We' re also the people who were hyped about No More Heroes, Eternal Darkness, Okami, and Jet Grind Radio. That's why I was wondering...anecdotal excitement on forums doesn't seem to imply much when it comes to sales.
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Wait, except for No More Heroes, a great number of console gamers have fond, and I mean very fond memories of having experienced ED, Okami and Jet Grind Radio, but those gamers are hard core for the most part who cannot be trusted when it comes to sales, same can be said for casuals because they cannot be trusted when it comes to sales.
Its like if they just ported the Sims again and everyone fell under a rain of casual mediocrety.
It's time for Nintendo to go software-only.
Nice try, I'm sure I could use something Darth Vader said in Ep IV to make that statement seem insignificant next to Nintendo Power.
The PS3 is definately doing well at it's current price point, however, the comparison to the 360 as a "more mature" platform is disingenuous. It _should_ be selling well, it hasn't yet tapped out the core gamer demographic, which the 360 is starting to saturate now. The first 10 million is easy money. It's the next 30 million that is the uphill slog. The 360 is now starting on that slog, in which you have to switch your appeal from feature conscious customers, to value conscious customers. Your average family playing rock band, or singstar, or lips is not going to care about the blu-ray on their SD 27" CRT display. They _are_ going to care that they can essentially get the same value (in games) for half the price.
So you don't think that a value conscious consumer is not going to know about the RRoD or that they will eventually be forced to pay for peripherals that should have been included from day one?
The $199.00 "Arcade" X360 is hardly a value to even a casual gamer, it seems more as a way to position the console to challenge Nintendo Wii sales, but the problem here is that Nintendo Wii is getting free press from casual publications, sites and tv programs so what makes you think that those same casuals if asked about the $199.00 X360 are seriously going to recommend the purchase when Nintendo has all the features, the kid friendly games, Wii Fit and most important of all low hardware failiures.
It would be really ugly if those same casuals were told to buy them and 33 or hell even 10 percent of those casuals get a RRoD, its like playing with matches in a fireworks storage house.
Except that with the new prices, I can get an XBox 360 and a Sony BD player for only $30 more than a PS3. And I can do it over 2 months in more digestible chunks, instead of all at once, thus saving me some sticker shock. As the price of BD drives comes down, it will not only affect the price of the PS3, but also the standalones, and they'll reduce in price faster because their chipsets are far simpler and easier to cost reduce than the PS3. With Sony now focused on profitability like the Xbox folks were last year, they'll be reluctant to price reduce aggressively, especially since 200K a month in the non-holiday months is damn respectable at their price point.
Other than {List of things that will cause effect} what will cause this effect?
Maybe some one can see buying two separate items that equal one item's price as less of a sticker shock since you are buying separate but in the end the smart consumer knows to buy the all in one box since that is going to take up less power sockets and therefore not force you to buy more power strips or surge protectors.
But in the end its really going to come down to if the average consumers are as well informed as we think they are, then again we don't run focus groups (personally I hate that concept).
I'd say that the price drop all by itself will be the biggest contributor. No idea what Gears 2 will do for console sales, due to the previously mentioned possible saturation of the hardcore market. My predictions are that it's the games that aren't the "usual suspects" that will drive console sales. The one month Rock Band exclusive, Lips, Banjo Kazooie and Fable 2. The extra value being added to Live with the gameshows stuff and netflix, and so on doesn't hurt either.
I don't deny that MS XBox360 will get a major boost in sales come the next NPD on price drop stats.
I am aware that we should not speculate too much into the future but other than Gears 2 I don't see anything screamming to the non-console having customer to go out and buy since Fable 2 is more likely to be purchased by those who played the first one, Banjo Kazooie is chasing former Nintendo players (a major unknown) and all the other stuff you mentioned seems to require XBL.
As far as I can see it will be a bloodbath three way war where Sony and MS are throwing tomatoes at each other and Nintendo is safely watching from the Skybox while sipping Crystal with the Game-Girls.
