thatdude90210
Regular
It worked. The casuals got all hyped up about motion controllers so they went out and bought a Wii.
NPD December 2010
- Thread starter RobertR1
- Start date
I believe this is the same Patcher that predicted the XBox 360 outsold the PS3 2 to 1 in December.
The software issue has been discussed here before. There is far more PS3 Move software available than Kinect so most Kinect software purchases are going to be lumped into far fewer games. We also know that a ton of Move titles are on PSN or are updates to current games available on PSN and software downloads aren't counted.
It's a shame that even on these boards people would rather quote Patcher when he supports their "side" rather than actually discuss what the numbers mean. If Patcher isn't subscribing to the peripheral data, and PSN already has a large amount of PSN software with undocumented sales/use, then there's a gigantic void in his analysis that anyone looking at this rationally can see. He's not counting people that already own a PS3 but bought the Move to play games they already own.
Is it wise for Sony to release free Move software so there's no BIG hit in the top ten? Is it wise that they may be selling a larger percentage of peripherals to existing customers instead of bundles to new customers? These are interesting questions. What isn't interesting is what Patcher speculates, especially because he's usually wrong. What isn't interesting is having to pretend that the number of Move peripherals sold is insignificant.
It's simply an unknown and it's unfortunate the console war gets in the way around here.
Oh god, please let this be a Steel Battalion game!
Given the fact that console owners only have a finite amount that they will be willing/able to spend on games, I don't think it takes a console-warrior mentality to see that selling significantly higher proportion of console bundles is important and worth pointing out.
Very true, didn't even consider all of that.
Didn't realize how many times I used market in that quote, posting while working FTL
While I agree, I'm also hesitant to be so hopeful for ground breaking games being developed for Kinect. Wii has shown that good sales does not translate into big budget 3rd party support (or success).
I too would like to see games created outside of the box formed from years of developing games with a standard controller in mind. However again I question if publishers will be willing to make such investments this late in the gen where new ideas and IP usually gather bigger attention during the beginning of a new generation of consoles. Then again, I guess the Kinect/slim release can be seen as a re-launch of sorts for the 360.
We shall see.
I honestly think it would be foolish not to have it standard. I don't see the shift between this gen to the next turning out to be as expensive as the xbox to the 360. This can be especially true when you consider how long this generation may last. The longer this gen lasts, the cheaper the jump could be next gen. With this in mind, I hope they use the (even slight) breathing room in cost and just make Kinect standard.
Edit:
I think another equally interesting dilemma for both MS and Ninty is to see what type of "hook" they can develop for the next gen to attract the masses or "casual" market. The Wii, and now Move, have shown that the same concept with prettier graphics is not enough to win over the mindshare of these types of gamers. Core gamers and early adopters will be there day one for sure, but what will they introduce next gen to make these people let go of the Wii/Kinect/Move they may already own this gen.
It's late and hard for me to put my thoughts into words, but I think you get the idea.
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Why the hell isn't Wedbush subscribing to peripheral data this year, when peripherals are getting such a huge focus by business?
Additionally, math is hard? Either the 360 sold 1:2 (930k) and the PS3 1:5 (240k) bundles, or the 360 sold (1:2) 930k and the PS3 1/5 of that (186k) or the 360 sold 1.21M (5x PS3) and the PS3 (1:5).
I realize he says 'about' half, but it seems like a big difference between saying 1.21 million kinect bundles sold and 930k (especially since the latter would mean Kinect sold as many units as PS3s were sold total[1]). Seriously, industrygamer could have gone back to him and asked him to clarify the numbers, couldn't they?
[1] I think we would have heard something if that had been the case. 1:2 and 1:5 is probably correct.
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DuckThor Evil
Legend
Am I the only one that is worried for Sony in the US market?
1) PS3 gets outsold easily for both November and December by both Wii and the 360 (this is the time of the year where it really matters).
2) PS3 Move failing to get any kind of market share and only a little bit of the existing hardcore market (not most or not all, not even half of the hardcore adopting move here). This is a very bad sign.
Move software sales being so poor that they are almost useless to sell.
So, Wii ports are unlikely to sell to this crowd so that is out as well.
