NPD November 2008

[Arwin]

Meet you here in 5 years and then we can discuss if it turned out to be BS, okay?

And let me remind you of the PS2's success... Nintendo is pretty much set up to repeat that.

But only because they didn't give up after the N64 or the GameCube. Also in Japan, the DS totally dominated the PSP for the first years, but this year the PSP has picked up hugely and totals are now already over 10 million (basically 50% handheld market penetration). This is a scenario not totally unlikely for the PS3 in Japan, basically being on a different timeline. Everyone who buys or has bought a Wii now or in the last two years, can still buy a PS3 in a few years time when that machine has become cheaper.

 

[obonicus]

It won't matter, the metric will change and the goal posts will move.

The goal-posts have moved. The Wii is undoubtedly going to sell more than 100 million units, I'm pretty certain it'll be the best-selling console ever. And yet the Wii is not this generation's PS2 from any metric other than sales! The Wii is just this bizarre market-leader that no one wants to make big games for! Which is to the 360's benefit, naturally. And I'm not so sure if this will change. We're already 2 years into the Wii's lifecycle. The Wii's dominance was clear by the time of E3 and TGS. Have we seen much of a shift? I think it's more likely instead that we see B, maybe even A-teams inside publishers shifted to making their twist on whatever Nintendo's making.

There are two patterns in the console industry for market leaders, they're diametrically opposed and still they happen about as often. It's the problem with trying to predict things based on 'generations', of which there have been only a handful, and they've been pretty different each time.

Supposing that the Wii2 will dominate next-gen is fairly reasonable based on the patterns we do have. The major caveat is that the 'casual' market is much harder to predict than the regular gamer. I personally am wondering if the people who only buy the Wii for party games or for their kids will want to upgrade when the Wii2 comes along. The PS2 took a long time dying.

Supposing that Sony won't be able to at least fight Microsoft next-gen is a much bigger leap. (I'm even wondering how long they'll be competitors if Nintendo continues its rampage.)

 

[ShadowRunner]

.... Everyone who buys or has bought a Wii now or in the last two years, can still buy a PS3 in a few years time when that machine has become cheaper.

I agree, and although the same has been true of previous consoles where people may have bought additional consoles as they became cheeper it is different this time. PS3/360 is a significant upgrade over the wii both in terms of graphics and also cinematic gameplay experiences, due to it being such an upgrade i can see crossover being much higher than ever before, not just in japan but other regions also.

This is totaly anecdotal i know but i can see it being true for others also. Last year my nephew got a wii for xmas. This was his first console as he, and even more so his parents, never had any interest in getting him into gaming before. He is totally in love with mario galaxy and also zelda. About 6 months ago he saw an advert about Rachet & Clank 3 wich he imediatly wanted more than anything ever, you know how kids are. He is getting a PS3 this xmas along with R&C3, something he wouldnt have any interest in if it wasnt for the experience he had with Mario. This is a sale that sony would not have had if it wasnt for the current success of the wii.

I guess the important thing with this is how many of these types of sales there are, and whether or not this outways the number of ppl that were going to buy a PS3 but got a wii instead (and arnt then going to get one in the future when it is potentialy very cheep.)

 

[mrcorbo]

Barring a lack of content, history has shown that the vast majority would prefer to buy more games for their existing console than buy a new console which they would then have to also buy games for.

For example, some people bought an XBOX who already had PS2's because of the XBOX's increased fidelity, exclusive games and XBOX Live. Compared to the number of people who only bought PS2's, though, it doesn't look like it was a very significant number.

This actually makes me wonder whether there is a correlation between the rate of adoption of a new console generation and the rate of decrease in games released for the prior one.

Actually, this generation in terms of the PS3/360 performance has been very predictable overall based on prior cycles and going back to posts that were made up to 18 months ago actually was predicted pretty accurately. This makes me skeptical when people try to point out why, "This time things are different". People have been doing that for a couple of years now and so far...not so much.

The Wii has seemed to be an outlier, but like I said I think the DS comparison holds up pretty well. Does that make the PS3/360 combination the PSP (with much better software sales)?

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Yeah but what is humourous/ridiculous is that you have written off PS4, years before it is even likely to be released...much like how people wrote off Nintendo after the GameCube.

I'm not writing the PS4 off, I just think that it won't be able to take the market leading position away from Nintendo. The Wii's only weakness is the hardware, because Nintendo was out of cash and also wanted to avoid building a $500 console. For the Wii2 however, it is almost certain that we'll get a HD-capable machine, and the market can't really tell the differences in graphics beyond that.

So what could the PS4 offer that could take away the momentum Nintendo is building up right now? It can give MS a run for their money, maybe even beat the next Xbox, but I just can't imagine it as a market leader.

I love the whole, 'we'll see in 5 years argument'. You can make all the sweeping statements you like, and simply say 'wait, wait till Christmas 2013!'.

Well, how soon do you think we can safely decide the outcome of the next generation? I'd say it takes about 2-3 years and we can't really expectit to start before 2010.

