NPD January 2008

[Graham]

This guy is usually surprisingly accurate in his guesses (which he always backs up with pretty solid reasoning and research). His take is that the 360 'shortage' is intentional, either to clear inventory of potentially defective units - or to make way for new models / pricing. Both are quite logical at the point. I'd guess we will hear more soon (say, GDC).

The logic is simply that if MS didn't plan for a ~25% increase in sales over last years holidays, then what on earth were they thinking. A logical answer is that this shortage is planned - or something has gone badly wrong.

I see this month as a bad sign for nintendo. Their monthly lead has shrunk dramatically.

A level playing field is the best for the industry. Although Microsoft and Nintendo are going to need to kick it up a notch to stay competitive in the public eye.

 

[Platon]

Yep, it is difficult to understand that MS after so long on the market to have shortages all of the sudden. Maybe there is some true to the chanel clearing thing, but we will see...

 

[patsu]

Yap, that's what I thought too. MS is regrouping (hardware and software-wise). GDC should be interesting to watch.

Also, let's see if the uncertain economy have a sustained effect on sales.

 

[AlphaWolf]

This guy is usually surprisingly accurate in his guesses (which he always backs up with pretty solid reasoning and research). His take is that the 360 'shortage' is intentional, either to clear inventory of potentially defective units - or to make way for new models / pricing. Both are quite logical at the point. I'd guess we will hear more soon (say, GDC).

The elite SKU is less than a year old, HDMI was added ~6 months ago, and the arcade is only 3-4 months old, I don't expect them to be messing around with SKU's until they can offer a new package like a slim or something (new processes). The only thing I can think at this point is a price cut. Now the question is how low will they go? I expect they will stay conservative and drop $50 on the pro and arcade, maybe $100 on the elite considering its luster has been reduced with the addition of hdmi to the other sku's.

 

[zed]

LOL shortages!!, after being >2 years on the market
when did MS first mention the shortages? i believe it was today or yesterday (mere hours before the NPD data), hmmmmm

seriously i guess this confirms xb360 will be getting a pricecut within 2 months, the question is how much $50 across the board i think, though this leads to the vanity issue of it potentially being outsold by the more expensive wii

speaking of the wii, bad numbers, yes i know they flew over some of jans stock for christmas, but even still

this has made february a lot more interesting

 

[Limanima]

It's not meant to be a troll, it's how I see it.

If people are buying PS3 games, I'd love to see the sales numbers to back that up. Month after month, theres little to no bestselling PS3 games. Every time we see platform sales numbers, PS3 are way in the back too. I don't think it's a troll to argue that there's a huge number of people primarily using their PS3s as Bluray players (I'm one of them).

Do you know anything about math?
It certainly would be a disaster for Wii and XBox if there were more PS3 titles in the top 10.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Dammit, this is turning out to be a huge pain in the ass. I already have a 2nd 360 as a dev kit, but we went looking today with some coder friends for them to get 2nd 360's as devkits (they are helping me with an xna project), and after checking 8 stores we couldn't find them anywhere. Target, Best Buy, Gamestop, Frys, Costco, etc, not one 360 to be found. This is ridiculous. I guess they will have to prototype the game on the pc

They've replenished supply in my area this week.

LOL shortages!!, after being >2 years on the market
when did MS first mention the shortages? i believe it was today or yesterday (mere hours before the NPD data), hmmmmm

see joker's post above... the shortages are real and have been observed, you'll note that even Amazon.com lists them as out of stock until the 23rd of feb. The reason for the shortages is really the question.

 

[Arwin]

I'm willing to bet we'll get a cheaper SKU for GTA. Will be interesting to see how Sony responds (assuming that it won't come as a big surprise to them).

 

[djskribbles]

if MS doesn't have a price drop, i would:
introduce the white 40GB with DS3 for 399.99 - drop price of 40GB SM3 SKU to 349.99. introduce a new 160GB model with DS3 for 499.99, and if theres any 80GB models left, drop it to 449.99. if MS does have a price drop, lower all prices by 50. yeah i know, thats a lot of SKU's... but eventually, there will be 3 SKU's. then Sony should stop introducing new SKUs! (until the slim model that is)

edit: i also think Sony should phaseout the SM3 bundle, and give us a choice between white or black for the DS3 bundles. so there will essentially be two models, but four SKU's (each color needs a SKU, right?)

 

[Arwin]

Well yes, that's the thing - it's very likely that Sony will come with a DS3 bundle at the latest when MGS4 comes out, but maybe they'll try to get it out before GTA IV. We'll have to wait and see how that model turns out. I'm sure we'll hear rumors a plenty soon. But first I'm looking forward to GDC

 

[Rangers]

I hate to be a dick to all the Sony fans but let me put this in perspective..with a 5.8 million USA lead in install base, if PS3 were to win by 200,000 a month for the next 29 months to pull even. Which puts us in June 2010. I'm sure +200k a month can be agreed as a nearly impossible number anyway, because 360 isn't going to sit still, not drop any prices and not come out with anymore highly anticipated games. Even SonyCowboy at GAF said 360 likely could have sold 300k this month without shortages. Which is really positive because it's hugely above last January weekly rates.

I think Sony has a good chance to win Feb too based on MS statements, and what I'm seeing supply wise the last two weeks which seemed worse than January. March the battle should be back on I guess if MS is too be believed.

