So you do mean momentum against last years terrible sales. That makes sense.
NPD July 2008 *Rules: Post #133
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So you do mean momentum against last years terrible sales. That makes sense.
If you can identify which months are five week months, I'll update the data. Alternatively, zed dropped the data on the first page if you're up for doing it yourself.
Cheers
I mean momentum on every level you can pick, PSN, Controller, add ons, firmware upgrades, price, games, format war, development tools and developer support.
That is summed up in sales. And that is why it´s selling now compared to any other time in it´s life.
At first i found i couldn´t really believe it outsold the 360, i kind a agreed with the reasons that was brought forward by the 360 side. But i think we are seeing a trend now more than a fluke. Thanks to it´s momentum.
Impressive considering what i expected before it launched? No not at all, but compared to the sobering sales after the launch this is very good news.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
At this rate the PS3 will never catch the X360.
Is MGS4 really on pace to outsell Halo 3?
Maybe not in the US but worldwide i think it will.
or not , the ps3 just phased out its 500 unit and made its $400 unit almost equal in value to the old 500 bundle. The 360 has only phased out its $350 bundle at $300 price points and introduced a new better one at $350. We will see what happens in the states when ms does a real price drop
MS has had a price advantage for ages now and its hardly made a difference.
Sony will keep trumpeting Blu-ray which will tie nicely with burgeoning HDTV sales in the US. Having said that, the US 'war' will likely be close for the next couple of years. In Japan and Europe however, Sony will likely make some real headway, and didnt the NPD say that the European market is now 10% bigger than the US market?
Funny how things turn out. Originally Japan was king, more recently it has been the US, and now Europe is emerging as the most important market in terms of revenue for the major hardware companies. Throw in a strong Euro and...
As I have pointed out in a past (search me in NPD threads, I am not going to redo all that legwork again) sales of titles aren't linear to an install base. Doubling an install base won't result (in most cases) a title like NCAA Football to double in sales. This can be simply seen by comparing '07 numbers to '08 numbers for multiplatform titles in comparison to the install base. There are always various factors that may create exceptions but in general looking at sales on multiplatform titles with an eye for "attach rate" as an indication of consumer strength falls short of what the data says when extrapolated ... oh, and it doesn't matter from a developer standpoint. If 100% of people buy a game on a console with 20k consumers, the attach rate means nothing.
On the positive side it appears the PS3 is generating positive multiplatform sales that justify the development effort and that is all that matters. Last generation the Xbox was able to support solid 3rd party sales, enough to justfy co-development of a fair number of titles, while the GCN with a similar install base had much poorer 3rd party sales and couldn't support many of the same titles in regards to development investment. Posters are often too busy looking at the "war" and missing what publishers look for: is it a fiscally positive move. Even with the 360's excellent software sales, the smallish next gen hardware consoles install base makes it risky to invest in a single platform. Getting a ~ 40-60% (+/- of course) boost in sales by co-development is in many cases a wise move.
MS has had a price advantage for ages now and its hardly made a difference.
Sony will keep trumpeting Blu-ray which will tie nicely with burgeoning HDTV sales in the US. Having said that, the US 'war' will likely be close for the next couple of years. In Japan and Europe however, Sony will likely make some real headway, and didnt the NPD say that the European market is now 10% bigger than the US market?
Funny how things turn out. Originally Japan was king, more recently it has been the US, and now Europe is emerging as the most important market in terms of revenue for the major hardware companies. Throw in a strong Euro and...
It hardly made a diffrence ? Did you not see 2007 sales big guy ? The ps3 is now priced between the 60 gig xbox 360 and the 120 gig xbox 360 so in a way the ps3 has the price advantage right now. However if the rumored prices are true the ps3 will sit at the same price as the elite . it will be $100 more than the 60 gig xbox 360 and $200 more than the core. If you look back to last year when hte 360 was easily outselling it , ms will have the same price advantage again. Europe may be a bigger market , who knows and right now the euro is really strong , but it may not stay that way forever. The good in USA is that every 4 years we have a chance to change stuff for the better.
I think all us "big guys" saw the 2007 sales, that is why some here are surprised that the PS3 is doing so good.
Yes it´s going to be interesting what happens with the Price Drops, right now i don´t think Sony really cares since they can claim more value for the money. And even now with the "percieved" expensive console they are keeping up. What surprised me was the worldwide numbers, i just didn´t phantom then PS3 pulling so close to the 360 so fast, if ever.
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I think his 4 years comment is referring to the presidential election. There's definitely not going to be a 720 in 2009. Probably not until 2011 at the earliest.
Also, where did you get WW sales numbers?
On to NPD comments (mostly PS360 focused natch):
It's often difficult to get a handle on true demand because of the lag in NPD. Weren't some people claiming PS3 had shortages in July? Personally I havent really paid attention. I know all PS3 sku's are in stock on Amazon, on the other hand I went to Best Buy yesterday and no PS3's were available. (Yet they did have 9 Wii's on the shelves, perhaps again pointing out the pitfalls of anecdotes).
So basically I guess one could question if there were PS3 shortages in both July and August, and these NPD's may not even reflect true PS3 demand.
