NPD February 2007

[liolio]

Actually there's no way the Xbox 360 could survive in the next decade without a built-in Blu-ray drive since that would be standard by then. It's a possibility that Xbox 360 dies the moment Xbox "720" comes out, which they're saying will be 2012.

It's a possibility but it's not very likely.
If the 360 live up to 2012, it's likely that it will have sold very well.

So like sony with its ps2, ms won't be under pressure to cut price under 130$.(my expectation is that the market will be pretty even, at some point all actors will live with their market share, stop the war and make profits).

So If the 360 success lasts, I think that the most likely possibility is that the 360 will die of its own when the market for such a low end device will get too tiny.

 

[Carl B]

The two go hand in hand though don't they?

Well, no they don't - although the later should naturally lead to the former, the reverse (good guessing) does not by itself indicate the later.

It's like this, let's take Sodoku for the PS3 - similar to the pen and paper version except that if you guess the correct number in a box, it tells you you did so.

Me and my girlfriend like to play this, and of course for me, the *only* way to play is to put a number in a box once I have total 100% confidence. Her, she'll happily guess away. There are plenty of situations where there's a 50/50 shot at a number, and she'll just go ahead and be right. So, she was accurate, but is this the sort of methodology you can count on in terms of predictions and advice in life?

This is why when I hear analyst predictions about a console that hasn't even launched yet, they go immediately into my mental trash bin. That and I rant about it on this forum. It's not anything to do with their actual numbers, and everything to do with knowing they have zero good info to go off of in reaching them, and that their methodologies are by extension based on such.

We must always act as information aggregators - when we get it, we need the source, once we have it, we determine the causes, and once determined, we look for the trends and variations. Numbers are data, and they don't themselves the pattern make - they represent a pattern, but it's up to the individuals critical thinking abilities to interpret it (whether it be correctly or incorrectly). Critical thinking excercises in schools; that's what this country needs more of ASAP.

 

[NERO]

With all of the armchair analysis going on about the future of the current console cycle, anyone care to discuss (maybe open another thread) on why and how the last cycle was won. Surely it will shed some light on the proper indicators for forecasting if we look at the pieces in the last cycle. Many may dismiss and say, "well once the PS2 hit sub-x price it exploded...", but it already had the lead before that. Let's talk last-gen.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Yeah, practically one big gun per month, sometimes even more, from May through the rest of the year. And already have a few announced games for 2008, and then there are some other games without any release date at all.
For example people seem to forget about Wolfenstein and the next id game - I think they'll be quite big too.

Everyone forgets about SC:5 exclusive from Ubisoft Montreal. It's going to be HUGE.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Me and my girlfriend like to play this, and of course for me, the *only* way to play is to put a number in a box once I have total 100% confidence. Her, she'll happily guess away.

God, talk about ruining the entire point of the game!! Women...

 

[TheChefO]

Well, no they don't - although the later should naturally lead to the former, the reverse (good guessing) does not by itself indicate the later.

It's like this, let's take Sodoku for the PS3 - similar to the pen and paper version except that if you guess the correct number in a box, it tells you you did so.

Me and my girlfriend like to play this, and of course for me, the *only* way to play is to put a number in a box once I have total 100% confidence. Her, she'll happily guess away. There are plenty of situations where there's a 50/50 shot at a number, and she'll just go ahead and be right. So, she was accurate, but is this the sort of methodology you can count on in terms of predictions and advice in life?

This is why when I hear analyst predictions about a console that hasn't even launched yet, they go immediately into my mental trash bin. That and I rant about it on this forum. It's not anything to do with their actual numbers, and everything to do with knowing they have zero good info to go off of in reaching them, and that their methodologies are by extension based on such.

We must always act as information aggregators - when we get it, we need the source, once we have it, we determine the causes, and once determined, we look for the trends and variations. Numbers are data, and they don't themselves the pattern make - they represent a pattern, but it's up to the individuals critical thinking abilities to interpret it (whether it be correctly or incorrectly). Critical thinking excercises in schools; that's what this country needs more of ASAP.

Agreed - good post.

However information was available prior to launch that would enable one to get an idea for how things might shape up. Not for certain of course as ps3 was a very different animal than any before it. Not only in a bubble but in context to the competition it was/is very unique.

