NPD December 2009

I don't know if there's any research on this field but one of the most obvious looking uses to me is to add leaning into FPS games by tracking the upper body motion.
I thought the ps3 controller read tilt, thus u could stand (though I dont think youll be wanting to play FPSs for long periods standing :D) and lean your body for the same effect, hell u could do the same thing sitting down on the sofa.

I really hope that at least Reach gives it a try.
remember using natal comes at a cost ~10% CPU as well as less memory available. If they want halo reach to be anywhere near the top graphically on the xbox360, theyll need all the performance they can get

Nice idea but I dont see it flying
 
Isn't voice recognition/commands also part of the Natal package.

It would be great if Natal could recognize profiles via photo recognition.
For example it could set your controller defaults (lefty, inverted axis, etc) via your face/body data. My laptop does something similar where it logs me in automatically as I turn it on based on facial recognition.
 
Isn't voice recognition/commands also part of the Natal package.

It would be great if Natal could recognize profiles via photo recognition.
For example it could set your controller defaults (lefty, inverted axis, etc) via your face/body data. My laptop does something similar where it logs me in automatically as I turn it on based on facial recognition.

yes it was announced that Natal would recognize you and log you in to your profile, whether that is voice or facial, or both, not sure.

everything we know about Natal IGN
 
In my own experiences, I don't think leaning is necessarily a good idea. I play U2 leaning back against my comfy chair. Would hate to lean forward when I can just press L1. It needs to be something else, adding to the experience rather than replacing the experience.


I think facial recognition would work better than voice recognition (well twins problem aside). In any case, both tech won't differentiate from Arc (PS Eye already does those in existing apps/games, and can easily do it in XMB). As a pet project, we got facial recognition working on iPhone under 2 weeks (part time) using OpenCV. So it is not difficult. It's the integration with the entire environment that counts.

I think Natal will excel in its consistency (especially under poor lighting), and seamlessness across games, plus new form of games: Exercise games, educational titles, media apps and women applications. It may also support optional "sticks" for those who want accurate tracking (Game developers can offer it for specific games).

EDIT: Because Nintendo has not announced their HD plan per se. Both vendors may try to attract Wii "upgraders" as low hanging fruits.


At this stage, I am also curious about Apple's announcements next week. They may take a stab on educational titles there first. I am wondering if they will change the perception of game price for the general public (since they are not tied down by traditional console model).
 
Suggesting that the cost of the Wand is inextricably linked to having to buy 4 of them is the same sort of fallacious 'price comparison' that Sony pulled on us constantly when comparing value-adds. ('Well, clearly every gamer wants Blu-Ray and Wi-fi, so that puts the price of the 360 way above that of the PS3.')

It's difficult to have great hopes for the Wand; the advantage is that the PS3 already has a large 'predictable' audience, something that has mostly eluded the Wii. So it's possible that gimmicky solutions like RE5's pointer-based controls will see some measure of success. Of course, adoption hinges on the whole 'add-on vs. core device' debate, which doesn't really favor anyone but the Wii, really.

Given that the Wii is currently catering largely to local multiplayer orientated players then is it not fair to assume the cost of the wand up to and inclusive of two players? Wii Play is one of the most popular items out there of all times for example.

One thing which will elude the PS3 is at least a large predictable audience of people who have both a PS3 and a wand. I don't see how the metrics will move any more in favour of the PS3 here compared to the Wii.
 
When talking about pricing, we'll also need to consider the value. Perhaps WiiFit would be a good move towards Natal, but Wiimote+ (WiiSports Resort/Tennis/Golf) will require faster and more accurate tracking, hence more suitable for Arc (ARC) ?


[size=-2]... assuming Nintendo doesn't do anything.[/size]
 
One thing which will elude the PS3 is at least a large predictable audience of people who have both a PS3 and a wand. I don't see how the metrics will move any more in favour of the PS3 here compared to the Wii.

It's a matter of perception from third parties. They're getting to the point where they're all but outright stating that they're not going to try for anything 'traditional' on the Wii. There's no such stigma on the PS3, people who buy PS3s are the same sort of 18-34ish male demographic that was the focus last-gen. Of course, if wand-focused games bomb, people will stop supporting them, but I don't think anyone's going to go out of their way to support the wand in the first place. At best we'll see gimmicks, stuff like pointer controls in shooters.
 
Isn't voice recognition/commands also part of the Natal package.

