NPD January 2008

[AlphaWolf]

So why did analyst who are paid and have inside info didnt predict?

You are using someones wrong guesses as the basis for this argument?

However, both the numbers you quote have the 360 and ps3 much closer to each other than the recent actual numbers have been so it looks like they were on to something only under estimated the impact of the shortage.

There is no spoon....

 

[joker454]

They've replenished supply in my area this week.

Still no luck finding one in our area If anyone spots a 360 premium in the LA area, message me!

 

[AlphaWolf]

Still no luck finding one in our area If anyone spots a 360 premium in the LA area, message me!

ya I should actually amend that, while walmart and futureshop did get in some units futureshop is already sold out again (3days and I saw at least 20 boxes of premium and elites, I haven't been back to walmart), and today I was in TRU and they only had 1 arcade box in stock.

 

[Rangers]

I'm sure this has already been covered but I started thinking what was different for PS3 this month. Because, we recall 360 sold 1.3m and PS3 sold 800k in December, when PS3 was fully in stock so, the question becomes, what actually changed between Dec and Jan?

The possible answers imo are: Warner switch/Blu Ray winning. Possible substitute purchases of people not finding 360 and switching to PS3. That's pretty much it.

 

[one]

I'm sure this has already been covered but I started thinking what was different for PS3 this month. Because, we recall 360 sold 1.3m and PS3 sold 800k in December, when PS3 was fully in stock so, the question becomes, what actually changed between Dec and Jan?

The possible answers imo are: Warner switch/Blu Ray winning. Possible substitute purchases of people not finding 360 and switching to PS3. That's pretty much it.

I don't see the necessity to assume there was a sudden change in consumer demand for PS3. Warner's switch was a result of consumer choices so far. If you say PS3 was fully in stock in Dec, it's still in stock in Jan too. It's a circular argument to rationalize 360's shortage.

 

[Rangers]

I don't see the necessity to assume there was a sudden change in consumer demand for PS3. Warner's switch was a result of consumer choices so far. If you say PS3 was fully in stock in Dec, it's still in stock in Jan too. It's a circular argument to rationalize 360's shortage.

Warners switch was because Blu Ray is in PS3, which led to higher disk sales..as well as a Warner's desire to jumpstart the flagging HD market due to DVD sales sliding, but that's another argument..

Also, I had forgot another possible difference, the announcment that 80GB PS3's are going away perhaps led to a January run on them. I noticed tonight that 80GB is for the first time out of stock on Amazon, a possible sign the channel is running dry.

I'm not really sure what you're arguing one..maybe that demand was simply higher for all consoles but only PS3 had the stock to take advantage? It's possible.

I dont discount PS3 demand rising, I just think it would be more gradual. Especially since I dont recall any particular PS3 games of note being announced or shown in Jan. I'm looking for abrupt differences between Jan-Dec.

 

[Rangers]

Here was something interesting posted on GAF, comparison to Jan 2003

NPD Comparison (2003)

PS2 ($199) 452 K

Xbox($199) 163 k

GC ($149) 81k

Total is 696k. PS3+360+Wii total is 773k. At incredibly higher price points.

Seems this generation is doing quite a bit better especially in dollars sold..

I think this generation you have almost no weak cousin. There is no Gamecube clearly falling behind. If anything 360 might be closest to that WW but it's a lot stronger than GC.

Also from the dept of GAF reposting, weekly adjusted percent rise/fall year over year

PS3: 138%
360: 98%
Wii: 79%
DS: 131%
PSP: 136%

 

[liolio]

When I saw this numbers I was pretty much schocked! I didn't heear that much report about shortage!
Anyway no matter what the 360 score is the ps3 has ramped up to nice standart for a january month!

So it makes me think of my comment in the 'MS vs Europe" thread MS has to secure its lead in US to expect better result in Europe, may be MS can afford two slow month but that's it... more would be a disaster.
MS is really in need for their next hardware revision to be ready before mid/end 2008.
I can't believe how it take to MS to switch to a full 65 nm design!

 

[Scott_Arm]

Just saw this article linked on hardocp. http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,142531-c,gameconsoles/article.html

What is iSuppli, and are they reliable? The say there are 18.2 million xbox360s in the home and 18 million Wiis. They list the PS3 last at 10.3 million.

I don't really follow worldwide numbers closely, but from NPD and other sources, do those even look remotely accurate?

