NPD January 2008

[scooby_dooby]

Interesting rumour on MS current mobo designs:

There is not one but two secret Xbox cats that Microsoft has kept in the bag. Currently there are three more Xbox 360 motherboards in the works right now. They are.. dun dun dun.. Jasper, Opus and Valhalla.

It's well known that the next Xbox 360 motherboard is going to be Jasper and it going to have both a 65 nm CPU and a 65 nm GPU. Jasper is going to be a major advancement in reliability since it is going to run much quieter than previous Xbox 360 systems. Jasper's reliability is in part to the fact that there is no place on the motherboard that is going to be running as hot or as much power as previous Xbox 360 systems, also it might run a lot quieter since it will not need as much power.
Jasper is very real and they are testing prototypes right now. Word from Redmond is that progress on Jasper is going well and on schedule and you can expect it fall of 2008.

The Opus project is a "Falcon" generation motherboard designed to fit in a Xenon case. You can expect an 90 nm GPU but a 65 nm CPU. Opus solves a major hardware recycling and inventory problem since Microsoft currently has millions of used Xenon cases from RRODed dead systems and this lets them use most of the good parts from the millions of dead Xenons but with a newer tested more reliable motherboard. There is no HDMI on Opus since the Xenon cases don't have openings for the port. Opus is a third generation Xbox 360 in the case of a first.

Now they are also in the very early stages of designing the fourth generation Xbox 360 called Valhalla.

At the heart of a Valhalla Xbox 360 is a combined 65nm CPU and 65nm GPU on a unified super chip. This also would only need one cooling system and be much quieter and hopefully more reliable than previous Xbox systems (if they include hardware JTAG testing reporting into the design). It is really early in the design process but there are engineers at Microsoft working on it as you are reading this.

Microsoft has planned on near annual changes to the Xbox 360 motherboard generation designs. First was the Xenon motherboard from 2005-06, then followed by the Zephyr motherboard 2006-2007, then the Falcon Motherboard 2007-now. Probably later on this year we will see the Jasper Motherboard 2008-2009. Then then comes Valhalla the year four motherboard in late 2009 or mid 2010.

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/digitaljoystick/archives/132014.asp?from=blog_last3

Could be what is happenign right now, they are retrofitting all the old cases with this new Opus/Falcon motherboards, until they can roll out the Jasper model this fall.

 

[Teasy]

Wow @ the PS3 numbers. They almost even outsold the Wii this month. That would have been HUGE! They were only 5000 short of that.

No, what you meant to say is they almost sold as well as Wii..

I find it stunning that both MS and Nintendo can have shortages 26 and 14 months into their lives respectively. Whoever does their forecasting needs to be taken out the back and beaten Seriously, what a way to lose face.

Its called having a successful console, at least in Wii's case (360 shortages may have something to do with the new designs).. No amount of time or forcasts will make a console plentiful if it continues to sell as many, or even more, then its possible to make each month. Simple isn't it really? Its easy to have plenty of stock available if people just don't want your console.

What I find stunning, well actually its more funny since its not really surprising enough to stun me, is the carnival atmosphere this data has created among the Sony fan community. This is quite clearly a case of two consoles with shortages and one without. After all both Wii and 360 sold over 2 million consoles in the last 2 months while PS3 sold just over 1 million. The result is a respectable month for PS3 for once, not even a great month, just respectable, and its being greeted with champagne and party poppers..

 

[Crossbar]

Interesting rumour on MS current mobo designs:



http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/digitaljoystick/archives/132014.asp?from=blog_last3

Could be what is happenign right now, they are retrofitting all the old cases with this new Opus/Falcon motherboards, until they can roll out the Jasper model this fall.

Sounds like BS to me, merging the chips on a 65 nm process doesn´t sound likely to me and what is that noobish crap about JTAG being the mean to get a more reliable console?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Sounds like BS to me, merging the chips on a 65 nm process

Wasn't that always thought to be the end goal for the 360 chipset?