3) 3D-TV which the PS3 is all about is not selling at all and is a complete bust and will be for a long, long time and the PS3 is doing nothing here and nobody cares about this other than a few nerds on Beyond3D and maybe GAF.
4) PSP2 is launching at a time in which game only devices (beyond the DS) are not selling well and Sony already failed here before and again nobody but some people here and GAF really care. Piracy in the states has really killed it badly and it takes Sony's eyes off focusing on the PS3 exclusively. You can't just port from the PS2 here anymore. So now you have to get developers on board for this and piracy has already destroyed the PSP and is on the PS3. Seems like they are taking their eyes of the ball and have too many things to focus on (PS3 piracy, PSP2, PSMove, PS3), that is a lot.
5) PS3 piracy and losing control over the platform and most games are not that big even if they are on blu-ray. How is Sony going to get third parties to continue to stick with them here? The more noise Sony makes about this, the more they advertise piracy.
6) Blu-ray players are dropping in price and rising in features so there isn't that need anymore to buy a PS3 as their once was. By the end of 2011 the prices will be really cheap for a player for your HDTV and it will be state of the art features for a very low price that even the PS3 can't match.
7) At least in the USA, the PlayStation brand does not mean what it used to and it is becoming more tarnished as time goes by. Consumers are simply not buying the PlayStation products like they used to and this trend seems to be continuing. Even GT5 did not sell like previous copies did in the USA and Japan and that to me is a sign of a lack of confidence in Sony and the brand. How long until this starts spreading to other countries outside the USA.
1) PS3 gets outsold easily for both November and December by both Wii and the 360 (this is the time of the year where it really matters).
2) PS3 Move failing to get any kind of market share and only a little bit of the existing hardcore market (not most or not all, not even half of the hardcore adopting move here). This is a very bad sign.
Move software sales being so poor that they are almost useless to sell.
So, Wii ports are unlikely to sell to this crowd so that is out as well.
3) 3D-TV which the PS3 is all about is not selling at all and is a complete bust and will be for a long, long time and the PS3 is doing nothing here and nobody cares about this other than a few nerds on Beyond3D and maybe GAF.
4) PSP2 is launching at a time in which game only devices (beyond the DS) are not selling well and Sony already failed here before and again nobody but some people here and GAF really care. Piracy in the states has really killed it badly and it takes Sony's eyes off focusing on the PS3 exclusively. You can't just port from the PS2 here anymore. So now you have to get developers on board for this and piracy has already destroyed the PSP and is on the PS3. Seems like they are taking their eyes of the ball and have too many things to focus on (PS3 piracy, PSP2, PSMove, PS3), that is a lot.
5) PS3 piracy and losing control over the platform and most games are not that big even if they are on blu-ray. How is Sony going to get third parties to continue to stick with them here? The more noise Sony makes about this, the more they advertise piracy.
6) Blu-ray players are dropping in price and rising in features so there isn't that need anymore to buy a PS3 as their once was. By the end of 2011 the prices will be really cheap for a player for your HDTV and it will be state of the art features for a very low price that even the PS3 can't match.
7) At least in the USA, the PlayStation brand does not mean what it used to and it is becoming more tarnished as time goes by. Consumers are simply not buying the PlayStation products like they used to and this trend seems to be continuing. Even GT5 did not sell like previous copies did in the USA and Japan and that to me is a sign of a lack of confidence in Sony and the brand. How long until this starts spreading to other countries outside the USA.
Yeah, they seem to be in a downturn, after the Slim's positive effect - seems like they're going through cycles in this generation. They do have a lot of PS3 exclusive titles for 2011 and while they probably won't do wonders, it might still be enough to help things turn for the better. And Europe is still going strong for them, enough to compensate for their falling behind in the US.
Sony long-term, or PS3? The next couple of years I think we'll see PS3 bringing up the rear still. I can't see anything changing that. Move could potentially appeal to a wider audience, but Sony have no idea how to push it, just as they didn't EyeToy. I think PS3 will just trot along and Sony should look at how to turn things around. If they can create a proper unfired Sony experience across devices, and utilise their talent and IP to best effect, they can gain the ascendency once again. But I do doubt their success in that, because the past decade or so I've seen more screw-ups and dropped balls from Sony than cunningly targeted and perfectly executed plans. Old Sony, the electronics company, new what it was doing, but Sony hasn't yet found it's feet in the digital media age, and their attempts have been mixed even if their ideas are on the money.
