NPD February 2007
- Thread starter Rangers
- Start date
360 had 1 competitor in the timeframe. PS3 has 3 (since PS2 clearly still has strong appeal).
That's only partially true. Yes, marketing and hype goes a long way in the entertainment industry, but the video game industry is also a tech industry. There's no "upgrade path" so to speak with the Wii, which means it only it can only go down from here. It also hasn't conquered it's content problems: It's still dominated by Nintendo first party and weak third party.
One thing to note is the success of the PS2 right now, which means last gen is still going strong and the Wii is probably part of that. It's ridiculous to think that it's success could last though.
Did I lowball it though? I mean - these are honest guesses; I'm not setting up a situation where I think Sony will exceed these numbers, believe me. I think it's going to be a legitimately slow-ish year for them. Anyway actually some of the places you put 250k I might have put 225k, and I wasn't saying November would be 'a lot,' just 'the most,' but... so let's just say that for the year, I put it at 3-3.25 million in the US.
I think globally things won't be terrible for PS3 when everything is said and done in 2007, but in the US there will be a lot of unit distance to make up vs its competitors.
Wow ... and I got blasted back in the day for saying a $600 console might have problems selling.
Nonamer, I see your concern and share it somewhat for Wii's longterm prosparity. However I can see many scenarios where Wii can overcome its tech limitations in the long run and continue to sell well despite them.
true, Wii is stronger than most predicted and would have wiped the floor with 360 last year. but still, 360 was being laughed at for those numbers, which in retrospect at $399 were pretty good (especially considering that you could not find one until April). Of course, that's why MS released when they did..... for those advantages. :smile:
According to SonyCowboy on GAF (the NPD guy) March numbers are trending along the same as Feb for PS3.
Wow ... and I got blasted back in the day for saying a $600 console might have problems selling.
I admit, you were right on a $600 console not selling well and most of us were wrong. I'm not going to admit my Wii position though. Still, Sony can the cut price sooner or later.
Not with little content and cheaper Xbox 360s or PS3s. It's utterly impossible in my mind, and I have much reason to believe so.
You Xbox fanbois always poor-mouthing PS3!
No, really, it's going to be better than that in the 2nd half, I think, as the library (games and other stuff) continues to build. Those Sony loyalists who are holding back for the moment are still out there. They haven't been kidnapped.Well in the current market I don't think the numbers are too far off and if I had to guess now, I'd probably come up with a similar figure. It is a striking contrast to what many were predicting a few months ago.
So if PS3 continues to sell less than xb360 in this region this year, when do you feel it will turn the corner and sell more (per month) in the U.S.?
C'mon Tap In don't jinx me like that.
(let's go 200k!)
no worries, he (in my observation) likes to under-predict a bit. I think you're pretty right on with your estimations myself (in light of these new numbers) although, strong PS3 software releases or a 360 price drop (as well as Halo month) could impact any of those months.
175k to 275k would probably be a pretty good guess as an average, not counting the Holidays.
I agree, that traditional gamer would much rather pickup a $200 xbcore + gta4 than a GC+ with wiisports. HOWEVER, having said that, I think Nintendo is not going after the traditional gamer market and so a direct comparison is invalid.
In my case, I've said I admire the thing and thing it's interesting bla bla bla over the past year. I also said I'll get it when it's cheaper... Well, I am curently seeking a Wii for one thing right now: excercise. Odd as that is and anecdotal as that is, fact remains the little box is different things for different people.
It is not a meat and potatoes traditional game box. I agree with you there. That does not mean the console cannot have longterm success.
(Thanks for owning up to the mispredict on ps3 though ... Now some of you other haters need to come clean ... Don't make me start a poll!!!) jk
If you believe that if PS2 was removed from the market tomorrow that doing so would not cause an increase in PS3 sales, then you are welcome to that belief. I disagree (not 1-1 tho, of course).
scooby_dooby
Legend
I think it would cause a tiny, negligible bump in sales.
I mean, you could literally buy FOUR ps2's for the price of one PS3, these are not selling to the same set of consumers.
I think it's a safe bet that almost everyone who is spending $400+ on a game console (alot of spinach) already owns a previous generation console.
I think this statement spells out the differences between your view and Nintendo's.
(1) They want to bring in new gamers who are not tech savvy (but there are more of them in this world). These people are looking for fun, not technology. The downside is when they do that, they will lose some existing (hardcore) gamers perhaps like yourself... because they can't serve you as well now (The focus is diluted, especially at the beginning).
(2) Wii provides real value (not only hype) to these people. They can get into video games now with the added benefits of having quick and simple fun, exercising, learning about technology, etc. ... In a sense, they only see technology as a means to their ends.
However these values may be useless to you because you are already a gamer, or/and you probably don't need/appreciate these "secondary effects".
Now this may be true... but the emphasis may be on now. Things may change if it makes economical sense for 3rd party to do so.
I'm not trying to change your own perception of Wii (because I can't). I'm just trying to remind you that other people can have different needs and see things differently from us. I'm more fitting to the old gamer demography (even though I'm more of a light/casual kind)... but I have a wife and a kid that I hope to bring gaming to them someday. They certainly don't give a damn about technology but my wife has a little back problem, and the kid is bored and can't handle a controller yet
Anyway I'm done with it. Still can't find a Wii yet.
Strinking indeed, but healthy as well. If anyone was *still* predicting those sorts of sales, then it'd be time for a trip to the asylum!
I don't know, people guess stuff all the time and are right, wrong, whatever... I don't think the accuracy of the guess is as important as the means of reaching it. Human decision making, like an algorithm running on a processor, benefits from deliberate steps and being well thought out.
There was simply too little to base anything on before, and frankly the debates from last year on predicted PS3 sales were more a reflection of peoples egos and product loyalty than they were really anything else. And that of course is always going to produce results that don't sync w/reality.
Well... I wouldn't venture on this lightly. I would be willing to make isolated guesses, but they would be release schedule dependent, something we unfortunately don't really have. But I say the month and/or month after FFXIII launches, God of War 3, Killzone maybe if it's good, any sort of short-term "monster" event like one of those.
In the longrun it'll just depend on the total tapestry of offerings one console presents vs the other, and at what price consimers feel its worth it. A year from now I think we'll have a better sense on that front.
