Every single year it's like déjà vu. right? right?
Well at least now there is Kinect and PS3 piracy giving you guys fresh ammo.
NPD December 2010
- Thread starter RobertR1
- Start date
Every single year it's like déjà vu. right? right?
Well at least now there is Kinect and PS3 piracy giving you guys fresh ammo.
If you look at AlStrong post of PS3 hardware sales of 2009 and 2010 you'll see a big difference between the Jan-Aug sales. 2010 had a lot of PS3 exclusives in the first half of the year. In fact, had Sony spread out their titles more evenly and had not delay LBP2, Socom 4 and DC Universe to 2011, I would expect it to be up YoY. After all, counting both 2009 and 2010 sales, 2010 ended up only slightly behind barring the fact that it didn't get a price drop last year.
Vic was basically saying that exclusives help. It's not going to overcome America preference of the 360, but the 2009 and 2010 shows that they have an impact in regards to PS3 staying power.
Also Kinect is not simply going to make the 360 run away from the PS3. In America yes. But that hasn't transpire in other markets. After 5 years of seeing the 360 dominate America, the PS3 has continue to outship the 360 worldwide YoY. The race for 2nd is going to remain hot.
I also don't believe piracy is going to be a big deal. Jailbreak was already out. PS3 still getting strong software sales in Europe(including multiplats) and Japan and GT5 is a actually selling on par with GT4 looking at their respective sales from the time they both were released. If I can find the comparison again, I'll show it.
All this doom and gloom for Sony and how they should abandon the PS3, it's only happening in NPD threads. I don't see anybody talking about that in the Euro and Japan threads.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
The 2010 Jan-Aug boost was "only" due to lower price + Slim compared to 2009, making the overall package more appealing. Games had very little to do with that.
I am honestly not concerned about the hardcore users with Kinect. If you are worried about that you completely missed the mark. Kinect will have core games, but not at launch. Microsoft was focused on getting the Nintendo Wii market with the launch. You will see core games later on this year with Kinect. Microsoft knows that they need to core as well on Kinect, but it's not something they need out the door for launch. Core titles need to be more advanced and the SDK and drivers have to be better.
All Microsoft needs to do is drop the price of the Kinect Bundles and Kinect. $50 dollars world wide and have experiences that the Nintendo Wii cannot do and exclusive hardcore titles that you can only play with Kinect (as well as sequels to last years kinect games, dance central 2, Kinect Sports 2, and maybe Milo) and they are done. At 99 US dollars + even more compelling exclusive games and they are done. If they do this by Christmas 2011 then it will probably sell better than last year. It's all about the price of kinect + unique + quality + different types of game-play of the games and that is a winner.
Kinect will be fine, it's move I am worried about. Most of the games Sony is making for the move makes the move optional and if it's optional will many people use it beyond the early stage.
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thatdude90210
Regular
Seems to me that concentrating on hardcore gaming with either Kinect or Move is counter productive in terms of selling more consoles. It's near 5-6 years into this generation. Most of those core gamers already have the consoles. The truly hardcore likely have them both. If I were in charge of Kinect or Move, I would concentrate on the casuals, and just give the cores token support for motion gaming. And just let the traditional games keep the core gamers happy.
I would love to see a next generation connect with a camera with wide angles, HD Camera and HD/HDR 3D Camera in which there is more detail and it can capture further back with a stronger laser. Then add in Intel's own Light Peak instead of USB and you have a winner. Then all you need to do is add in 3D and physical feedback with a next generation xbox with DirectX 12 and 4 Gigs of ram and release it by Christmas of 2014 or 2015.
By 'holding on', you mean continuing to close the gap on the 360 worldwide? No, thought not. Sony needs to improve on its December showing in the US, then again it's only the second biggest market now.
People really should start looking at it globally. 2010 was the best year in Europe and in Japan for Sony.
They're actually exceeding their hardware predictions and it terms of software they are totally fine, especially in term of 1st party. Heavy Rain made 2m, MAG made 2m, GoW 3 more than 4m for sure and GT 5 sold 5.5m in 12 days [how is it disappointing? its probably more than Halo Reach did in the same period].
Its true that exclusives dont push hardware that much now, but its quite logical - its 6th year of this generation.
And about 1st party, Sony will push them hard till they'll repay development costs and they are, mostly double or even triple. Almost every Sony's exclusive exceed 2m units sold and many 3m+.
Sony is just fine and every prediction about 'reduced third party support' is just a bollocks even if we consider strong piracy.
Ps. They just dont have idea how to break Xbox brand popularity in NA, but they are quite fine.
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Precisely. It's a mix of fan delusion and entitlement to believe that these corporations aren't going for new markets over already established ones. That doesn't mean we'll be abandoned, but they can 'not abandon' us by releasing the same sort of games they always have.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
And interesting claim. I'm going to guess that since PS3 is underperforming in the US that allows another country to be a larger market. Oh wait, no, not another country, but I'm guessing another group of countries? Japan is the second largest market for PS3 on a per country basis I believe and it's just a bit over 6 million consoles sold. I'm not sure if France or Germany is next after them, but France is ~3 million lifetime consoles.