 

[zed]

since Microsoft currently has millions of used Xenon cases from RRODed dead systems and this lets them use most of the good parts from the millions of dead Xenons

im backing away from my pricecut comment (though its always nice), a better option for MS is to have a redesigned xb360 out like now.
im sure theres a large segment of public that want to get a xb360 but are hesitant cause of the hardware issues, whilst ppl argue they will repair it for free in the US its still a hassle. would u buy a car if u knew theres a fair chance that it will break down on the road?, even if they'ld come + repair it for free. its a PITA.

a redesigned SKU would be like a fresh start in the public's eye, provided they fix the hardware issues of course with it

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I've opened a tech thread for the process shrink speculation. Can we keep all that discussion there please and this thread kept to the last NPD results.

 

[D3B]

No, what you meant to say is they almost sold as well as Wii..



Its called having a successful console, at least in Wii's case (360 shortages may have something to do with the new designs).. No amount of time or forcasts will make a console plentiful if it continues to sell as many, or even more, then its possible to make each month. Simple isn't it really? Its easy to have plenty of stock available if people just don't want your console.

What I find stunning, well actually its more funny since its not really surprising enough to stun me, is the carnival atmosphere this data has created among the Sony fan community. This is quite clearly a case of two consoles with shortages and one without. After all both Wii and 360 sold over 2 million consoles in the last 2 months while PS3 sold just over 1 million. The result is a respectable month for PS3 for once, not even a great month, just respectable, and its being greeted with champagne and party poppers..

I find it stunning that the shortage info only comes a day before NPD.
Not one analyst expected these numbers.

 

[desmond]

That's certainly my take.

It seems MS is having trouble manufacturing they're new 65nm units, and wants to limit the sales of the original failure-prone units.

My quess is that they are limiting supply of the old units as much as they think is reasonable, and are preparing for a large pricedrop this spring where they will roll out the new models en masse.

The strategy could be pretty effective. They will increase the pent up demand over these months, so by combining a pricedrop with a surge in units available, they could see some great sales over spring/summer 08.

interesting theory although i don't understand how ms will be able to demonstrate that new units have lower failure rates. at this point they claim less than 10%.

 

[valioso]

interesting theory although i don't understand how ms will be able to demonstrate that new units have lower failure rates. at this point they claim less than 10%.

word of mouth, when people buy them and notice them not breaking?

 

[AlNom]

word of mouth, when people buy them and notice them not breaking?

In my experience, people only notice good things before they purchase something, and only bad things afterwards.

 

[Dave Baumann]

interesting theory although i don't understand how ms will be able to demonstrate that new units have lower failure rates. at this point they claim less than 10%.

I'd say the easiest way of highlighting "new, more reliable" units would be by giving the externals a redesign.

 

[valioso]

In my experience, people only notice good things before they purchase something, and only bad things afterwards.

People are still buying it as they are now, so I don't necessarily think they need to demonstrate much of anything, they'll say is more reliable because is cooler and that'll be it, IMO. I wish they would consolidate everything on one sku like I mentioned earlier, but I dont think they will.

 

[scooby_dooby]

interesting theory although i don't understand how ms will be able to demonstrate that new units have lower failure rates. at this point they claim less than 10%.

Well I don't think they need to. With the 3-year warrantee it appears as though consumers are satisfied. It certainly doesn't seem that the high failure rate has had a significant impact on their sales, at least in North America.

From MS's standpoint, it's just important that they stop selling these faulty units, because they are essentially throwing money away with each unit they sell.

 

[TheChefO]

they'll have enough of a platform to be targeted so they get the games which, along with the exclusives, means it was a worthwhile investment.

Sad thing is, it doesn't work like that all the time.

See: GC last gen

The only way to guarantee most if not all 3rd party games will be on your platform is to have the leading platform. Even still there will always be an exclusive here or there, but being the lead console has it's advantages.


