NPD July 2008 *Rules: Post #133

[liolio]

Why are you fixated with 2007? Sony launched at a price that was too expensive and didnt have a great deal of games. Now that they are down to a reasonable entry price, looking at 2008 makes much more sense. I dont think it bodes well for MS that PS3 is outselling them in its #1 market for virtually the whole year at a higher pricepoint. I think its down to the likes of Rare to help bring in new gamers because I just dont see the likes of GOW2 broadening the 360's demographic. Same goes for Resistance 2. LBP though could be huge, and if it takes off in the US like I think it will in Europe, Sony could have the biggest system seller of the year on HD consoles.

As good as LBP is it's irelevant to the overall strengh of Sony brand.
What I mean Sony doesn't need LBP too be Sony.
They made errors and opened the door to Ms, in some way and to some extends MS messed up.
But no matter the actual user base Ms is still and indeed should act as the challenger.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

They made errors and opened the door to Ms, in some way and to some extends MS messed up.
But no matter the actual user base Ms is still and indeed should act as the challenger.

Messed up in what way? According to who? Fanboys who watch the sales figures like a sporting event? Stock holders who are looking for the highest return on their investment? Consumers who want the most product for the lowest cost?

And your last comment is just patently absurd. MS isn't the challenger, the user base dictates that, and MS has already established themselves as a huge market force. Not only with the consumer, but also with developers. MS shouldn't act like the challenger either, there's no reason for them to be overly aggressive.

 

[liolio]

Messed up in what way? According to who? Fanboys who watch the sales figures like a sporting event? Stock holders who are looking for the highest return on their investment? Consumers who want the most product for the lowest cost?

And your last comment is just patently absurd. MS isn't the challenger, the user base dictates that, and MS has already established themselves as a huge market force. Not only with the consumer, but also with developers. MS shouldn't act like the challenger either, there's no reason for them to be overly aggressive.

According to me
they've messed up with RroD and its cost ( and to some extends it's not black/white).
I clearly hurted them and made them to reluctant to drop the price.
There is no public studies but I'm sure Ms have done studies in this regard.

Ms so far has etablished himself in US and that's not enough. Next time around they may not benefit from early launch or competitors errors.

At some point I really believe that the shift will happen in favor to Ms in Europe but it didn't. At it stands Sony is likely to catch up (if nothing change in Europe and Japan) during 2009, what will happen then? What will be editors position? Etc.
Let me tell you, for editors and theirs share holders the 360 will be percieved with the less growths potential...
Let me be clear Ms did pretty well so far (I thank they had the opportunity for much better, go figure...) in regard from where they were coming, but their share olders should not consider that they're done /the game is over.
Imho they should aim some more time at few profits (I don't speak about losing money) by 2010 if they manage to be at parity with Sony (or near it's not the point), they may consider earn a lot of money (till next gen launch and after that) with the 360 and face the next round as an equal which have a lot of consequences.

 

[AzBat]

I'll tell you another thing I think may really hurt MS, the high priced wi-fi adapter. It's always ranked highly on amazon, suggesting to me it's a normal purchase with a 360. If people are mentally adding that $100 as a "necessity" to 360's price, then they very well may be perceiving the PS3 as a far better deal en masse. Perhaps MS needs to start building in wi fi or at the very least drop the adapter to $50. In the end these are just some thoughts and it's difficult to say.

I don't think the Wi-Fi adapter high price is a concern. I have only once seen one in my local stores. Retailers have told me it's not a highly sought after item. If it's highly ranked on Amazon, then it's probably because of hardcore gamers. I can't fathom Microsoft ever building it into the system. They're margins are probably so high on it they make too much money to even consider it. I could possibly see them reducing the price eventually, but not to $50.

Microsoft's biggest concern is getting the price down. Hopefully that solve that with the rumored price drop next month.

Tommy McClain

 

[AzBat]

I would go even further MS needs to discontinue its multi sku offers.
It's a mess, I heard at some point rumors here stating that MS may consider an upgrade pack for the arcade pack and that the way to go.

Ms offers should like this, the 360 is the arcade pack and it's available @199$ (with some games I don't remember the exact offer).
That's it clear neat.
Want an HDD, a microphone+headset buy the a pack @100$.
Want more buy the elite online pack @ 200$ (between for the 120GB is not enough for the price and by far... and they could include the wifi adapter for example).

I like the idea of a low price SKU & using upgrade packs. However, I don't like the idea of them getting rid of the hard drive SKUs completely either. The best scenario would be an Arcade with built-in flash drive with a <10gb capacity. They also need to include a headset with every system. It's the reason the Xbox Live is such a vocal community. A pack-in game would be nice, but choosing between a disc game or Arcade game is hard. The upgrade packs would also need to include component or HDMI cables. They could go with a 60gb with component and ethernet cables as their Pro package(like the rumored 60gb Live Starter Pack sans headset). Then have a 120gb with HDMI, component & ethernet cables as their Elite package. The other problem with the one SKU strategy, what do you do about the color? Offer one or both?