Predictions were based on:
What is the ps brand worth ($) to how many people?
How many good AAA games can they get out in x time?
What does the competitive landscape look like?

Personal bias aside, (good luck, I know) this painted a very questionable situation for Sony that many shrugged off based on brand loyalty alone. "Not I", said the chef, as he was smacked around the halls of b3d like a red-headed step child. (fos)

In looking back at your late year numbers prediction, I think you're a bit low in your Oct, Nov, and Dec timeframe. The software released in these months should significantly boost already healthy Christmas sales.

my take:
300k+ oct
500k+ nov
900k+ dec

 

[TheChefO]

With all of the armchair analysis going on about the future of the current console cycle, anyone care to discuss (maybe open another thread) on why and how the last cycle was won. Surely it will shed some light on the proper indicators for forecasting if we look at the pieces in the last cycle. Many may dismiss and say, "well once the PS2 hit sub-x price it exploded...", but it already had the lead before that. Let's talk last-gen.

Good idea, I'll contribute to your thread Nero.

 

[NERO]

Good idea, I'll contribute to your thread Nero.

Great. I'm currently trying to look for (ok, google) some info on all 4 consoles that battled in the last cycle. Numbers such as units sold per month (since inception), price and AAA titles that were released. This should be a decent starting point.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Great. I'm currently trying to look for (ok, google) some info on all 4 consoles that battled in the last cycle. Numbers such as units sold per month (since inception), price and AAA titles that were released. This should be a decent starting point.

I dunno, it's all pretty simple really. PS2 captured the most marketshare because dev's didn't have faith in DC, and GC was marketed to kids (big purple box?). Xbox came around too late to make any difference in the end.

The success of PS2 is no mystery, they hit the right pricepoint at the right time, and secured 3rd party developer support. Those are the only 2 factors that matter, price and game library. The rest is history.

 

[NERO]

I dunno, it's all pretty simple really. PS2 captured the most marketshare because dev's didn't have faith in DC, and GC was marketed to kids (big purple box?). Xbox came around too late to make any difference in the end.

The success of PS2 is no mystery, they hit the right pricepoint at the right time, and secured 3rd party developer support. Those are the only 2 factors that matter, price and game library. The rest is history.

You are correct overall but the since numbers keep being thrown around we might as well see where things happened in the cycle. Why didn't the devs have faith in the DC? Did the Xbox' late entry matter that much...etc? I'm much more curious about the PS2's lead before the $100 drop.

 

[patsu]

Personal bias aside, (good luck, I know) this painted a very questionable situation for Sony that many shrugged off based on brand loyalty alone.

Not "just brand loyalty"... but bad press, broken promises, high price point (no 20Gb PS3 inventory in Feb), short month, little software, zero vision/direction (at that time), etc. In short, you can still attribute the low sales to some tangible and believable reasons.

In GDC, they really surprised me with their vision and capability. There are (still) positive and exciting things to look forward to.

The way Sony mis-managed their launch is almost comical compared to their GDC performance (These guys are nuts -- not incompetent or arrogant -- but clearly trying to do something unique).

All I'm saying is... too early to tell. Most of the bad karma stems from the high price (People generally like PS3 the machine as a whole if priced lower).

 

[Carl B]

Nero, what numbers are being 'thrown around'?

The only numbers I even see in this thread at all are the ones Chef-O asked me to provide.

 

[scooby_dooby]

In GDC, they really surprised me with their vision and capability. There are (still) positive and exciting things to look forward to.

The way Sony mis-managed their launch is almost comical compared to their GDC performance (These guys are nuts -- not incompetent or arrogant -- but clearly trying to do something unique).

I think we can leave it at 'vision' for now, and we'll see about their 'capability' when they actually deliver something.

 

[NERO]

Nero, what numbers are being 'thrown around'?

The only numbers I even see in this thread at all are the ones Chef-O asked me to provide.

The numbers (units solf/month) that you and other folk are forecasting for this year. I know not to take them seriously for we are all guessing but I thought maybe it would be handy to look at the past console generation (especially early on) to see what happened at this point. Yes the market is different this time around but it won't hurt to look at past numbers.