We don't know how many of the features from that concept video have held through. Voice recognition already exists in games (End War), will MS offer a specific implementation in their libraries? Or is it simply the presence of a microphone as part of Natal?
 
We don't know how many of the features from that concept video have held through. Voice recognition already exists in games (End War), will MS offer a specific implementation in their libraries? Or is it simply the presence of a microphone as part of Natal?

Hopefully it will be something more robust and maybe even something akin to Sync on Ford vehicles. It would be really great if I can just say play "80's playlist" and Natal automatically does. I guess the same can apply to TV shows, vids, etc. There is an opportunity here that I hope MS and Sony doesn't miss the boat on.

It's strange that I'm more excited for the other possibilities outside of games.
 
It's a matter of perception from third parties. They're getting to the point where they're all but outright stating that they're not going to try for anything 'traditional' on the Wii. There's no such stigma on the PS3, people who buy PS3s are the same sort of 18-34ish male demographic that was the focus last-gen. Of course, if wand-focused games bomb, people will stop supporting them, but I don't think anyone's going to go out of their way to support the wand in the first place. At best we'll see gimmicks, stuff like pointer controls in shooters.

The Wii still has a chance of redemption whereas they could simply look at the adoption rate for the technology and decide that its not worth the bother. Would they not need at least 10M units sold of their Arc before 3rd party publishers take it seriously as a target to publish games for?

Im not really considering the technical merits of the release, but the point is Sony probably cannot afford the cost/risk of bundling the technology whereas Microsoft certainly can. I don't think its at all about technical merits, but who has the largest bank account and whos willing to put the most on the line to succeed.
 
Would they not need at least 10M units sold of their Arc before 3rd party publishers take it seriously as a target to publish games for?

The same issue applies to Natal. The cross platform developers will just create more of the same games for all 2 or 3 platforms to mitigate the risk. Naturally, there will be some exclusives from first parties and other developers who have specific ideas they want to try.
 
The same issue applies to Natal. The cross platform developers will just create more of the same games for all 2 or 3 platforms to mitigate the risk. Naturally, there will be some exclusives from first parties and other developers who have specific ideas they want to try.

Its just that I get the impression from Microsofts statements that Natal is going to be bundled to some degree.
 
I think Natal will excel in its consistency (especially under poor lighting)
huh? this is the recoginition that failed to pick ppl up cause there skin was too dark j/k
Exercise games, educational titles, media apps
thats a given
and women applications
I have to differ there, I think the (pleasure) wand would be more appropriate.
sorry terrible not even funny joke.
I can guarantee one thing with the wand every male person will at one stage put the thing put the thing before their crotch at least once, actually heaven Ild be tempted to buy one just for the laugh
 
The Wii still has a chance of redemption whereas they could simply look at the adoption rate for the technology and decide that its not worth the bother.

There's no redemption coming this generation. In fact, it's moving the other way.

Im not really considering the technical merits of the release, but the point is Sony probably cannot afford the cost/risk of bundling the technology whereas Microsoft certainly can.
We don't know the price point of these devices at all, and again, you don't need to bundle tons of them. The Wii only comes with one wiimote + nunchuck, the presence of multiplayer games pushes people to buy more controllers. Wii owners not owning more than one controller has never been an issue with the system.

Again, for both solutions we're probably looking at devices that don't cost more than $10 to make.

Its just that I get the impression from Microsofts statements that Natal is going to be bundled to some degree.

Maybe, you're still talking about a year's worth of sales before it reaches that 10M number, somewhere in 2012. And that's assuming that all 360s sold in 2011 have Natal. Unless we expect hardware sales to explode thanks to Natal.
 
There's no redemption coming this generation. In fact, it's moving the other way.
'

That may be so, although I have a feeling the market does exist on the Wii but the significant level of piracy in this market as seen by the recent 1M downloads of House of the Dead overkill is problematic.

We don't know the price point of these devices at all, and again, you don't need to bundle tons of them. The Wii only comes with one wiimote + nunchuck, the presence of multiplayer games pushes people to buy more controllers. Wii owners not owning more than one controller has never been an issue with the system.

The Wii comes with software which requires more than one controller to effectively use. This is really good software, between Mario Kart, Wii Sports etc theres a strong incentive for people to buy up to four of them. Its the software which justifies the expense of the hardware and if the software isn't nearly as good as Nintendos, which it probably won't be, the mission to get people to buy another two or three wands is a tough one and thats especially true if they're priced between $40-50 each or for a pair. Natal on the other hand doesn't have this problem because it can work with up to four people from a single base.