And if we're talking purely software sales, if you look at many Publishers financial statements sales of software overall (all consoles) has NA ahead of all of Europe including most of the rest of the world minus Japan in some cases. There may be one or two publishers where that isn't true, but I can't recall any off the top of my head. That lead would be even higher if the PS3 was more attractive to US consumers.
Heck, if we did it by language breakdown it shows why the US is the most highly targetted region of the world for console sales. As targeting English language versions you'd automatically have a version useable in the US, Canada, UK, Australia, and New Zealand. Which again has the PS3 at a fair bit of a disadvantage.
Regards,
SB
I mean holding on to remnants of what most assuredly started out this gen as expectations of domination 'ala PS2. Instead those hopes are dashed and replaced with the realization that they misjudged the market and the competition by a wide margin. Each attempt ("next big game, next big portal, next big peripheral etc") has come up short. So "hang on", lose as little as possible and try again next gen.
DonaldDuck
Newcomer
For me, it´s almost a PR statement speak about the mindshare of Sony brand or even console sales now comparing them with the situation during last gen. It´s five years now and the changes happen slowly. We already know that, and some of the problems that Sony had (like yen exchange rates) are not its fault... the situation and the "recovering" if the word is right has to be seen from an operational perspective, because that´s just what the corporation can make before next generation.
At the operational level I see Sony is just making good movements, but to consider this you have to reconstruct the image with the new scenario: pretty big push from MS and their on-line service, refreshing take from Nintendo and its Wii and (yes) the change in consumer tastes relating software sales.
It´s pretty obvious that Sony and MS were targeting (just before Kinect) the same buyers and precisely these buyers have decided now to transform the first person shooter into the engine driver of the "hardcore" or traditional, market. And it´s pretty clear that this is related with the starvation of PC as a viable, massive gaming platform (WoW and very few exceptions aside), migration of genres... With that in mind, it´s pretty clear that MS had a big advantage because their brand was fiercely tied with FPS, just because Halo franchise was pioneer in some aspects and on the other hand they did the right move with Gears of War just before other platforms could react.
Why I speak about that? Because the problem Sony is having in USA is more software-related than hardware-related (always before Kinect). You can see NPD numbers from some years and you found that Sony, after entering an acceptable price (300 USD), is selling more or less in pace with previous, no-Kinect XTS numbers.
360 NPD
2007 4,7M
2008 4,8M
2009 4,9M
PS3 NPD
2009 4,3M
2010 4,3M
OK, this explains why it´s possible for Sony recover the gap between XTS and PS3 WW, because it´s worth remind that last term financial results spoke of a gap of 2,9M in favour of MS console, and last quarter (with new 360 hardware and the worldwide release of Reach) the gap decreased about 500k units.
So, the analysis I believe that has to be focused in how MS has started eating the marketshare from Wii (that has dominated the casual market for some years), being Sony more or less in-line with their previous stategy and results.
That´s the reason why I think Sony isn´t really so compromised. Their previous target is still buying consoles at a rate equal to last year´s numbers, and they now are being profitable, their new control is selling well worldwide, and their game exclusive offering is strong and, more important, in line with previous strategy that, not being spectacular in results, is still solid (NPD numbers from MS during 2007-2009 period I think that are solid enough).
The question is, Kinect itself is going to "steal" core consumers from Sony? Or perhaps from Wii? Because the important thing for Sony this gen at the operational level is building roots in what they have done well (software popular and acclaimed, in general) because the WRONG (in capital letter) decision of entering market five years ago, and the strategical decision that leaded to a 600 initial price, is hurting them really hard.
From my perspective is not absurd to think that a new price (250 USD is pretty obvious) and the SW lineup for 2011 will lead to improve their current NPD numbers (4,3M), and that, not being spectacular, show some recovering and let them survive and even grow.
MS numbers are going to explode, that´s obvious, but the target Sony has chosen is still strong, so I don´t see why they have to be in panic mode and shooting at their brains now.
And that, again, is just relating NPD numbers. In UE the situation is clearly different. Not "the opposite" but the Sony brand is still strong and even Move has outsold Kinect in some countries.
At the operational level I see Sony is just making good movements, but to consider this you have to reconstruct the image with the new scenario: pretty big push from MS and their on-line service, refreshing take from Nintendo and its Wii and (yes) the change in consumer tastes relating software sales.
It´s pretty obvious that Sony and MS were targeting (just before Kinect) the same buyers and precisely these buyers have decided now to transform the first person shooter into the engine driver of the "hardcore" or traditional, market. And it´s pretty clear that this is related with the starvation of PC as a viable, massive gaming platform (WoW and very few exceptions aside), migration of genres... With that in mind, it´s pretty clear that MS had a big advantage because their brand was fiercely tied with FPS, just because Halo franchise was pioneer in some aspects and on the other hand they did the right move with Gears of War just before other platforms could react.