Oh, and if we're talking about love, I'd like to mention the constant denial of the Sony fandom as a nice irrational approach, too.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'm not writing the PS4 off, I just think that it won't be able to take the market leading position away from Nintendo. The Wii's only weakness is the hardware, because Nintendo was out of cash and also wanted to avoid building a $500 console. For the Wii2 however, it is almost certain that we'll get a HD-capable machine, and the market can't really tell the differences in graphics beyond that.

The library is also a serious weakness. There's a good half of the conosle market or so that doesn't care much to buy or play Wii. A Wii2 that's the same thing with better graphics will not appeal to the core XB360 and PS3 owners. Nintendo would need a platform that offers the WiiSports experience for the existing Wii fans, but also adds the Halo/Gears/FFXIII/MGS4/Fallout etc. games for the rest of the gaming market. Whereas MS and Sony need to produce a platform that caters to their existing fans but also adds and effective Wii-like gaming experience.

No-one is positioned yet to totally dominate next-gen. There are significant holes in all platforms to present them becoming ubiquitous, gaming platforms.

So what could the PS4 offer that could take away the momentum Nintendo is building up right now? It can give MS a run for their money, maybe even beat the next Xbox, but I just can't imagine it as a market leader.

The same as Nintendo taking away PS2's momentum, or rather, sidestepping it entirely, offering an experience unique to PS4 with mass appeal where MS and Nintendo offer more of the same experienced the generation before. This is true for any of the platform companies - a popular USP can catapult the console to success.

Oh, and if we're talking about love, I'd like to mention the constant denial of the Sony fandom as a nice irrational approach, too.

[modhat]And I'd like to mention that the NPD thread really brings out the worst internet attitudes in the B3D population (regardless of console affiliation), as snide remarks and daft debates escalate. IMO the NPD threads should be capped after the first pages of comments to prevent all the clean-up agro that the thread warrants.[/modhat]

 

[Vic]

I'm not writing the PS4 off, I just think that it won't be able to take the market leading position away from Nintendo. The Wii's only weakness is the hardware, because Nintendo was out of cash and also wanted to avoid building a $500 console. For the Wii2 however, it is almost certain that we'll get a HD-capable machine, and the market can't really tell the differences in graphics beyond that.

So what could the PS4 offer that could take away the momentum Nintendo is building up right now? It can give MS a run for their money, maybe even beat the next Xbox, but I just can't imagine it as a market leader.




Well, how soon do you think we can safely decide the outcome of the next generation? I'd say it takes about 2-3 years and we can't really expectit to start before 2010.

Oh, and if we're talking about love, I'd like to mention the constant denial of the Sony fandom as a nice irrational approach, too.

Fine thats your opinion, but your exact words were 'It's pretty much decided already', as if you have some kind of monoply on the future...which of course is rubbish.

Feeling defensive are we? When you make sweeping statements with no actual basis, you're asking for trouble. I would have thought the example of the Wii being written off, would make this obvious (could you imagine the Wii as market-leader?).

The reality is, you have no idea what any of the platform holders might do beyond the basics, (PS4=Nvidia GPU, Cell CPU more than likely) anything more specific is guess work.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Shifty, can we agree that the worst attitude is not independent of console affiliation?

 

[Tap In]

I'm not sure if it's that, or if it's just because the potential casual audience is far larger than the hardcore audience, so it's hard to make a direct price/purchase comparison between the two. For example, everyone I know who has young kids is getting a Wii. I imagine that audience (parents with young kids) must be massive, and they won't be deterred by the $249 price, especially when the young ones are all crying for a Wii come Christmas time. ...

exactly

the crossover audience for Wii owners who would buy a 360/Ps3 (AND NOT own WiiS3 or Wii60) is not near impacting those monthly sales numbers IMO.

the wii is tapping a huge market that heretofore never owned a system, parents of young kids who want the system for the family or laggards who were owners of PS2's and gamecubes.

also, Joker, interesting comments on the controllers and I have heard the same comments from non-gamers

 

[Vic]

Shifty, can we agree that the worst attitude is not independent of console affiliation?

I just hope Sony dont lose any more first-party developers.

 

[obonicus]

Shifty, can we agree that the worst attitude is not independent of console affiliation?

Most people on this board know to save their actual trolling for NeoGAF.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Shifty, can we agree that the worst attitude is not independent of console affiliation?

Quite possibly. I'm sure there's a psychology paper in this for anyone looking for a PhD. However, regardless of quantities of trollishness from any 'side', it's not wanted. This thread serves no purpose past the intial news, where discussion about which companies should do what rapidly plunges into the lows of calling out platform bias and blinkered attitudes. Unless someone can convince me or another mod of the value in reopening the thread, and the useful and intelligent discussion to be gleaned from hammering out predictions, it'll remain closed as we await the next thrilling installment...

I refer everyone to the FAQ, particularly chapters 3, 4, and 5.