NPD December 2010

[kagemaru]

I don't think there will be price increases, since next gen will be pretty much the same as this gen but at 1080p 60fps, but more stuff like online codes will appear.

Targeting 30fps to push more graphical jazz on the screen has been pretty much the standard for the last three generations, you really think that will change next gen?

Extra effects and features will take more manpower in many areas, the cost has a very good chance of going up IMO.

 

[eastmen]

A lot of games have more than 4gigs of textures already though.

Its alot diffrent having to fill 512 megs of ram than 4 gigs of ram , costs will go up for making games in the next generation just like it did last generation and the generation before that.

Couple that with the week usd and I think we will be lucky to get by with a $70 pricep oint

 

[Squilliam]

Targeting 30fps to push more graphical jazz on the screen has been pretty much the standard for the last three generations, you really think that will change next gen?

Extra effects and features will take more manpower in many areas, the cost has a very good chance of going up IMO.

Targeting 60FPS could cost less money and therefore make the trade-off a better one from a business sense. It doesn't really cost any more money to target 60FPS for smoother gameplay, better motion control experiences but it does cost more to make the assets to justify running at 30FPS.

 

[corduroygt]

PC versions of some console games are already next-gen, so that's why I don't see game prices going up. Those effects and textures are already there, they are just beyond the power of current hardware.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The prices went up this gen for the usa at least.

with the xbox , ps2 and gamecube prices were $50 for new releases , for the xbox 360 and ps3 they were $60 .

I think that's true for RRP, but what I can actually buy a game for hasn't gone up by much. In that respect, the idea that game prices will ahve to shoot up to offset increase production costs, things didn't go as badly as they could have for consumers, and I don't think next gen will see a significant increase in costs overall. Some titles will, some titles will aim more budget. But Apps have put a real price pressure on digital entertainment, and I don't think $70 game discs will do particularly well unless you have a strong enough IP. For smaller titles, budgets can be set and they can use a portion of system resources, not the whole lot, to make a game to a price that fits the $60 or whatever average selling price the market has currently settled on. It's be the likes of Halo and GT that could push a higher price premium to offset the costs of making the most of the hardware.

 

[dobwal]

I think that's true for RRP, but what I can actually buy a game for hasn't gone up by much. In that respect, the idea that game prices will ahve to shoot up to offset increase production costs, things didn't go as badly as they could have for consumers, and I don't think next gen will see a significant increase in costs overall. Some titles will, some titles will aim more budget. But Apps have put a real price pressure on digital entertainment, and I don't think $70 game discs will do particularly well unless you have a strong enough IP. For smaller titles, budgets can be set and they can use a portion of system resources, not the whole lot, to make a game to a price that fits the $60 or whatever average selling price the market has currently settled on. It's be the likes of Halo and GT that could push a higher price premium to offset the costs of making the most of the hardware.

I agree.

I think the primary drivers of the $10 increase in retail games came from the extra development dollars needed to exploit the technical prowess of PS3 and 360 and the high subidization needed by the Sony and MS to put those consoles in consumers hands. Consumers responded by pouring huge amounts of money into the market. Someone mention that 2010 revenues were similar to 2007 revenues. In the US alone the game market went from 10 billion a year in game related purchases during the PS2 hayday to 17-22 billion a year during the current gen.

But you can't expect consumers to drive sales in such a manner gen in and gen out. Thats not even close to sustainable. Despite, the huge increase in consumer spending Sony, MS and most of the big developers have struggled to capitalize on such a huge increase in revenue. Everyone is blaming the recession but when hasn't there been a recession during a console gen. And how many markets do you know is able to grow revenue 40-50% over the previous gen despite the worst recession since the depression. These guys at MS, Sony, EA and others know this and why they have failed to capitalize with huge fistful of money. They have become horribly inefficient at capturing profits.

Passing off costs to increase profitability in the form of higher retail prices to consumers is bad business when there exists a huge levels of inefficieny in your business. Increasing retail prices will only excerbate those inefficiencies by driving consumers to fewer games, which means companies like EA who can't make money because it publishes too many titles that don't perform is going to find itself trimming its roster even more than it did this year.

Next gen isn't the time to increase costs to consumers but a time for MS, Sony and others to retool their businesses to maximize the profits. Most of revenue growth over the next decade won't come from full packaged retail console games but these smaller digital distributed games that sell in the single digit dollar range. Publishers need to find a way to exploit the 100s of millions of mobile smart phones, tablets and handhelds that will find their way to consumer hands over the next 5 years and stop trying to get me to plop down an extra $10 bucks each gen.

That extra $10 dollars isn't needed for the games I buy, its needed to subsidize all the games no one wants.

 

[Akumajou]

Not very usual to see a PC-game in NPD's list. I don't think NPD count's the online sales from for example Steam or Blizzard Store?

Yeah personally I find those numbers very fishy even if its warcraft, its more like giving the mgame more free extendsive advertising.

 

[zed]

Targeting 30fps to push more graphical jazz on the screen has been pretty much the standard for the last three generations, you really think that will change next gen?

2 reasons

A/ this generation will be longer than any previous gen, thus hardware will of moved on more (relatively) which leads into
B/ resolution next gen wont be higher than 1920x1080(*) (cause thats the max most tv's can do) i.e. smaller leap than ps1->ps2 (4x larger res) + ps2->ps3 (~3x larger res)

(*)a few console games even do 1920x1080 today, with hardware thats >10x faster that should be standard @60fps

 

[NavNucST3]

Matt has an article up with Top 10 NEW RELEASES per platform.

Sony is in such an interesting position with the PSP software sales by region, as far as the US goes though, if it isn't infringement then they have a serious problem here.

I haven't decided on what I think about Wii Party.

For the PS3 and 360, NBA 2k11 certainly had a major turnaround from the "game" that was 2k10 and its placement above some notable games (Gran Turismo 5 and Mass Effect 2) is interesting and EA is now going to need to do something big (I believe) to bring users back to NBA Live. EDIT: God of War III and Fable III are stronger than I would have imagined also. As always remember that placement in one chart does not mean greater sales than a lower placed number in another chart.

 

[Deepak]

No NPD figures for Jan 11?

 

[Rangers]

Feb 17. I made the same mistake.