NPD December 2009

[patsu]

The baseline is Wii. The integration and support should be at a similar level if they want to attract Wii upgraders. *If* they make the ARC controller "open" like one of their patents suggested, it may also support vitality sensor as a plug-in.

MS's "no controller" approach will require more marketing and experiments. Sony already has some experiences with camera-based games (There may be less tendency for them to adopt the "cast the net wide" approach). I have no idea what developer support for ARC is like since Sony has been quiet since the initial announcement.

They seem to be distracted by 3D gaming. Not sure how both are related. Perhaps the "Augmented Reality" angle is it (ARC could stand for Augmented Reality Controller). The concept may not be centered around the controller/no controller per se, but spotlight on some sort of digital playground/Holodeck where the controller (or no-controller when only PSEye is applied) is merely one element of the total "picture". The computer-controlled Orb lighting could also provide different ambience for the playing field. I think only Sony knows. It would serve to explain why the controller name is only ARC (Just my guess, so don't take it too seriously).

EDIT: Come to think of it, it may fit their slogan: "Live in your world, play in ours"

ARC could also be Alternate Reality Controller. The controller may be different depending on what you're trying to measure.

Also for 3DTV gaming, my 3D gaming friend bragged that he could time and throw a grenade so that it will explode at the right place in mid-air to kill enemies (because he could visualize the grenade path much easier). I'll ask him a few days later to see if he's blowing smoke.

 

[corduroygt]

Natal should be cheaper because there is no incremental controller cost (for more players), and they can again engage in a price war vs PS3 and Wii this time. Sony and Nintendo will have their own tricks to differentiate themselves.

Most people buying 360's don't think about the extra cost of accesories and Live down the road. They only see the low base price. In this regard, I believe Sony and Nintendo are in a better position to have an extra revenue stream from the sales of motion controllers. Only include one with the console, and the others will cost less than $10 to make and sell for $50, just like the current controllers.

 

[NRP]

I don't have nearly the level of faith in motion controls that most of you seem to, but I admit I tend to lack vision.

IMO, at least for gaming, anything short of a full on virtual reality "holodeck-style" experience will be little more than a gimmick.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I don't have nearly the level of faith in motion controls that most of you seem to, but I admit I tend to lack vision.

Heh, despite being an overall pessimist, I have a lot of faith/hope in technology that doesn't always work out.

Like back in the 90's I kept thinking how wonderful voice recognition would be. Except it wasn't all that great or useful until arguably the Sync System in Ford vehicles.

So, yes, I'm quite prepared to be disappointed in hands free motion controls, but I can't help but be optimistic about its possibilities. Perhaps even more so the ability to enhance the experience of a conventional controller than the purely hands free experience on console. On PC however, I have extremely high hopes (and will probably be disappointed by implementation) for motion + voice hands free experience.

Regards,
SB

 

[patsu]

It could work in very narrow context.

I don't have nearly the level of faith in motion controls that most of you seem to, but I admit I tend to lack vision.

IMO, at least for gaming, anything short of a full on virtual reality "holodeck-style" experience will be little more than a gimmick.

It is gimmicky, but postage stamp sized QuickTime movie used to be gimmicky too. Now computer video playback is everywhere.

The only likely saving grace here is the gamer audience. If it's fun, some gamers may take it.


If it's the holodeck idea, it's too advanced/expensive for deployment and has too many pieces. But it serves as a technical vision and could be used to drive technical abstraction and design (even API design !). The final product may be different, just like how MS shrunk from "every camera has a chip" to the current simplified form.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

If it's the holodeck idea, it's too advanced/expensive for deployment and has too many pieces. But it serves as a technical vision and could be used to drive technical abstraction and design (even API design !). The final product may be different, just like how MS shrunk from "every camera has a chip" to the current simplified form.

Speaking of Holodeck. Ooooh, using an ATI Eyefinity 6 video card, you can map a display to top, bottom, and all four sides surrounding you with a Natal unit as a control device.

Not practical in the least, but hopefully someone in University will do something like that as a research project.

Regards,
SB

 

[baten]

The 360 people are more of the shooting type guys. If Natal is not useful to shooting games, especially FPS, I doubt it will make a huge impact.
With PS3, it's difficult to say. Very ecclectic bunch.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

MS hopes Natal will atract non-shooter people - they're not building Natal to serve the existing customer base which they've already sold to!

 

[patsu]

Speaking of Holodeck. Ooooh, using an ATI Eyefinity 6 video card, you can map a display to top, bottom, and all four sides surrounding you with a Natal unit as a control device.

Not practical in the least, but hopefully someone in University will do something like that as a research project.

Camera-based systems like PSEye and Natal are cool. I think they will attract a boatload of casuals when marketed brilliantly. However besides potential tracking accuracy and speed issues, they are missing a very critical dimension of reality: "Solid" feedback from the game (at least tactile). That was the primary reason I refuse to use an iPhone (until someone basically paid me to do it).

If it's a research project...

A Holodeck will also need to track the players' thought. You don't see the Star Trek crew fling around to get the Holodeck to show something (anything). Minimally, some sort of head band controller is needed... like Uncle Milton's Force Trainer.

And then you need a real 3D display, at least on par with Princess Leia's 3D projection.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The Holodeck shouldn't be talked of here, as it's a true 3D recreation of a physical world and bears no resemblence to anything within the realm of even the most distant possibilities given our current tech! Virtual reality and haptic feedback is the next step up from 3D. I feel we're kinda jumping the gun if we're going after that already without 3D having even been achieved!

