NPD August 2008

All right, but apart from the sanitation, medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh water system and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?

 

Not really the same thing though. These games didn't have people pilling around demo-booths at Comic Con etc. If you look at games that have had that same busy-booth-or-long-line-of-interested-people, and also notice the reaction of all these people, all smiling, I think the feedback from showings is very positive in a broad way.

 

They seem to be making a killing on peripherals. It would be interesting if they stopped building the machines, but games with custom peripherals for the other consoles. But really, they've made boatloads of money off the DS and Wii hardware, so I don't know why they'd want to get out of that business.

 

I don't agree at all.
Why would Nintendo leave the hardware software?
They make money on the hardwaren, on the peripherals, not to mention that by selling the hard they are securing bunch of money with royalties too.
Nintendo is not the only one selling software on the Wii.

Between I still don't dismiss the possibility of Nintendo while dominating take evrybody it's pant down with the Wii2 ~2010 to secure a strong position on the HD market.

 

I always look at games sold rather then console sold. becuase I know 3-4 times the amount of people who own PS3 compared to 360's. Which has me wondering about installed base.

 

I think that's my main point.

$199 isn't worth much without the package being whole. Now the 360 has hit the magic $199 mark, its massive back-catalogue of games is available to a whole new audience. It's not about "Gears 2 at $199 will bring in x" for me - it's $199 plus Gears1, Bioshock, Viva (yes I love it!), the free XBLA games, DMC4, GTA4, this gen's JRPG console, the sports games people seem to love that I can't quite fathom, etc, etc.

That in addition to the strong library coming out this year - I don't think it's fair to say Gears2 is the only game worth buying a 360 for this year, but that's not worth debating since I'm not likely to change your mind either way - the price drop will make the console much more attractive. I'd be very surprised if the monthly sales numbers stabilised to a much higher level over Oct-Nov and 1H-09 than the 150 to 200 it's been at this year.

 

Why the magic $199 mark? I mean, it's cheap, no doubt, but why is this number magic? I mean, I know there's some history, but that's the problem with discussing trends in videogames. I just don't think that there are enough datapoints to really make any accurate predictions. There have been a handful of generations, and the generations themselves are pretty different that I wonder if you can really pick up on trends. I mean, the companies themselves seem not to have learned from others' mistakes. I suspect that this is why analysts (armchair and professionals) are about as accurate as a coin toss.

I actually will be somewhat surprised if anything any of the two companies does while chasing the same demographic makes a meaningful impact. I think any actual difference in sales will come from titles like RB2, which MS only has a 2 week lead on, and Lips/You're in the Movies/Scene-It. I think that if Nintendo can keep supply up, the Wii will seriously cannibalize GH:WT/RB2(when it arrives) sales (in contrast, I don't think Wii Music will appeal to enough people to make a blip beyond Nintendo fans). But again, because of what I said above, I wouldn't be too surprised if I'm (or anyone, really) completely off. I'm hoping to get over the Age of Surprises.

 

exactly there are many games at reduced, platinum or used prices that will fuel the laggard's gaming appetite when they sign in to Next Gen at $199.

there is a gigantic segment of people that wait for just this moment, Under $200, a mature system (New Xbox Experience, huge catalog of highly acclaimed games, friends on Live already) to jump in. They aren't waiting for that "one" game. They are waiting for that moment where the experience meets their perception of Value.

Hell, here you can trade in a PS2 or Xbox 1 at GS right now for $30 + an extra $30 bonus at some stores, add that to trading in a catalog of old gen games and some people will walk out with am arcade X360 system for ~$120.

 

Choices, choices.. Interesting...

Which one would you buy?

- 399$ Elite 360 or 499$ PS3/160
- 399$ PS3/80 or 499$ PS3/80
- 299$ Pro 360 or 399$ PS3/80
- 129$ PS2 or 199$ Arcade 360.
- 199$ Arcade 360 or 299$ Pro 360

Honestly, it seems it all comes down to how much you are willing to spend. If we factor only the hardware value, buying a PS3/80 makes more sense to me than getting a 360 Pro because of the bluray drive, but equally, buying an Arcade 360 rather than a PS2 makes more sense too.

However, not eveyone has 100$ extra to spend. Some ppl has only 300$ to spend so they will get a 360. Some ppl has only 130$ so they will get a PS2.

 

Which is the real question, and the one we have no insight on besides anecdotes.

 

He was being a jackass in response to my emphasis on Rangers' earlier point that LTD sales of the PS3 and 360 outstrip the Wii.

Nobody said Nintendo should leave the hardware business, he was building a strawman rather than taking on the intellectually more difficult task of addressing the impact of the PS3/360 sales success in reference to current explanations for the Wii's success.

It's very possible that this 'new market' doesn't actually exist and it's very possible that all this talk about 'gameplay over graphics' based on the Wii's success is misguided as well.