 

[TheChefO]

Not "just brand loyalty"... but bad press, broken promises, high price point (no 20Gb PS3 inventory in Feb), short month, little software, zero vision/direction (at that time), etc. In short, you can still attribute the low sales to some tangible and believable reasons.

In GDC, they really surprised me with their vision and capability. There are (still) positive and exciting things to look forward to.

The way Sony mis-managed their launch is almost comical compared to their GDC performance (These guys are nuts -- not incompetent or arrogant -- but clearly trying to do something unique).

All I'm saying is... too early to tell. Most of the bad karma stems from the high price (People generally like PS3 the machine as a whole if priced lower).

Predictions were based on:
What is the ps brand worth ($) to how many people?
How many good AAA games can they get out in x time?
What does the competitive landscape look like?

Personal bias aside, (good luck, I know) this painted a very questionable situation for Sony that many shrugged off based on brand loyalty alone. "Not I", said the chef, as he was smacked around the halls of b3d like a red-headed step child. (fos)

Patsu, I'm not sure what you're trying to say here as I think we're on the same page regarding these issues that plagued ps3. My point was these things were tossed to the side with the thought that ps3 would sail through to first place based on the name/brand alone.

 

[TheChefO]

The numbers (units solf/month) that you and other folk are forecasting for this year. I know not to take them seriously for we are all guessing but I thought maybe it would be handy to look at the past console generation (especially early on) to see what happened at this point. Yes the market is different this time around but it won't hurt to look at past numbers.

Nero, You might want to run some searches here as a lot of leg work was done on this site in researching the past gen. Should help you save some time.

 

[patsu]

I think we can leave it at 'vision' for now, and we'll see about their 'capability' when they actually deliver something.

Ah.. but that's because, looking at Connect, I had an even lower expectation than you before GDC. I was rather adament that they partner with someone to deliver a reasonable online experience.

They proved to me that they are capable of running the show themselves. These are the more subtle user experiences and online dynamics issues that are non-technical but will drive the design (e.g., If they clone Xbox Live "as is", they will be in trouble. If not, in what form should Playstation Network take ?).

The online gaming platform issues on Playstation Network is mostly technical and operational. They are already working with 3rd parties to come up with something. Might not be as matured and polished as Xbox Live, but I don't foresee a huge issue there. They will have to go through some growing pains there nonetheless.

Patsu, I'm not sure what you're trying to say here as I think we're on the same page regarding these issues that plagued ps3. My point was these things were tossed to the side with the thought that ps3 would sail through to first place based on the name/brand alone.

No... they are not tossed out. They contributed to the low sales. If they can't fix those, then it will continue to haunt them. But you can see Sony working to fix them now (compared to months ago where there's complete silence and void). It's like these people just came back from a long vacation. I have to see their follow-up to know what they are up to, and whether they are up to it.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Lol, someone wrote a song about the PS3's current plight. Half of me can't believe I'm actually listening to this...the other half thinks it's pretty catchy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R98qC0fd_1w

 

[TheChefO]

No... they are not tossed out. They contributed to the low sales. If they can't fix those, then it will continue to haunt them. But you can see Sony working to fix them now (compared to months ago where there's complete silence and void). It's like these people just came back from a long vacation. I have to see their follow-up to know what they are up to, and whether they are up to it.

A misunderstanding:

I meant "tossed out" by analysts, forum posters, etc.

@scoob, blocked

 

[patsu]

A misunderstanding:

I meant "tossed out" by analysts, forum posters, etc.

@scoob, blocked

*Shudders* whatever... People will have humbling moments when reality speaks.

Based on the Wired interview, it seems that we have plenty of opportunities to observe Sony in the new FY:
* March -- PS3 launch in Europe + Firmware 1.6 update
* April -- Playstation Home beta (15,000). EyeToy HD launch (?)
* May -- Gamers Day (LittleBigPlanet to show off even more building/customization options. I hope they show some online and community aspects though. Phil talked a little about their community play in the Wired interview)
* June (?)
* July -- E3
* August -- Home beta (50,000)
* October -- Home GA

Somebody else here have the game releases.