With that said, congrats to Sony for doing what it took to stay competitive late last year and biting the bullet on costs.

To MS, you had your chance, now buckle up and get ready for a long ride.

To N, exactly how much profit have you made at this point? A success no matter what.

 

[mrcorbo]

I find it stunning that the shortage info only comes a day before NPD.
Not one analyst expected these numbers.

Was that really the first you heard of shortages? People have been consistently commenting on Pro systems being thin on the ground since early Jan.

PS3 continues to gain steam. I'm not going to make comparisons to the other systems, because with the supply issues they are pretty meaningless, but by it's own prior standards this is a good month and the system seems to finally be on a consistent upward trend. The 40GB @ $399 in additional to all the value-adds to the platform that have been accumulating over the last 6-8 mos finally seem to have created the necessary perception of value for consumers that was lacking in the early life of the system. I expect these types of sales numbers to be the new baseline for the PS3 from here on.

It's going to be an interesting year and I expect big things and a few surprises from all the console manufacturers. It really is a great time to be a gamer!

 

[Nesh]

Sad thing is, it doesn't work like that all the time.

See: GC last gen

The only way to guarantee most if not all 3rd party games will be on your platform is to have the leading platform. Even still there will always be an exclusive here or there, but being the lead console has it's advantages.


With that said, congrats to Sony for doing what it took to stay competitive late last year and biting the bullet on costs.

To MS, you had your chance, now buckle up and get ready for a long ride.

To N, exactly how much profit have you made at this point? A success no matter what.

In this gen though which exactly is the lead platform?
Things are more complicated than last gen

 

[Zassk]

Definitely more complicated... there have never been 3 successful platforms in the same generation before. At this point, it doesn't look like any of the 3 can be marginalized before the end of this generation.

 

[AzBat]

Microsoft's take on NPD January:

Xbox 360 experienced a record-setting holiday that has not slowed down in 2008. NPD today reported that in January, Microsoft sold 230,000 Xbox 360 consoles. Our retailers are telling us that Xbox 360 is selling as fast as they can restock, but due to this high demand, Xbox 360 is experiencing temporary shortages. We are working as quickly as we can to replenish inventory.

• In January, $297 million was spent on the Xbox 360 platform (hardware, software and accessories combined), compared to $244 million on Wii and $219 million on PS3. (U.S. NPD, January)
• $159 million was spent on Xbox 360 games alone in January compared to $131 million on Wii and $80 million for PS3. (U.S. NPD, January)
• Total customer spending on Xbox 360 life-to-date now reaches nearly $8.6 billion; this is more than double PS3 and Wii combined. (U.S. NPD, January)
• Six of the top 10 best selling games in January are on Xbox 360’s platform. (U.S. NPD, January)
• After five months on the market, “Halo 3” continues to make the top 10 best selling games list according to NPD with 127,000 additional units sold in January. (U.S. NPD, January)
• Third party publishers made 61 percent of their retail revenue, this generation, on Xbox 360 compared to 20 percent on Wii and 18 percent on PS3. (U.S. NPD, January)
• Xbox 360 has 83 titles with a Metacritic review score of 80 or higher compared to just 42 for PS3 and 14 for Wii.

http://gamerscoreblog.com/team/archive/2008/02/15/557399.aspx

Tommy McClain

 

[D3B]

Yes, because none of us mentioned it in other threads weeks ago...

So why did analyst who are paid and have inside info didnt predict?

simExchange
Xbox 360: 289,000 units
PS3: 200,000 units

Micheal Pachter
Xbox 360: 290,000
PS3: 240,000

 

[djskribbles]

i think those people did know about the shortages, which is why they had the PS3 and 360 closer than usual (but with the 360 still on top). whats surprising to me and what the good news for Sony is, they sold more than anyone else thought they would. 269k for a four week month post holiday season is pretty darn good for the PS3. whether or not this is a temporary bump because of the success of blu-ray remains to be seen. but maybe this is just what Sony needs to build momentum for this year.