Again, for both solutions we're probably looking at devices that don't cost more than $10 to make.
I wouldn't say that. There are significant margins that a console manufacturer and retailer will have to take to make that $10 device cost $50. Though I suspect its closer to $20 or $25 all up.



Maybe, you're still talking about a year's worth of sales before it reaches that 10M number, somewhere in 2012. And that's assuming that all 360s sold in 2011 have Natal. Unless we expect hardware sales to explode thanks to Natal.

There are say currently at least 30M active Xbox 360s out there from an install base of 37M barring breakages, inactive users and multiple console users. If they bundled it from the start of the holiday season they could easily get 4-5M into the hands of people within 3 months and they would only need an attach rate of 20% from their active userbase to get them over the 10M mark by the end of Q4. That lines up pretty comfortably with the proportion of their userbase which uses Guitar Hero/Rockband peripherals.
 
I wouldn't say that. There are significant margins that a console manufacturer and retailer will have to take to make that $10 device cost $50. Though I suspect its closer to $20 or $25 all up.

Which are irrelevant when we're talking about a console maker pushing adoption of some piece of hardware. I'm talking about taking a loss, or even selling these things at cost.

There are say currently at least 30M active Xbox 360s out there from an install base of 37M barring breakages, inactive users and multiple console users. If they bundled it from the start of the holiday season they could easily get 4-5M into the hands of people within 3 months and they would only need an attach rate of 20% from their active userbase to get them over the 10M mark by the end of Q4. That lines up pretty comfortably with the proportion of their userbase which uses Guitar Hero/Rockband peripherals.

Hold on. You're first talking about bundling, then about existing users picking up the hardware. There's no reason this wouldn't apply to the wand.
 
Its just that I get the impression from Microsofts statements that Natal is going to be bundled to some degree.

Sony may take a similar approach:
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/ps3-motion-controller-delayed-till-autumn

According to Sony the controller will work with the PlayStation Eye camera. It's said to "detect the natural and intuitive movement of the hand and reflect the precise movement within the game, delivering a whole new entertainment experience on PS3". The plan is for the new peripheral to become the de facto controller for PS3 "along with" the Dual Shock pad.

Natal should be cheaper because there is no incremental controller cost (for more players), and they can again engage in a price war vs PS3 and Wii this time. Sony and Nintendo will have their own tricks to differentiate themselves.
 
Which are irrelevant when we're talking about a console maker pushing adoption of some piece of hardware. I'm talking about taking a loss, or even selling these things at cost.

Well I would like to see where you'd get $10 for a pair of wands and an improved Eyetoy. Thats 2x Dual shock motors (they pay a royalty on those), 2x Blu Tooth reciever/transmitters, electronics, battery. So I would say you're close to $10 on the one wand.



Hold on. You're first talking about bundling, then about existing users picking up the hardware. There's no reason this wouldn't apply to the wand.

I was talking about the overall userbase of bundled + bought. My expectation is that both will be sold at retail whereas the Natal interface would also be bundled due to comments made that the Xbox 360 would be 'Relaunched'. Since I cannot make the same expectation of Sony's system due to their present financial situtation, my assumption at this point is Natal will be bundled and Arc will not. So therefore my expectation is barring some unforseen event Natal will gain a useful userbase to sell content to quicker than Arc will.
 
The same issue applies to Natal. The cross platform developers will just create more of the same games for all 2 or 3 platforms to mitigate the risk. Naturally, there will be some exclusives from first parties and other developers who have specific ideas they want to try.

Well, somewhere back in the thread I believe there was a quote that around 70% (I think that was the number) of all software devs/publishers were working on Natal inclusion in games. Now, how far they have progressed and what types of games/risk will be involved who knows.

The thing is, I have seen much from the Sony camp as to how hard they are pushing for their motion controls to be included and/or featured in games with devs/pubs.

Likewise, the rumor with MS pushing all internal devs to release something for Natal. I haven't heard the same rumblings with regards to Sony's internal devs.

I just get this feeling that MS is taking motion controls more seriously than Sony. Of course, that same investment could be either good or bad. If it turns out to be the next big thing the investment will have been worth it. If it turns out to just be the next gimmick that fades away, then probably not.

In other words, it seems Sony is taking a more conservative/low risk approach while MS is going all in/high risk with their system.

Regards,
SB
 
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