NPD February 2007

[Tap In]

If you believe that if PS2 was removed from the market tomorrow that doing so would not cause an increase in PS3 sales, then you are welcome to that belief. I disagree (not 1-1 tho, of course).

I agree. (... not a notable increase in sales of PS3 however, more likely an increase in Wii sales)

I think MS really forced Sony's hand releasing in '05. Sony could have ridden the PS2 into this year and had the PS3 poised for WW release this month in a much better position from a cost/price/games/services/features perspective.

 

[scooby_dooby]

There was simply too little to base anything on before, and frankly the debates from last year on predicted PS3 sales were more a reflection of peoples egos and product loyalty than they were really anything else. And that of course is always going to produce results that don't sync w/reality.

Well I do think alot of it was based on the tremendous success of PS2, and to a lesser extent PS1.

One things for sure, hopefully after this, the entire 'inflation' argument can die never to be seen again. $300 remains the ideal pricepoint for a console at launch, $400 is too high, and $600 is WAAAAAY too high.

This market is way more price sensitve than people give it credit for:
Wii - lower(ish) launch price - huge sales
360 - high launch price - solid sales
PS3 - super high price - horrible sales

 

[mrcorbo]

Um, the PS2 is definately not in competition with the PS3. Even tho it still sells, its a totally different market segment.

It would be like saying the Mercedes C-class is in competition with the Maybach.

Not if you define competition as making someone buy a PS2 over a PS3. But how about the continued strength of the PS2 platform allowing those who already own a PS2 to sit on their existing purchase for the time being, awaiting a price cut or a killer app, instead of buying a PS3 (or a 360) now? In those terms the PS2 is definately strong competition.

 

[Natoma]

That's only partially true. Yes, marketing and hype goes a long way in the entertainment industry, but the video game industry is also a tech industry. There's no "upgrade path" so to speak with the Wii, which means it only it can only go down from here. It also hasn't conquered it's content problems: It's still dominated by Nintendo first party and weak third party.

One thing to note is the success of the PS2 right now, which means last gen is still going strong and the Wii is probably part of that. It's ridiculous to think that it's success could last though.

You were part of the crowd who said the Wii would fall flat on its face weren't you.

 

[Geo]

Really?? You think the impact would be notable?

Can you tell I disagree?

From which end? If you're selling 127k, then another 13k is "notable" isn't it? Even if it's a drop in the bucket to what you gave up by pulling PS2 (understand, I wasn't advocating them pulling PS2 off the market). The PS2 library is very strong, and if only PS3 could play those games when you were in the market for a new console, they'd sell more of them. Simple as that. You don't get that effect with "Maybach vs Mercedes C" or whatever. How many late PS2 games could have been repositioned with a minor tweak to be PS3-only, if that's what they wanted to do?

 

[Laa-Yosh]

It would be like saying the Mercedes C-class is in competition with the Maybach.

Heh, on another forum I've used the Mini and the BMW M5

 

[Tap In]

If you're selling 127k, then another 13k is "notable" isn't it?

good point

 

[nonamer]

Heh, on another forum I've used the Mini and the BMW M5

There's some sort of Godwin's Law for car analogies.

 

[NERO]

Wow. The stories about consumers avoiding the PS3 (stocked shelves...etc) are still true. Supply has increased significantly yet gamers don't want to buy the PS3 at the speed that Sony hoped. All price and product differentiation. I'm sure that many have already commented on the obvious, that the 360 and PS3 are currently viewed as the same by consumers and the 1-200USD price difference is too much. Without being too gloomy, this doesn't look good for Sony (the CAD numbers are ghastly), but man am I impressed by Nintendo. The DS and Wii are taking names and there is reason for their numbers to accelerate this year in the form of Mario, SSB, DQ9, Wind Waker 2. I'm sure things will be better for all console makers by the end of the year but Sony's dominance might be over (we aint seeing 70% share ever again).

P.S. Where in the hell are folks getting these forecast numbers from? Just guessing?

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Well... I wouldn't venture on this lightly. I would be willing to make isolated guesses, but they would be release schedule dependent, something we unfortunately don't really have. But I say the month and/or month after FFXIII launches, God of War 3, Killzone maybe if it's good, any sort of short-term "monster" event like one of those.

The problem here is that such big games won't be released for a small user base because they won't be able to break even. FFXIII will probably need about 2 million copies just for that!
So I'd say that especially for third party exclusives it's reasonable to assume that they'll be delayed until 2008, to capitalize on the holiday season hw sales. 1st/2nd party stuff like Heavenly Sword, Killzone, and so on, they might be released sooner than that, though, but I think Sony's going to probe the water before doing so.