As far as 360 price, some are saying 360 has a great price advantage versus PS3, but I think that can be argued. In Europe it's true AFAIK, but in the USA with the Arcade pretty shunned, people basically buy one of two skus, the 349 pro or 449 Elite, which averages out to the same as PS3.
So I think the next rumored drops still put the 360 in a better position, as has been covered but I'll illustrate with a table. Currently 360 prices
No HD =279
20GB=299
60GB=349
120GB=449
After rumored cut
No HD=199
60GB=299
120GB=399
I dont know, these PS360 numbers are really low, and NPD rather befuddles me sometimes. I'm in "need more data mode" myself. I'm especially wondering if 360 demand is really so anemic. My hunch is it isnt, but again "need more NPD's" to be sure. I've noticed 360 hardware becoming a lot more active on amazon lately since the Gears 2 software sku's hit (though still below PS3 as is usual on amazon).
If 360 demand is really so anemic, then MS has a problem, and I'm not sure what to do about it. Maybe the hardware unreliability rumors are taking a toll. Maybe a Blu Ray equipped Elite SKU as has been rumored off and on for ages is badly needed, maybe people really want their console to have Blu Ray. Maybe the Playstation brand name combined with flashy games is finally taking hold.
I'll tell you another thing I think may really hurt MS, the high priced wi-fi adapter. It's always ranked highly on amazon, suggesting to me it's a normal purchase with a 360. If people are mentally adding that $100 as a "necessity" to 360's price, then they very well may be perceiving the PS3 as a far better deal en masse. Perhaps MS needs to start building in wi fi or at the very least drop the adapter to $50. In the end these are just some thoughts and it's difficult to say.
Another thing is the pitiful 20Gb HD in the pro could be slowing sales, personally this has always bothered me being so tiny, but I dont know if the masses agree. What I did notice at Best Buy was the clearance 20Gb appeared to be selling briskly (only one remaing) while there were plenty of 60GB's and Elites. So that hints it's not a factor (if it was a large factor people would be choosing the 60GB even at an extra $50). Then again, the size of the stacks at Best Buy may not have anything to do with actual sales anyway of course :smile:
Also keep in mind the ol June=5 week July=4 week thing. Comparing weekly rates shows you the Wii actually slightly increased in sales in July for example. PS3 sales were down 31% (but if there were shortages, it's skewed), 360 sales were up 16% on a weekly basis from June. (Still a lot less than I'm sure people were expecting due to the 299 clearance, but at least there was some increase to show us we're not crazy).
It's often difficult to get a handle on true demand because of the lag in NPD. Weren't some people claiming PS3 had shortages in July? Personally I havent really paid attention. I know all PS3 sku's are in stock on Amazon, on the other hand I went to Best Buy yesterday and no PS3's were available. (Yet they did have 9 Wii's on the shelves, perhaps again pointing out the pitfalls of anecdotes).
So basically I guess one could question if there were PS3 shortages in both July and August, and these NPD's may not even reflect true PS3 demand.
As far as 360 price, some are saying 360 has a great price advantage versus PS3, but I think that can be argued. In Europe it's true AFAIK, but in the USA with the Arcade pretty shunned, people basically buy one of two skus, the 349 pro or 449 Elite, which averages out to the same as PS3.
So I think the next rumored drops still put the 360 in a better position, as has been covered but I'll illustrate with a table. Currently 360 prices
No HD =279
20GB=299
60GB=349
120GB=449
After rumored cut
No HD=199
60GB=299
120GB=399
I dont know, these PS360 numbers are really low, and NPD rather befuddles me sometimes. I'm in "need more data mode" myself. I'm especially wondering if 360 demand is really so anemic. My hunch is it isnt, but again "need more NPD's" to be sure. I've noticed 360 hardware becoming a lot more active on amazon lately since the Gears 2 software sku's hit (though still below PS3 as is usual on amazon).
If 360 demand is really so anemic, then MS has a problem, and I'm not sure what to do about it. Maybe the hardware unreliability rumors are taking a toll. Maybe a Blu Ray equipped Elite SKU as has been rumored off and on for ages is badly needed, maybe people really want their console to have Blu Ray. Maybe the Playstation brand name combined with flashy games is finally taking hold.
I'll tell you another thing I think may really hurt MS, the high priced wi-fi adapter. It's always ranked highly on amazon, suggesting to me it's a normal purchase with a 360. If people are mentally adding that $100 as a "necessity" to 360's price, then they very well may be perceiving the PS3 as a far better deal en masse. Perhaps MS needs to start building in wi fi or at the very least drop the adapter to $50. In the end these are just some thoughts and it's difficult to say.
Another thing is the pitiful 20Gb HD in the pro could be slowing sales, personally this has always bothered me being so tiny, but I dont know if the masses agree. What I did notice at Best Buy was the clearance 20Gb appeared to be selling briskly (only one remaing) while there were plenty of 60GB's and Elites. So that hints it's not a factor (if it was a large factor people would be choosing the 60GB even at an extra $50). Then again, the size of the stacks at Best Buy may not have anything to do with actual sales anyway of course :smile:
Also keep in mind the ol June=5 week July=4 week thing. Comparing weekly rates shows you the Wii actually slightly increased in sales in July for example. PS3 sales were down 31% (but if there were shortages, it's skewed), 360 sales were up 16% on a weekly basis from June. (Still a lot less than I'm sure people were expecting due to the 299 clearance, but at least there was some increase to show us we're not crazy).