Tommy McClain

 

[eastmen]

Why are you fixated with 2007? Sony launched at a price that was too expensive and didnt have a great deal of games. Now that they are down to a reasonable entry price, looking at 2008 makes much more sense. I dont think it bodes well for MS that PS3 is outselling them in its #1 market for virtually the whole year at a higher pricepoint. I think its down to the likes of Rare to help bring in new gamers because I just dont see the likes of GOW2 broadening the 360's demographic. Same goes for Resistance 2. LBP though could be huge, and if it takes off in the US like I think it will in Europe, Sony could have the biggest system seller of the year on HD consoles.

LBP larger than Gears of War 2 ? Are you kidding me ? Anyway Sony has already released a huge exclusive title this year , starting in August Ms is going to start releasing alot of their exclusives. I predict in Sept (esp with a price drop) Ms is going to make up for the last few months in sales and over take Sonys lead this year in the states and then outsell them the rest of the year. The 360 has a huge amount of games and Finally drop its price. You say Sony was to expensive last year and it looks like it can be the case again. They will be $200 more than the cheapest sku from MS . On that system you can play GTA4 , Gears 2 and other games. Is bluray and LBP worth $200 to the average American consumer. For $300 you get a 60 gig drive and all those great games on the 360. Is that $100 worth the extra 20 gigs and bluray ? Those are the questions that need to be answered , if ms does another holdiay bundle with a price drop we will see more questions that need to be answered.

 

[eastmen]

I like the idea of a low price SKU & using upgrade packs. However, I don't like the idea of them getting rid of the hard drive SKUs completely either. The best scenario would be an Arcade with built-in flash drive with a <10gb capacity. They also need to include a headset with every system. It's the reason the Xbox Live is such a vocal community. A pack-in game would be nice, but choosing between a disc game or Arcade game is hard. The upgrade packs would also need to include component or HDMI cables. They could go with a 60gb with component and ethernet cables as their Pro package(like the rumored 60gb Live Starter Pack sans headset). Then have a 120gb with HDMI, component & ethernet cables as their Elite package. The other problem with the one SKU strategy, what do you do about the color? Offer one or both?

Tommy McClain

$200 bucks with head set and 16 gigs of flash storage in the console ? I don't know whats involved in actually adding it though. I doubt this will ever happen though but its a good thought for next gen.

 

[djskribbles]

LBP larger than Gears of War 2 ? Are you kidding me ? Anyway Sony has already released a huge exclusive title this year , starting in August Ms is going to start releasing alot of their exclusives. I predict in Sept (esp with a price drop) Ms is going to make up for the last few months in sales and over take Sonys lead this year in the states and then outsell them the rest of the year. The 360 has a huge amount of games and Finally drop its price. You say Sony was to expensive last year and it looks like it can be the case again. They will be $200 more than the cheapest sku from MS . On that system you can play GTA4 , Gears 2 and other games. Is bluray and LBP worth $200 to the average American consumer. For $300 you get a 60 gig drive and all those great games on the 360. Is that $100 worth the extra 20 gigs and bluray ? Those are the questions that need to be answered , if ms does another holdiay bundle with a price drop we will see more questions that need to be answered.

the question is how many more systems will Gears of War 2 move? its very possible that many Gears fans have already bought a 360.

personally, i dont think much is going to change for the remainder of the year. i think Sony will continue to have a small lead every month. its not like Sony only has LBP for the rest of the year... Resistance 2 and Motorstorm 2 are also being released, not to mention a few big releases on Blu-Ray such as Iron man and The Dark Knight.

 

[AzBat]

$200 bucks with head set and 16 gigs of flash storage in the console ? I don't know whats involved in actually adding it though. I doubt this will ever happen though but its a good thought for next gen.

I was thinking around 4-8gb actually, that would fit the <10gb part I mentioned. Not sure the logistics of it. Microsoft might have technical requirements on hard drive or memory card usage. 512mb is the biggest memory card and 20gb is the smallest hard drive. We already know that about 7gb on the hard drive is used for caching and backward compatibility. Not sure what would happened if you had 4-8gb of flash built-in. Most likely it would have to be treated as a memory card. But what happens when you add a hard drive? Anyway, at 16gb you're coming into the cheaper hard drive territory. I think a $200 console with built-in flash is possible this gen. Maybe not this holiday, but maybe next spring.

Tommy McClain

 

[eastmen]

the question is how many more systems will Gears of War 2 move? its very possible that many Gears fans have already bought a 360.

personally, i dont think much is going to change for the remainder of the year. i think Sony will continue to have a small lead every month. its not like Sony only has LBP for the rest of the year... Resistance 2 and Motorstorm 2 are also being released, not to mention a few big releases on Blu-Ray such as Iron man and The Dark Knight.

I would say more copies than Resistance 2 or LBP. As for the bluray movies do you really think that a cash straped country is going to go out and buy a $400 player plus a $30-$40 movie when they can just buy it for $15 bucks on dvd?