Why I speak about that? Because the problem Sony is having in USA is more software-related than hardware-related (always before Kinect). You can see NPD numbers from some years and you found that Sony, after entering an acceptable price (300 USD), is selling more or less in pace with previous, no-Kinect XTS numbers.
360 NPD
2007 4,7M
2008 4,8M
2009 4,9M
PS3 NPD
2009 4,3M
2010 4,3M
OK, this explains why it´s possible for Sony recover the gap between XTS and PS3 WW, because it´s worth remind that last term financial results spoke of a gap of 2,9M in favour of MS console, and last quarter (with new 360 hardware and the worldwide release of Reach) the gap decreased about 500k units.
So, the analysis I believe that has to be focused in how MS has started eating the marketshare from Wii (that has dominated the casual market for some years), being Sony more or less in-line with their previous stategy and results.
That´s the reason why I think Sony isn´t really so compromised. Their previous target is still buying consoles at a rate equal to last year´s numbers, and they now are being profitable, their new control is selling well worldwide, and their game exclusive offering is strong and, more important, in line with previous strategy that, not being spectacular in results, is still solid (NPD numbers from MS during 2007-2009 period I think that are solid enough).
The question is, Kinect itself is going to "steal" core consumers from Sony? Or perhaps from Wii? Because the important thing for Sony this gen at the operational level is building roots in what they have done well (software popular and acclaimed, in general) because the WRONG (in capital letter) decision of entering market five years ago, and the strategical decision that leaded to a 600 initial price, is hurting them really hard.
From my perspective is not absurd to think that a new price (250 USD is pretty obvious) and the SW lineup for 2011 will lead to improve their current NPD numbers (4,3M), and that, not being spectacular, show some recovering and let them survive and even grow.
MS numbers are going to explode, that´s obvious, but the target Sony has chosen is still strong, so I don´t see why they have to be in panic mode and shooting at their brains now.
And that, again, is just relating NPD numbers. In UE the situation is clearly different. Not "the opposite" but the Sony brand is still strong and even Move has outsold Kinect in some countries.
djskribbles
Legend
It will reach CoD-like PS3 numbers. Black Ops is the best selling CoD game, so GT5 outselling BO in it's lifetime seems unlikely at this point.
If you're questioning whether GT5 will make enough sales to cover development costs, didn't GT5P already cover that? GT5 took much longer than most games, but no game has had a 'prologue' sell over 5m.
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Except than in the 12 months before the release of Kinect, MS increased that number to 5.7 million. Kinect pushed that number to 6.8. The gap was widening all through 2010, it wasn't just a Kinect burst at the end.
No its not. Development cost surpasses 60m$ in December 2009, so till release it would be 70m$ max.
For a comparison GTA IV cost 100m+ and God of War 3 cost more that 45m$.
GT 5 was also developed by a quite 'small' team - only 110 people to 140 people in peaks, its not really high number when Ubisoft had 450 people working on Assassins Creed 2, Turn10 has more than 350 developers and Crytek has more than 500 developers.
We have to consider also that most of development cost or even whole [more likely] was covered by Gran Turismo 5 Prologue and GT PSP [both sold 7m units].
DonaldDuck
Newcomer
It is related with trends. All of us (and I´m the first one that do that) even being engineers, scientists, and so, are in contact with trends, and follow them. The trend now is to think that, above all, Sony is following the path to self-destruction. You can force yourself to increase the scope of your opinions, but the global (from a decade perspective) situation has changed so much that seeing some wealthy signs inside Sony bussiness is almost out of the question. And the fact is that I see some, if you drop the ball of supremacy.
The present is what the present is, and in that present Sony is advancing slowly. That´s not spectacular, nor doom. Just in between.
DonaldDuck
Newcomer
There´re some facts that have to be taken into account. PS3 is out of the 200 USD mark. That´s a difference. XTS has increased their value because of the redesing, the marketing buzz, has had a well executed software timing with Reach, and the two slim models appearing in three consecutive months... It´s pretty obvious that MS has chosen this year to make an important investment in their platform and rebranding it. Sony, at the operational level, is just in line with their sales expectations.
That´s what I speak of, they´re doing just what they wanted, and in that situation, with the past damaging them so much, they´re doing just right.
The gap, WW speaking, is reduced even during jun-september. I know that´s difficult to accept just watching NPD numbers, but the fact is that, even in USA, Sony has sold as much consoles than las year, and this time without the spike of a price reduction.
Is really Sony doomed? I can´t see that. The big error that Sony has made operationally speaking is the period during march-may with low stocks. That´s the kind of error I find extremelly important. MS is doing really worderfully, but that doesn´t implies that Sony is doing really wrong.
How many 300 SKU´s before Kinect were sold in front of PS3 numbers? I don´t know the numbers, but I bet that since the price reduction for PS3 thery may well be really close.