It's possible that the Wii's success is attributable mainly to it's lower price point and catalog of IP, not any of the other conclusions that people have eager to draw.

 

I completely miss his point...
your point are interesting but I won't comment further as it would be based on anecdotical evidences with zero proof of relevance in regard to the whole picture

 

Don't discount impressive marketing, either. I'm starting to believe that while the new market exists, it's not as big as people would like to believe. Rather, I think the truth is that the PS2 userbase was far more casual than anyone suspected, and that 'core gamers' are a minority (and brand loyalty is irrelevant to anyone but the hardcore fans).

 

there are what 10 or 11 exclusive games left between now and the end of dec.
Gears 2 , Fable 2 , The two square games , Left 4 dead , Lips , Banjo , viva pinata to name a few. Don't really get where they don't have games and its up to gears 2 to sell things. They have just as diverse of an offering this holiday season as Sony. In some ways with the square rpgs they have a better JRPG offering and with Fable 2 and the exlcusive fallout content they have a better WRPG offering.

If anyone looks at line ups they will see great games on both systems but they will see the 360 entry point at $200 less than the ps3. You can argue that it doesn't come with everything you need. However to some consumers it may be better spending $200 now and then 4 or 5 months later buying an hdmi cable and a 60 gig hardrive for another $100 giving you all you need to buy for less than the ps3 still. Than spending $400 up front and not having hd cables with your system. Some people esp with the way the ecnomy is going wont be able to spend $400 on a big ticket item.

 

I don't think calling Xbox 360 more mature in the market is disingenuous. Blu-ray is still in early adopter market, PS3 just hits its stride. 360 has a more mainstream pricing, a larger game library (with platinum prices), and more time in the market. MS will get more cost conscious core gamers and some casuals with the price drop. This is to be expected.

As for Blu-ray, it has its own movement (last estimated @ 6% of total DVD volume in US now, and a pre-announced $100 drop by fall). This year, BDA is projecting a higher Blu-ray drive sales (as opposed to BR players). It doesn't necessarily overlap with game console sales. Blu-ray will only enter mainstream next year. Then, we may, or may not, start to see Blu-ray as a meaningful buying factor (whether it's avaialble for a mere $100 extra is a separate question altogether; people have to desire it first).

This is generally true, but it does not prevent Sony from getting creative ^_^
As important as the profit is the positioning and the momentum. We will see diverging approach from all 3 vendors this fall.

 

No, I was avoiding the fool's errand of trying to argue with someone who is particularly obsessed with the "< 50% of total LTD next-gen sales" milestone as apparently the only meaningful metric of sales performance. Also, given that Wii's LTD sales at ~47% of the console market worldwide and ~44% in the USA (assuming VGChartz is stealing its ww LTD numbers accurately enough), and given the frequency and magnitude with which Wii monthly sales outnumber PS3 and 360 combined, it may very well break that 50% barrier soon enough...then what will you dwell on?

The "new market" stuff is based on demographic studies, not mere anecdotes. For example, While at last count 79% of Wii owners (read: buyers) were male, 45% of Wii players are female. Whether or not the console gains 51% of LTD sales doesn't actually say much about demographics.

 

Except that we're talking about owners, not players. Bringing players in just makes a murky discussion even more murky. How does this compare to last-gen, since ostensibly most Wii owners in the US also owned a PS2? How do you count 'players', exactly? What does that number mean? Meaningless demographics are, well, meaningless.

 

Maybe it has, but only after the goal post has been moved back few times...

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?co...&reg2=America&cons3=XB&reg3=America&weeks=100

If you had seen that graph before the launch of PS3, would you still have said that it will settle down very well? In reality that is a big letdown from the PS2 era. Looking at that graph, I'd say that it has only settled down with not much positives in it (notice how PS3 is doing against Xbox1). Now if the goal post is moved back, then naturally the situation can be seen in a different light.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?co...&reg2=America&cons3=XB&reg3=America&weeks=150

X360 is however beating it's predecessor with a nice margin. Sony is still nicely in the race and has some advantages, but compared to last gen, its a whole another ball game and people shouldn't forget how much things have changed.

 

And not software library at all?

Some people will want to play Singstar ABBA, and then PS2 is the cheapest option. Some people may want to play LBP and then they have to pick a PS3. Some people may want to play Fable 2, and then the PS3 isn't an option. The only time software library becomes irrelevant and it's hardware price alone that decides is if the library for all platforms matches the buyers taste. And even then it's not just the hardware price only. There's marketing/machine cred, preferences in controllers if someone's tried them out, preferences in services, and all sorts. Hardware price is always just one factor in buying decisions.

 

wow ps3 couldn't even beat 360 the last month of the year it actually had a chance to...