If the $200 price point is true for the 360 this time around you can bet alot of people will hear their friends talking about playing it and how awsome it is and go into a store and see that for $200 bucks plus gears 2 cost they can go home and play with their friends because really any xbox 360 can go on live esp now that the arcade comes with a memory card

I was thinking around 4-8gb actually, that would fit the <10gb part I mentioned. Not sure the logistics of it. Microsoft might have technical requirements on hard drive or memory card usage. 512mb is the biggest memory card and 20gb is the smallest hard drive. We already know that about 7gb on the hard drive is used for caching and backward compatibility. Not sure what would happened if you had 4-8gb of flash built-in. Most likely it would have to be treated as a memory card. But what happens when you add a hard drive? Anyway, at 16gb you're coming into the cheaper hard drive territory. I think a $200 console with built-in flash is possible this gen. Maybe not this holiday, but maybe next spring.

Tommy McClain

You could go into sd teritory in costs. I don't know if you can install that inside the system and soder it to the board. however you can get an 8 gig sd card now for $20 bucks. So I'd guess ms ordering them by the millions would make it cheaper. Wouldn't ms rather sell memory cards though?

 

[AzBat]

You could go into sd teritory in costs. I don't know if you can install that inside the system and soder it to the board. however you can get an 8 gig sd card now for $20 bucks. So I'd guess ms ordering them by the millions would make it cheaper. Wouldn't ms rather sell memory cards though?

They're not selling the memory cards in the Arcade SKU. It's just a matter of determining how much value they're willing to put into a single SKU at that low of a price. Personally, if you would have told me at launch that they would have re-branded the Core package with 128MB memory card with 5 free games at the same price, I would have told you were crazy. Anyway, as long as they are selling HDD SKUs, then there's no incentive to put any flash inside the unit.

Tommy McClain

 

[fearsomepirate]

the question is how many more systems will Gears of War 2 move? its very possible that many Gears fans have already bought a 360.

At this point, it's quite difficult to be a Gears fan without a 360, unless a buddy is sharing his.

 

[-tkf-]

LBP larger than Gears of War 2 ?

LBP has more potential than Halo or Gears of War. Not because they are bad games but because LBP has a much broader audience. Hell i know a guy that bought his PS3 just from watching the E3 trailer. LBP will be moving PS3´s until there is a PS4

 

[eastmen]

Mod Note: Keep the snarky remarks to yourself. Either discuss things maturely or go to another forum.

LBP is going to be a Niche title meant for the hardcore

 

[obonicus]

LBP is going to be a Niche title meant for the hardcore

What it's going to be we don't know, but it's not 'meant for the hardcore'. It's meant to broaden the PS3's appeal. It's not even up to debate: Sony has said so a couple of times over the last few weeks, there have been news stories about how Sony may even use the sackboy as the new face of the PS3. We've all seen the photos of the person in the sackboy suit with the little kid.

And before you tell me I'm wrong, I'm not saying they're going to succeed, because I honestly don't know if they will.

 

[djskribbles]

I would say more copies than Resistance 2 or LBP. As for the bluray movies do you really think that a cash straped country is going to go out and buy a $400 player plus a $30-$40 movie when they can just buy it for $15 bucks on dvd?

LBP a niche title for the hardcore? only if Sony markets it that way. it could potentially reach far more fans, and NEW customers to the PS3, than Gears of War 2 could on 360 imho. reason being, LBP is nothing like anything else before, anyone can enjoy it, and it has endless possibilities. whereas in Gears 2' case, the first one already attracted many fans.
so i disagree that Gears will single handedly push more systems than LBP and R2 combined.

and yes i do think that some people will go out a buy a blu-ray player for a couple big Blu-Ray releases, and the PS3 is still the best option if you play any video games at all. even my sister who only plays games like rock band or karaoke type games, will be buying a ps3... because a) it plays the couple of games she plays, and b) its a blu-ray player (and a good one i might add). even if the price of a standalone is cheaper, with the ps3, you get so much more.

 

[djskribbles]

were just trying to be analysts and predict whats going to happen in a sales thread... nothing wrong with that imo. whats the point of these threads then? just to post comments on what happened last month? now wheres the fun in that? :smile:

 

[AlphaWolf]

All that is happening here is cheerleading.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

the question is how many more systems will Gears of War 2 move? its very possible that many Gears fans have already bought a 360.

True, but games of that caliber will always move new systems too. The end of the year should be pretty interesting console sales wise in NA.

 

[-tkf-]

LBP is going to be a Niche title meant for the hardcore

If by niche you mean biggest and hardcore you mean everybody, sure.

Sony is gonna use everything they have to throw Sackboy at the world and make everyone love him. Will it be a succes? everyone that consider themselves a gamer should hope so. In this case i will be stupid optimistic and say it will be this generations number one title. Much more fun than just being angry and negative.