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Ahh yes. I'd tell you not to trust Vgchartz, and instead trust the manufacturer's WW ship numbers, but since VGchartz WW "sales" shadow the manufacturers ship numbers closely for obvious reasons, it's decently accurate
I prefer to use the quarterly ship numbers directly from the manufacturers though. Those numbers are 20.3 m X360's and 14.41 PS3's as of 6/31/08. Vgchartz has it at 20.30 360 14.73 P3 curently, so pretty close.
Why are you fixated with 2007? Sony launched at a price that was too expensive and didnt have a great deal of games. Now that they are down to a reasonable entry price, looking at 2008 makes much more sense. I dont think it bodes well for MS that PS3 is outselling them in its #1 market for virtually the whole year at a higher pricepoint. I think its down to the likes of Rare to help bring in new gamers because I just dont see the likes of GOW2 broadening the 360's demographic. Same goes for Resistance 2. LBP though could be huge, and if it takes off in the US like I think it will in Europe, Sony could have the biggest system seller of the year on HD consoles.
Ahh yes. I'd tell you not to trust Vgchartz, and instead trust the manufacturer's WW ship numbers, but since VGchartz WW "sales" shadow the manufacturers ship numbers closely for obvious reasons, it's decently accurate
I prefer to use the quarterly ship numbers directly from the manufacturers though. Those numbers are 20.3 m X360's and 14.41 PS3's as of 6/31/08. Vgchartz has it at 20.30 360 14.73 P3 curently, so pretty close.
Yeah i know those numbers isn´t really loved, but they came up in the PS3 finance rapport where they (vchartz) adjusted them accordingly.
I played around with the graphs, nice tool and it´s weird how the PS3 just took a leap after xmas 2007.
MS might be in a better position after the price cut but imho the RroD costs made them lag way too much behing their own schedule as far as price cut are concern.
Now this has allowed Sony to regain its balance and Sony is in a proper situation to play its strenghts. Sony in its fight vs MS would benefit more from a price cut than the latter.
There is also an issue selling that much the Wii is clearly stealing a lot of gamers that may have buy the 360 or the ps3 when more affordable.
I mean reaching 199$ will boost the market growth for both Ms and Sony but may less tan in the previous because the Wii will have feed on a non negligible part of this market.
I don't think MS face a different problem as Sony, both of them mess in different manners and to different extend to"kill the game".
Now no matter the historical strenghs of these encounters and how the match turn out while they trying to reach an acceptable street price for the average gamers, Nintendo is already feeding a part of this market.
there is room for them for sure, the wii is not for everyone but clearly Wii and ps360 market overlap. Clearly I don't expect the ps360 to reach at some point the actual Wii sales.
EDIT may be by the end of this gen when Wii will really look dated but who knows about the Wii2/EDIT
For Ms specific case, I guess right the offer is a bit messy, and I don't feel like their doing proper effort to clear the channel.
Why do slight drop on the 20GB introduce @350$ a new pro pack with a 60GB HDD, and then some month latter do a tiny price drop once again?
It's messy/confusing I can't be properly advertized, etc.
Looks like Ms is laking agressivity, no longer sure about their goals.
Be profitable is respectable but in their situation it's a short term view. Sony is still stronger as brand and as an actor on the market (I state that in regard to stuio/editing power).
Ms should accept at least to barely break up for some more years, it's no longer about losing money.
And if they don't this this gen it will likely cost them moreto do so by the next generation.
Ms should have do the price drop and the introduction of the new SKU all together and make it vocal.
Like
No HD=199 (make this vocal too)
20BG=250$ till we run out of stock.
60GB=299
120GB=399
I would go even further MS needs to discontinue its multi sku offers.
It's a mess, I heard at some point rumors here stating that MS may consider an upgrade pack for the arcade pack and that the way to go.
Ms offers should like this, the 360 is the arcade pack and it's available @199$ (with some games I don't remember the exact offer).
That's it clear neat.
Want an HDD, a microphone+headset buy the a pack @100$.
Want more buy the elite online pack @ 200$ (between for the 120GB is not enough for the price and by far... and they could include the wifi adapter for example).
It would have side effect stop the constant speculations about the perenity of the arcade pack. And from now would make upgrade of HDD capacity a non issue.
And other thing Ms may consider is to drop the ball (as they did on the Pc side) is to stop the gold/sliver membership non-sense.
IMO it's become more and more bothering as ps3 user base grows and prices goes down.
For example Ms charges too much for accessories, it's no where near as bothering.
OK some will once again say it's not expansive and it's not the point, it's ill percieved by most gamers IMO.
It could have some side effect, the guy who buys a arcade pack and is more a single player type can discover online playing and then buy an expansive HDD, etc. Possible extra revenues.
If MS is able to do that they may be in a better situation to face say in some months (say when the ps3 catch up in user base).
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