 

[Carl B]

One things for sure, hopefully after this, the entire 'inflation' argument can die never to be seen again. $300 remains the ideal pricepoint for a console at launch, $400 is too high, and $600 is WAAAAAY too high.

This market is way more price sensitve than people give it credit for:
Wii - lower(ish) launch price - huge sales
360 - high launch price - solid sales
PS3 - super high price - horrible sales

Well, I don't know. I mean if you add the qualifier "so far" to those indicators, then yes I agree with you. But I do think that the appetite for a more expensive console is appreciably robust. Afterall, last $600 console I'm aware of was NeoGeo, and I *know* PS3 is doing better than that.

It's three months into sales for Wii and Sony as far as NPD goes, so we'll just have to give it some time until we know whether "huge" and "horrible" will apply as much six months from now as they do today, price irrespective.

360 I'm happy to grant "solid" sales to, as its been out long enough to earn that designation.

 

[mrcorbo]

360 had 1 competitor in the timeframe. PS3 has 3 (since PS2 clearly still has strong appeal).

I strongly disagree with this assessment. The 360 was in competition with the PS3 from the moment it was announced. And keep in mind it wasn't until March of '06 that it was officially revealed that the PS3 wasn't coming in Spring '06 (though it was pretty much a formality at that point to make the announcement) and it wasn't until May of '06 that the $599 price point was revealed.

TBH, I think supply problems would have prevented the 360 from doing signifigantly better even if these facts were known on its launch day, but don't think that in November '05 the prospect of what was thought to be a similarly-priced PS3 launching 4-6 months away wasn't competition.

 

[nonamer]

I think this statement spells out the differences between your view and Nintendo's.

(1) They want to bring in new gamers who are not tech savvy (but there are more of them in this world). These people are looking for fun, not technology. The downside is when they do that, they will lose some existing (hardcore) gamers perhaps like yourself... because they can't serve you as well now (The focus is diluted, especially at the beginning).

(2) Wii provides real value (not only hype) to these people. They can get into video games now with the added benefits of having quick and simple fun, exercising, learning about technology, etc. ... In a sense, they only see technology as a means to their ends.

However these values may be useless to you because you are already a gamer, or/and you probably don't need/appreciate these "secondary effects".

Let's say that is true: How long will they be satisfied with just Wii sports? I think anyone who becomes a gamer eventual must want better games or get bored.

I'm also not entirely convinced that it is the "non-gamers" that are wanting it. I can't imagine them waiting in line or getting up early. Perhaps it is due to scalpers.

Now this may be true... but the emphasis may be on now. Things may change if it makes economical sense for 3rd party to do so.

I'm not trying to change your own perception of Wii (because I can't). I'm just trying to remind you that other people can have different needs and see things differently from us. I'm more fitting to the old gamer demography (even though I'm more of a light/casual kind)... but I have a wife and a kid that I hope to bring gaming to them someday. They certainly don't give a damn about technology but my wife has a little back problem, and the kid is bored and can't handle a controller yet

Anyway I'm done with it. Still can't find a Wii yet.

Shortages hurt consumer interest in most cases. I wonder what demand could have been like if they shipped enough.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Well, I don't know. I mean if you add the qualifier "so far" to those indicators, then yes I agree with you. But I do think that the appetite for a more expensive console is appreciably robust. Afterall, last $600 console I'm aware of was NeoGeo, and I *know* PS3 is doing better than that.

It's three months into sales for Wii and Sony as far as NPD goes, so we'll just have to give it some time until we know whether "huge" and "horrible" will apply as much six months from now as they do today, price irrespective.

360 I'm happy to grant "solid" sales to, as its been out long enough to earn that designation.

Ya we'll see, imo, the PS3 sales will only really begin to pickup after the console recieves it's first pricedrop.

I did mean 'so far' so that qualifier is good with me

 

[Carl B]

The problem here is that such big games won't be released for a small user base because they won't be able to break even. FFXIII will probably need about 2 million copies just for that!
So I'd say that especially for third party exclusives it's reasonable to assume that they'll be delayed until 2008, to capitalize on the holiday season hw sales. 1st/2nd party stuff like Heavenly Sword, Killzone, and so on, they might be released sooner than that, though, but I think Sony's going to probe the water before doing so.

