NPD November 2008

[midorigreenwood]

omfg!!!!

2 million.....

WTF?

I think Nintendo just broke the record for November by a lazy 400k

ps3 < 400k

and look at the legs of Wii music >,>

 

[Asher]

Sony's in some huge trouble here. The economy's only going to get worse and that pricetag will hurt them more and more. R2's sales were very low also...

 

[tirminyl]

R2's sales were very low also...

Isn't this like Insomniacs best 1st month? I don't remember Ratchet and R1 charting their first month.

 

[function]

The PS3 is in trouble and there is no way to pretend it isn't. Ten years from launch till its replacement? No.

The 360's popularity is growing and it's on it's way to being the proven "core gamer" platform of choice.

The Wii is exploding like a nuclear bomb having an orgasm and shows that almost everyone likes games (something that sensible people always knew) and that almost everyone likes having a bit of fun (something that sensible people always knew).

 

[obonicus]

Sony's in some huge trouble here. The economy's only going to get worse and that pricetag will hurt them more and more. R2's sales were very low also...

But what can they do? I seriously don't think taking more losses is an option right now.

 

[bkilian]

I see a severe lack of that evergreen LBP title. Does anyone have the the sales numbers for it this month?

At this point, about the only game on the PS3 that intrigues me is "Heavy Rain", and the only games I've played on the Wii are the bundled ones, the Rabbids, and Okami (which, despite being a PS2 game, was totally invented for the Wii )

I'm surprised Resistance 2 is so low, and Fable 2 disappeared off the chart pretty quickly, considering it was #1 last month.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

The PS3 is in trouble and there is no way to pretend it isn't. Ten years from launch till its replacement? No.

I don't think nobody at Sony has ever said anything about 10 years until replacement, just that they plan to sell it for 10 years like they'll do with the PS2. No comments from me whether that'll happen though...

I have to say that I was expecting a bit higher number for Gears 2, even despite the hard launch window. Halo 3 did twice that in less time.

 

[obonicus]

The PS3 is in trouble and there is no way to pretend it isn't. Ten years from launch till its replacement? No.

What? Who ever said that? When has anyone ever done that? If you want to say that Sony won't support the PS3 a full 10 years you might have a point, but otherwise you have a strawman argument there.

 

[midorigreenwood]

IMO, Sony SHOULD stick to a ten year plan for the PS3 without going to a PS4

Its all a matter of rebranding.

 

[tirminyl]

The PS3 is in trouble and there is no way to pretend it isn't. Ten years from launch till its replacement? No.

I don't think that's what they meant. The PS1 had support for that time and the PS2 is following. In either of those, they never waited 10 years to launch the successor.

IMO, Sony SHOULD stick to a ten year plan for the PS3 without going to a PS4

Its all a matter of rebranding.

If they did go to a PS4, it would be a Wii like jump. They will expand on the current architecture to avoid massive losses at launch.

 

[obonicus]

I see a severe lack of that evergreen LBP title. Does anyone have the the sales numbers for it this month?

I thought you were the one who was getting us the top 20?

Generally, are these software numbers good for anyone but Nintendo? Music games are down, GeoW2 didn't do as well as Halo 3 (but as I argued last month it's also not as big a game), the only big non-Wii title outside of sequels to show up is L4D. CoD:WaW seems like the one title that's up (I bet CoD4 will have better legs). Sorta seems like the Wii just smothered the HD consoles.

 

[Refreshment]

But what can they do? I seriously don't think taking more losses is an option right now.

I agree with Obonicus, it is just too bad for Sony that the PS3 got cut in the middle of an economic recession. PS3 had more to offer this year than 2007, yet the sales fell down.

Dropping the price would have been a mistake since they can't match the competition anyway. The huge psychological effect that the economic crisis has over the consumers is clearly reflected in November sales.

On Resistance sales, Sony is yet to convince me on its recent "western centered" development of games. Its not paying dividends and certainly not at the price of completely neglecting the japanese market.

 

[function]

But what can they do? I seriously don't think taking more losses is an option right now.

I don't think more losses is an option they want either. They need to damage control the PS3 (which they appear to be doing) and move to the PS4 as early as is practical. Ideally they need to deliver the PS4 a year earlier than MS deliver Xbox 3, or at least they do if they don't have something unique to offer.