As for the speculation about what is behind the scenes with 360 shortage here, it's hugely interesting. I've long believe a price drop is coming as soon as GDC. But I dont really have any evidence of that and it seemed it would have leaked by now. Surfer girl (game rumor blog) has claimed at least one 360 sku will get integrated wireless in 2008. That could be something at play here, or not. One thing I noticed was BestBuy.com stock is now no longer the holiday Forza/Marvel bundles, it's back to normal plain premium's. So..I dunno.

 

[Rangers]

One thing I dont think people have touched on is what's up with low DS sales? Sellouts too? Or is that natural?

Would have been nice if PS3 could have topped Wii just for the shock factor

Lets see, AFAIK 360 topped Wii once, in September. Would have been only the second time Wii was topped.

 

[Silent]

Given the fact that there's virtually no PS3 games that came out in January or any pricecut to justify the sales, the only differentiator I can see is the Bluray announcement. And given previous NPD statistics on standalone Bluray players, they went through the roof in January -- the only conclusion anyone can reasonably draw here is Bluray is the one and only reason the PS3 finished as strong as it did this month.

It's funny because when the news about warner came out there where a lot of people jumping around telling that blu ray won't/doesn't have an impact. Sometimes it is hard to follow.

But I don't think it is intellectual correct to state that PS3 owners aren't buying games because not allof of titles are in the top 10. Especially if you know that the installbase is allot smaller. If you look at places like Europe where the difference isn't that big you see that the situation is allot different.

Even the "360 owners had allot to choose from" seems a weak argument. Not everybody buys all games that comes out in a month. Not everyone likes al genres and some people do make a selection. I dislike most racing games so I didn't buy Forza 2 even if it is a good game in his genre.

And still even if their was some truth in your argument that people are buying the PS3 only for Blu Ray. Allot of those people will buy games eventually. Is it out curiosity or because the machine also can play games. That is just human nature.

 

[inefficient]

I don't think they will ever bundle the DS3. The people who want one will just go and buy one.

 

[Arwin]

I'm 100% sure they will bundle it. They may have a cheapest SKU without it, but I think they may well phase out the non-rumble one completely. (I'm thinking of previous examples of Sony introducing new controllers and controller variations)

 

[deepbrown]

I'm 100% sure they will bundle it. They may have a cheapest SKU without it, but I think they may well phase out the non-rumble one completely. (I'm thinking of previous examples of Sony introducing new controllers and controller variations)

They will bundle it with MGS4. Kojima won't let his game be played without rumble.

 

[valioso]

They will bundle it with MGS4. Kojima won't let his game be played without rumble.

I don't think they would bundle it with a game, but I am sure it will be bundled with systems when it officially launches in the US, maybe a discount buy MGS4 get 20% off DS3

 

[deepbrown]

I hate to be a dick to all the Sony fans but let me put this in perspective..with a 5.8 million USA lead in install base, if PS3 were to win by 200,000 a month for the next 29 months to pull even. Which puts us in June 2010. I'm sure +200k a month can be agreed as a nearly impossible number anyway, because 360 isn't going to sit still, not drop any prices and not come out with anymore highly anticipated games. Even SonyCowboy at GAF said 360 likely could have sold 300k this month without shortages. Which is really positive because it's hugely above last January weekly rates.

I think Sony has a good chance to win Feb too based on MS statements, and what I'm seeing supply wise the last two weeks which seemed worse than January. March the battle should be back on I guess if MS is too be believed.

As for the speculation about what is behind the scenes with 360 shortage here, it's hugely interesting. I've long believe a price drop is coming as soon as GDC. But I dont really have any evidence of that and it seemed it would have leaked by now. Surfer girl (game rumor blog) has claimed at least one 360 sku will get integrated wireless in 2008. That could be something at play here, or not. One thing I noticed was BestBuy.com stock is now no longer the holiday Forza/Marvel bundles, it's back to normal plain premium's. So..I dunno.

Why would they need to outsell by 200,000 every month? Surely selling 1million more in a Holiday period would do it. What about last years sales? The Xbox 360 was at 10.5million at beginning of 2007....they are now at 17million. The PS3 is at nearly 10million I believe.

So did the 360 sell 1-2million less in 2007 than 2006 even though it had its biggest hits ever with Bioshock, Halo3 and Mass Effect? Hasn't the PS3 already made up a lot of ground, even though it's apparently not selling very well and is too expensive?

 

[deepbrown]

I don't think they would bundle it with a game, but I am sure it will be bundled with systems when it officially launches in the US, maybe a discount buy MGS4 get 20% off DS3

Aye I can see that. I'm surprised noone saw Kojima's hints of the DS3 months before it was announced. His comments amounted to "I'd really like rumble in my game, but I won't patch it, I want it in there from the beginning" (to Kotaku's Brian)

 

[deepbrown]

But I don't think it is intellectual correct to state that PS3 owners aren't buying games because not allof of titles are in the top 10. Especially if you know that the installbase is allot smaller. If you look at places like Europe where the difference isn't that big you see that the situation is allot different.

The percentage of sales per install base for COD4 on each console is at approximately 23% on PS3 and 27% on Xbox 360. Assassin's Creed is 23% on PS3 and 20% on Xbox 360.

So looking at overall sales and saying games aren't selling on PS3 is wrong...they are inline with their Xbox 360 counterparts, but there are just less owners. It'll be interesting to see how DMC4 and GTA4 sales pan out....at the moment the PS3 version of DMC4 isn't very far behind the 360 version in the US.