 

[obonicus]

Next thing you'll say, Shifty, is that we're nowhere close to developing replicator tech.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Ummm, no. Not at all. All that stuff in my garden shed is, um...dry-cleaning gear. Right.

 

[joker454]

MS hopes Natal will atract non-shooter people - they're not building Natal to serve the existing customer base which they've already sold to!

Exactly, I think that needs to be stickied some place Further, it might allow them to run two simultaneous hardware skus. The 360 doesn't die, instead it gets reborn as a casual persons console that happens to also play hardcore games. The hardcore meanwhile migrate eventually to the new higher priced Xbox 720 that plays all the latest hardcore games and they are happy there while the casuals are happy on the 360. Conveniently though the 720 runs 360 games, so eventually when the 720 drops a lot in price it will become the next casual players box and they can migrate over to it from their 360's with ease since all the software and peripherals they use will work. Similarly, the next hardcore box, the Xbox 1080 comes out and the hardcore migrate there over time, rinse and repeat. They can potentially set themselves up here where they can keep two pieces of hardware always running and milking the most cash from each because they have set themselves up nicely for backwards compatibility.

 

[Scott_Arm]

I know that this is supposed to be NPD only, but New Super Mario Bros. Wii has surpassed 10 million world wide, including 4.5 million in North America. Does the 4.5 million jive with NPD?

http://wii.ign.com/articles/106/1063216p1.html

 

[patsu]

The Holodeck shouldn't be talked of here, as it's a true 3D recreation of a physical world and bears no resemblence to anything within the realm of even the most distant possibilities given our current tech! Virtual reality and haptic feedback is the next step up from 3D. I feel we're kinda jumping the gun if we're going after that already without 3D having even been achieved!

Not Holodeck per se, but augmented reality and off-screen/haptic feedback. You don't really need 3D unless the player can benefit from the added depth perception.

An interesting approach is the integration of various AR technologies via "abstract"/standard API (e.g., Multiple things can happen when the player character dies). That way we can add more AR gimmicks after the game has been released. Or we can improve the controller without changing the game.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

The Holodeck shouldn't be talked of here, as it's a true 3D recreation of a physical world and bears no resemblence to anything within the realm of even the most distant possibilities given our current tech! Virtual reality and haptic feedback is the next step up from 3D. I feel we're kinda jumping the gun if we're going after that already without 3D having even been achieved!

Not 3 dimensional hallucinogenic holodeck as in Star Trek obviously.

Just an intriguing idea for a controller less room where your environment is projected on all 6 surfaces surrounding you. And you can interact with objects above, below, and surrounding you that are projected on those surfaces with natural movements. The environment doesn't have to be adjusted to your POV as it's surrounding you in all directions. It just have to be able to track your movements and determine what in the environment you are attempting to interact with.

Basically a very advanced form of the Doom cave that fascinated people years ago.

It could provide some interesting research possibilities.

Regards,
SB

 

[.Melchiah.]

Exactly, I think that needs to be stickied some place Further, it might allow them to run two simultaneous hardware skus. The 360 doesn't die, instead it gets reborn as a casual persons console that happens to also play hardcore games. The hardcore meanwhile migrate eventually to the new higher priced Xbox 720 that plays all the latest hardcore games and they are happy there while the casuals are happy on the 360. Conveniently though the 720 runs 360 games, so eventually when the 720 drops a lot in price it will become the next casual players box and they can migrate over to it from their 360's with ease since all the software and peripherals they use will work. Similarly, the next hardcore box, the Xbox 1080 comes out and the hardcore migrate there over time, rinse and repeat. They can potentially set themselves up here where they can keep two pieces of hardware always running and milking the most cash from each because they have set themselves up nicely for backwards compatibility.

How is this known for a fact, when the system isn't even released yet (not to mention, that its specs haven't been publicized)?

And to even talk about the 4th Xbox being backwards compatible with the 3rd, nearly a decade before it's release, just sounds ludicrous.

 

[NRP]

None of these are "known facts", just speculation on possible business strategies. It's all hypothetical. Relax.

 

[patsu]

Yap, but the 6 surfaces idea may have limited use. Very few household have "perfect" rooms to mount all 6 display surfaces. From research or commercial angle, go for more advanced form of (large) 3D display/projection. It should take up less room.

For Xbox 360/720, PS3/4, it's just transition strategy... If the software layer is mature, it may not disrupt the users that much.

 

[dobwal]

Not 3 dimensional hallucinogenic holodeck as in Star Trek obviously.

Just an intriguing idea for a controller less room where your environment is projected on all 6 surfaces surrounding you. And you can interact with objects above, below, and surrounding you that are projected on those surfaces with natural movements. The environment doesn't have to be adjusted to your POV as it's surrounding you in all directions. It just have to be able to track your movements and determine what in the environment you are attempting to interact with.

Basically a very advanced form of the Doom cave that fascinated people years ago.

It could provide some interesting research possibilities.

Regards,
SB

Wouldn't we better off with more advanced VR google tech. Having basically six surface projecting images means that the virtual enviroment would exist outside the dimensions of the room including all interaction. Any virtual avatar of yourself would have to be projected away from you while with VR googles and tech similar to Natal you could project the avatar onto yourself with the possibility of 1:1 movement.

Nevermind the limitation regarding two or more people making use of the room simultaneously. Im sure two googles would be cheaper than retro fitting two rooms with the tech you are describing.