If they do go at the same time then they do need to have something unique and appealing to offer. Nintendo did an absolutely incredible job of this with the Wii. I thought the Wii would do well once I saw it, but this well? Quite simply, wow.

 

[midorigreenwood]

what scares me about going early with the PS4 is that it'll alienate fans who already invested hard earned money for the PS3

remember Kutaragi and his flippant statements about getting two jobs and a fine dining experience?

if I was a PS3 owner and they did that? I would feel betrayed.

 

[obonicus]

what scares me about going early with the PS4 is that it'll alienate fans who already invested hard earned money for the PS3

remember Kutaragi and his flippant statements about getting two jobs and a fine dining experience?

if I was a PS3 owner and they did that? I would feel betrayed.

Well, Kutaragi said a lot of things. MS ditched the Xbox early. Nintendo never ditched the GC but they stopped releasing games for it pretty early in the picture. Gamers are suckers, we're fanboys who'll go where the companies tell us. Rather, we'll go where the games are.

That said, I really, really don't think anyone's going to make a move until they know what Nintendo's doing. Microsoft's gonna gloat over beating Sony, but all their price-cuts aren't targeted at them -- MS is after a share of the Wii market.

 

[function]

IMO, Sony SHOULD stick to a ten year plan for the PS3 without going to a PS4

Its all a matter of rebranding.

Given the high costs of making the PS3 rebranding isn't the only issue. Nintendo relaunched the GC as something incredible, but they had to be willing to create a new platform to do this.

 

[PARANOiA]

But what can they do? I seriously don't think taking more losses is an option right now.

Sure, but how appealing will the PS3 be to people in six months when (and if) the yen and USD fall into alignment, and all their friends bought the systems we're seeing in these numbers - and next months, and every month until Sony bite the bullet. Consoles are a heavy loss-leading business, where you take hardware hits for software sales. Sony's software isn't selling, and its hardware isn't selling.

When you say "what can they do?" I guess the real question is... what do we think will happen to the PS3? I think they have to cop a price cut on the chin if they to be profitable at all down the line. By the time the economy sorts itself out, MS will have at the very least announced the next Xbox, which will of course destroy any technical advantage the PS3 has today.

The alternative is to ride out a long and slow race from last place in the hope that MS's game plan doesn't work out long-term... but with a user-base gap that's going to grow every month, why would MS bother?

 

[function]

what scares me about going early with the PS4 is that it'll alienate fans who already invested hard earned money for the PS3

Given what's at stake (a market of over 100 million console buyers) not offending a small number of people that have have bought your old system isn't a great concern.

MS managed to keep a great deal of their users and Xbox Live subscribers despite their early transition. I'm sure Sony could do the same, especially if they transitioned with full BC and Home and PSN interoperability.

 

[midorigreenwood]

Given the high costs of making the PS3 rebranding isn't the only issue. Nintendo relaunched the GC as something incredible, but they had to be willing to create a new platform to do this.

agreed..... but Sony has a big strength

their army of first party and second party developers

IMO, they should be investing their moolah in getting their soldiers to develop new software to capture the Wii audience.

They are not probably not going to be able to match the XBox 720 so why even bother?

I'm not saying that they should just leave the PS3 as it is....

Rebranding will definitely mean a relaunch of the PS3 hardware as something new...

perhaps a PS3 slim with waggle at a mass market price with a new generation of exciting software.

I'm speaking as a tech novice of course so I'm not sure how feasible or cost effective a PS3 slim would be.

 

[Mintmaster]

PS3 numbers are down from last year. This isn't good at all.

Yeah, but last year was sort of like a relaunch for the PS3 with the 40GB model at a much more palatable $399. IMO that's also why it had strong sales early this year. It was much like the launch year of most consoles, and 360 sold similarly IIRC in its first year.

I agree with Obonicus, it is just too bad for Sony that the PS3 got cut in the middle of an economic recession. PS3 had more to offer this year than 2007, yet the sales fell down.

Sure, but while last year you only had to pay $120/$50 more for a PS3 instead of a 360, now you have to pay $200/$100 more. Moreover, 360 also has more to offer, and BR standalones are far cheaper, too, reducing the value proposition.

Overall, I don't think Sony is disappointed with these numbers. Right now MS is probably taking a bigger loss on the arcade than Sony is on the 40GB, because HDD+BR+whatever is unlikely to cost $200 (though MS probably makes some of that back through HDD sales).