COD 8 and BF 3 with Move support and we'll get millions of sales. BTW I dont think Sony's tactic is to push Move like Kinect - but rather make it a second controller next to sixaxis/dualshock on the platform. They dont need big holiday sales, but constantly growing userbase.
I'm actually interested how Kinect will be selling in two months from now.
@Docwiz
You're so wrong about it. 3D is big deal and Sony is really smart for pushing it hard.
What? PSP is great success for Sony as a hardware. Anyone who thought that Sony would beat almost 20 years of handheld expierienced Nintendo, in their first generation, was a lunatic. They sold more that 60m units wordwide!
Really? Many games sell better on PS3 than on Xbox 360 [especially EA's].
They dont have to anymore. PS3 was selling as a bluray player for some because there werent many games, but now its totally gaming console, not a cheap bluray player.
You're wrong. GT 5 sold only slightly worse [10%] than GT 4 in first two months in lower userbase with bigger competition [NFS, AC, BO] and 3 consoles on market not two. And Racing games are on decline in US for some years now. GT series always were a slow burners - GT 4 sold 1.1m in first to months in US and end up selling 3m in NA.
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I thought everyone has learned the PS2's lesson by now - no console's user base is completely homogeneous. Just as the X360 has some casual owners, so does the Wii have core users.
Also, why can't at least some core users have some Kinect fun?
To be honest, I think the whole core vs casual divide is nonsense. I'd be willing to guess there are a ton of so-called core gamers with kinect, for themselves. I can see it on my friends list. I have some people with families and girlfriends that bought it on my list, but I would almost guarantee that 90% of them would have bought it anyway. Kinect is fun, if you buy the right games. It appeals to pretty much everybody, except for people who absolutely abhor standing and moving their limbs. You know, those people who will wait for the elevator to go up one floor because they hate the idea of taking the stairs.
What the "warrior" mentality fails to see is that with all the evidence we have, it's still possible that Move outsold Kinect.
At what ratio is the 'hardcore' buying into Kinect? All I see is roughly half of console sales were Kinect bundles. Out of that ~930k, how many are 'hardcore'? How many standalone Kinects were sold? That's why the peripheral data is important. Was it over a million this month? The cynic in me says that Greenberg would have piped up about that (see how he piped up about Dance Central and Kinect Sports 1M NPD LTD), but it's possible.
But beyond that, isn't 'half of the hardcore' kind of a lofty goal? The kinect isn't even near reaching that. Hell, it's not clear reaching 'half the hardcore' is in any of these companies' plans. The Kinect seems to be doing well with people buying new 360s, and those people are more likely to be the new demographic MS is going after.
Not saying I necessarily agree with his points, but I don't understand why you are trying to frame an argument around Kinect's success/failure to sell to the hardcore. You're basically saying Move shouldn't be expected to do better at something it is trying to do than Kinect is doing when it's not trying.
Before I respond, and for the sake of clarity:
1st - This is an NPD thread, so you're considering US only.
2nd - For a proper comparison you should be talking about individual installations, whether they contain one controller or multiples. It doesn't much matter when you are comparing future revenue potential whether Sony sells 4 Move controllers to one household versus 1 or 2.
Taking those points into consideration, you believe that there is a possibility that there are more Move installations out there than Kinect installations?
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You think COD8 will sell more with move support? I'm skeptical.
Standalone sales doesn't tell you anything about who bought them. Unless you are somehow under the deluded notion that every 360 owner up till the release of the kinect was a hardcore gamer. More than 15% of X360 owners own a kinect in the first 60 days of the product being available. In case you're wondering, that's more than the number of X360 owners that bought COD Black OPs, and roughly equal to as many that bought halo3 (albeit kinect has gotten there faster).
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I'm pretty sure Move would sell more with COD 8 support, especially if it'll enhance accuracy.
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