retailers have been supply constrained and, working as I do in London, there has been plentiful supply in stores I've visited there to.

When's the last time you checked ? I made similar statement earlier but the stores around me are out now. ^_^

Conversely, Kinect pre-orders have sold out in the UK, with no online or brick retailer taking any further launch-day pre-orders.

Does that mean I can extrapolate those Kinect facts (and the inability to pre-order is a quantifiable, checkable fact) and say it's sold out in Europe? Of course I can't. Just as I can't say that seeing plenty of Move bundles around in the UK ios any indication that it's not selling well. It'd be as foolish to take isolated incidents of stock-in's and extrapolate those to come up with EU wide assumptions as it is to take an isolated incident of a store not having stock and saying it's out of stock in Europe.

You don't calculate it that way. If MS does aggressive and sustained marketing, a certain percentage of their reachable audience will be converted to their customers. The more you spend/reach, the more you can convert statistically. So if you spend enough, you can just let the supply catch up. As long as the company has deep pocket to stomach the initial (huge) investment, and the product is good, it's a viable approach.

It's easier/faster to sell compared to earning one customer at a time.

 

[Rotmm]

When's the last time you checked ? I made similar statement earlier but the stores around me are out now. ^_^

This weekend when I was hunting for someone to take a Kinect pre-order

You don't calculate it that way. If MS does aggressive and sustained marketing, a certain percentage of their reachable audience will be converted to their customers.

True. But are MS going to market as aggressively in a EU country where Sony is the preferred platform, such as Spain, as they are in the UK where the Xbox brand is more acceptable? I doubt it, which is why it would be foolish to take UK demand to deduce demand in the wider EU.

Fwiw, while you can't anymore pre-order Kinect on Amazon in the UK (except from Marketplace sellers at stupid prices), you can still do so from both the German and French stores. Which kinda backs up the point I'm trying to make.

 

[patsu]

True. But are MS going to market as aggressively in a EU country where Sony is the preferred platform, such as Spain, as they are in the UK where the Xbox brand is more acceptable? I doubt it, which is why it would be foolish to take UK demand to deduce demand in the wider EU.

They would if they could. Kinect is different enough from DS3 or Move. I thought Kinect still has some unfinished localization work ? They may not make enough anyway.

I was saying you don't use one region to forecast demand in another region. You estimate it from your marketing in that region, and you can drive more sales than supply.

 

[Rotmm]

Ah, ok. It seems we were saying the same thing in different ways

 

[Rangers]

PSP=106k??