 

[mrcorbo]

I dont discount PS3 demand rising, I just think it would be more gradual. Especially since I dont recall any particular PS3 games of note being announced or shown in Jan. I'm looking for abrupt differences between Jan-Dec.

I think we all have a tendency sometimes to put too much emphasis on recent events when evaluating changes in consumer demand and forget all the prior occurrences that, while they were not enough to move the needle on their own, made it possible for the more recent events to have an effect.

It's very possible that there is no abrupt difference, but instead was a subtle change or changes that when stacked on top of a long line of other subtle/not so subtle changes became a tipping point for a greater number of people.

 

[zed]

Just saw this article linked on hardocp. http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,142531-c,gameconsoles/article.html

What is iSuppli, and are they reliable? The say there are 18.2 million xbox360s in the home and 18 million Wiis. They list the PS3 last at 10.3 million.

I don't really follow worldwide numbers closely, but from NPD and other sources, do those even look remotely accurate?

it could be how it was a few months ago, but not now, if we add NPD+media create numbers together wii is leading the xb360 by 3million, its also outsold the 360 in all other countries worldwide (except for maybe nz)

'd say the easiest way of highlighting "new, more reliable" units would be by giving the externals a redesign.

yep thats what im guessing they will do, personally i found the xb360 the best looking of the 3 consoles, make it a bit smaller + included the PSU + release with a few different colors im sure a lot more ppl will snap it up

of course now theyre gonna have to come up with a title for this redesigned machine, it will have to convey its better than premium + elite
xb360 paramount perhaps, or my moneys on xbox360 super dooper trooper

 

[Johnny Awesome]

It's pretty clear that X360 and Wii shortgages have made PS3 look good this month.

 

[djskribbles]

It's pretty clear that X360 and Wii shortgages have made PS3 look good this month.

yes, but looking at the PS3 numbers alone, theres no denying the numbers are good, considering January was a 4 week month and its post holiday season.

 

[Tap In]

yes, but looking at the PS3 numbers alone, theres no denying the numbers are good, considering January was a 4 week month and its post holiday season.

yes not bad but really about the same as January 2007 and then the numbers plumetted

 

[djskribbles]

yeah but that was near the PS3's launch; its normal for sales to drop months after launch... i don't see why sales would drop that significantly this year. 269k is a huge improvement over the numbers they were getting pre-holiday season. also, iirc, 2007 january was a 5 week period, whereas this years was a 4 week yet they still managed to sell more this year.

and don 't you mean Jan 2007.

 

[fallguy]

It's pretty clear that X360 and Wii shortgages have made PS3 look good this month.

Tell them to stop playing shortage games then. Or get MS to fix the rrod issue so they can stop sending out new units to people who sent in their broken ones.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Tell them to stop playing shortage games then. Or get MS to fix the rrod issue so they can stop sending out new units to people who sent in their broken ones.

Good idea, he can just get on the phone and tell MS how to run their business.

 

[....]

When I saw this numbers I was pretty much schocked! I didn't heear that much report about shortage!
Anyway no matter what the 360 score is the ps3 has ramped up to nice standart for a january month!

So it makes me think of my comment in the 'MS vs Europe" thread MS has to secure its lead in US to expect better result in Europe, may be MS can afford two slow month but that's it... more would be a disaster.
MS is really in need for their next hardware revision to be ready before mid/end 2008.
I can't believe how it take to MS to switch to a full 65 nm design!

I think part of march will likely fall too, if not most of it, if I read the comments right. So it could be jan, feb, march.

 

[Mintmaster]

yeah but that was near the PS3's launch; its normal for sales to drop months after launch...

Yeah, but this is months after the $399 model launch, which is a pretty key price point. We've seen temporary spikes in the past with PS3 price drops/upgrades, so it's not unreasonable to expect that we're witnessing another.

We'll see what explanations and solutions we get for the 360 shortages in the coming weeks. My guess is MS is planning something for the months before the GTA launch.

 

[....]

Yeah, but this is months after the $399 model launch, which is a pretty key price point. We've seen temporary spikes in the past with PS3 price drops/upgrades, so it's not unreasonable to expect that we're witnessing another.

We'll see what explanations and solutions we get for the 360 shortages in the coming weeks. My guess is MS is planning something for the months before the GTA launch.

Wasn't that ps3 price cut in november? And isn't microsoft saying they'll have shortages for february and likely march too?