Laa-Yosh I agree with you on this, and for the record all of the titles I expect to provide that sort of spiked boost are in 2008 and beyond. If I didn't make that clear in my response to Chef, I apologize. In 2007 I don't see PS3 outselling 360 for even a single month. Not that I think it's not possible, but if I had to say yes or no, I'd say no.

I think PS3 will have some critically acclaimed titles this year, but everything else equal, MS is clearly bringing out some big guns this year as well. Bigger guns I'd say - pending some wacky E3 announcement - which is why I think it's 08 or later for Sony.

 

[Geo]

I strongly disagree with this assessment. The 360 was in competition with the PS3 from the moment it was announced. And keep in mind it wasn't until March of '06 that it was officially revealed that the PS3 wasn't coming in Spring '06 (though it was pretty much a formality at that point to make the announcement) and it wasn't until May of '06 that the $599 price point was revealed.

I dunno. I take your point, but if we're talking about North America, and given Sony's prior habits, wasn't an April '06 launch expected to be Japan only?

 

[Natoma]

Let's say that is true: How long will they be satisfied with just Wii sports? I think anyone who becomes a gamer eventual must want better games or get bored.

Uhm, that would be the case for any console. You're acting as if the games that are out for the system are the only ones that will be released.

I'm also not entirely convinced that it is the "non-gamers" that are wanting it. I can't imagine them waiting in line or getting up early. Perhaps it is due to scalpers.

You should read the "Videogames aren't just for grandkids" thread. The demand for the system has definitely brought in "non-gamers" and casual gamers.

Shortages hurt consumer interest in most cases. I wonder what demand could have been like if they shipped enough.

Well they've shipped ~6 million consoles since launch, and sold every single one of them. I think that kind of availability in the first 4.5 months of a system's life is unprecedented. I wouldn't worry too much about consumer interest.

 

[TheChefO]

I don't know, people guess stuff all the time and are right, wrong, whatever... I don't think the accuracy of the guess is as important as the means of reaching it.

The two go hand in hand though don't they? I can't speak for others but my predictions were based on many factors which I had limited access to. But based on what I did know and could find, I'd say my predictions were pretty good.

/self promotion

Well... I wouldn't venture on this lightly. I would be willing to make isolated guesses, but they would be release schedule dependent, something we unfortunately don't really have. But I say the month and/or month after FFXIII launches, God of War 3, Killzone maybe if it's good, any sort of short-term "monster" event like one of those.

In the longrun it'll just depend on the total tapestry of offerings one console presents vs the other, and at what price consimers feel its worth it. A year from now I think we'll have a better sense on that front.

Agreed, individual events are next to impossible to pintpoint a time to, but the result of the event should be a bit easier. I'd say when ps3 drops to below $300, they will have a shot to outsell the xb360 (regardless what the 360 is selling for at the time). Prior to this event though, I predict a further unit spread in the U.S.

Other regions ... well I'm waiting on EU data (Japan is Nintendo land - confirmed)

 

[Laa-Yosh]

I think PS3 will have some critically acclaimed titles this year, but everything else equal, MS is clearly bringing out some big guns this year as well. Bigger guns I'd say - pending some wacky E3 announcement - which is why I think it's 08 or later for Sony.

Yeah, practically one big gun per month, sometimes even more, from May through the rest of the year. And already have a few announced games for 2008, and then there are some other games without any release date at all.
For example people seem to forget about Wolfenstein and the next id game - I think they'll be quite big too.

 

[TheChefO]

I strongly disagree with this assessment. The 360 was in competition with the PS3 from the moment it was announced. And keep in mind it wasn't until March of '06 that it was officially revealed that the PS3 wasn't coming in Spring '06 (though it was pretty much a formality at that point to make the announcement) and it wasn't until May of '06 that the $599 price point was revealed.

TBH, I think supply problems would have prevented the 360 from doing signifigantly better even if these facts were known on its launch day, but don't think that in November '05 the prospect of what was thought to be a similarly-priced PS3 launching 4-6 months away wasn't competition.

Good point!

Though anyone who was really paying attention knew the ps3 wasn't anywhere near release, I still think the mindshare was actually worse than having the ps3 system on the shelf next to the xb360. MS were battling a figurative-legendary-system following the best selling console in history. The combination of the 2x specs thrown up at e3 along with the "vids" only fueled that flame. MS were probably happy to see the system hit retail so they could go toe to toe and not have to battle with rediculous "xbox 1.5" comments all day long. (or blackbelt digs, or "no competition" digs or any of the other nonsense that was spewed prior to ps3 launch)