Now the war is over wishfull thinkers please explain how blu will ever replace DVD.

[_xxx_]

The comparison to DVD right now is useless, since you can buy a cheap DVD player for like 4 packs of cigarretes here. and the average Joe will still go for that if BR is way more expensive.

As they get cheaper, people will gradually jump on them by default, so the "big" market penetration will develop itself when the time's ripe. No magic needed there.

 

[quest55720]

Ease of use, DVR, and 100s of channels are a win in my book.

I have 3 HD-DVRs that all record ota and are my main source of entertainment.

 

[quest55720]

They will soon notice that they aren't.

I couldn't believe how crap SD content looked (and still looks) on my HDTV, now if everyone buys a nice plasma then they won't notice, but the vast majority don't buy plasma, they buy LCDs so sooner or later they are going to see something ain't right.

Everytime something changes you could bring up this same argument, VHS>DVD, Tape>CD, 4:3>16:9, SD>HD, the better option always proves it's worth to even the most clueless of potential buyers within a few years, they all have friends who know more that will be saying "you got a blu-ray player yet mate"

Depends on the SD source upscaled DVD hardly looks like crap IMO. Standard cable, dish and direct TV yep they look like garbage on a HD-TV. If all SD sources looked as good as DVD I am not sure I would of invested in 3 HD-DVRs and extra money for the HD package.

 

[DJ12]

The only people I know with upscaling DVD players are those that post on here.

So please stop assuming everyone has an upscaling DVD when the likely number of people that do is probably less than 5% of all DVD player owners. They are also the ones most clued up to the fact HD is better than SD and are likely to go with Blu-Ray now it's won anyway.

 

[Vic]

I think it is a misconception to believe that people are buying HDTVs (primarily) in order to watch HD content.

IMO, the most important reasons why J6P buys a HDTV are:
- The old tv set is out of order
- Bigger screen size
- Want to be "future-proof" and/or lack of SD models (it's getting pretty hard to get any reasonable sized sd tv set)

For ordinary people buying a reasonable large TV set is quite an investment, they expect to hold on to it for at least 7-10 years. So they are willing to spend a bit more on it. Not so with dvd players. These are replaced quicker and so people do not like to spend as much.

Regarding upscaled DVD and upscaled 1080p: When I look into the papers most advertised HDTVs are still 1376x768 here in germany, so even if people have HDTV only a minority has 1080p. I expect it's similar in other countries. Then the percieved difference in PQ depends pretty much on screen size and viewing distance (and the eyes of the viewer, a fact that is often forgotten). At screen sizes < 40" and normal living room viewing distance (>= 3m) the difference is observable but not huge. The PQ difference between VHS and DVD was much larger here. So, for most people (think J6P) DVD quality is still good enough and they won't start buying HD (regulary) until the price of HD media falls to DVD levels (or at least comes close to it) or average screen sizes climb to or above 40" (or living rooms get smaller).

I just think people must have really bad eyesight not to tell the difference. If Joe average is happy with DVD, I can see that argument. But comparing Pirates DVD and Blu-ray just brought home the disparity to me.

 

[Vic]

Their DVD players work with their new HDTVs and their old DVDs too. It doesn't cost them £150. Many of them will assume that they're getting HD anyway because they've just bought an HDTV.

I think thats what the salesperson is for. They'll be informing thick Joe of the difference between SD and HD.

 

[Geo]

There was a recent study that showed 20% of HDTV owners were getting no HD content and didn't realize it. People don't know what they don't know until someone shows them.

 

[quest55720]

There was a recent study that showed 20% of HDTV owners were getting no HD content and didn't realize it. People don't know what they don't know until someone shows them.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/24/new...dtveducation/index.htm?postversion=2007092414

I think you are right I think HD is very confusing to people. I also think CE makers don't do themselves any favors by not including proper cables to hook up new devices. I wonder how many PS3s out there are hooked up via composite since that is the cable that comes with it. I wonder how many have the HD-cable box hooked up via composite or if even possible coax. I wonder how many people buy a upscaling DVD player and hook it up via composite or component and the player not upscaling and them not noticing. I think CEs including a HDMI cable with every HDMI capable device would go a long way to get rid of confusion and make HDMI the new composite/coax in the minds of cosumers ie the standard hook up. I know CEs are probably underpressure by places like BB and CC to not include those cables so they can sell that 100 dollar monster cable HMDI. The CEs really missed the boat IMO HDMI could be a great selling point to the average person because it makes hook up so much simpler. Easier and simpler is great for J6P.

If people are confused about things like HDMI, composite ect how do we expect them to be able to pull off firmware upgrades in that new player.

 

[patsu]

I think it is a misconception to believe that people are buying HDTVs (primarily) in order to watch HD content.

IMO, the most important reasons why J6P buys a HDTV are:
- The old tv set is out of order
- Bigger screen size
- Want to be "future-proof" and/or lack of SD models (it's getting pretty hard to get any reasonable sized sd tv set)

For ordinary people buying a reasonable large TV set is quite an investment, they expect to hold on to it for at least 7-10 years. So they are willing to spend a bit more on it. Not so with dvd players. These are replaced quicker and so people do not like to spend as much.

Regarding upscaled DVD and upscaled 1080p: When I look into the papers most advertised HDTVs are still 1376x768 here in germany, so even if people have HDTV only a minority has 1080p. I expect it's similar in other countries. Then the percieved difference in PQ depends pretty much on screen size and viewing distance (and the eyes of the viewer, a fact that is often forgotten). At screen sizes < 40" and normal living room viewing distance (>= 3m) the difference is observable but not huge. The PQ difference between VHS and DVD was much larger here. So, for most people (think J6P) DVD quality is still good enough and they won't start buying HD (regulary) until the price of HD media falls to DVD levels (or at least comes close to it) or average screen sizes climb to or above 40" (or living rooms get smaller).

Everyone will have their own reasons to buy or not buy into HD. It could be PQ, or it could be something else. Assorted HD products and their packaging also appeal to different profile of users (e.g., 360/PS3 is also a HD conversion "tool"). Across time, HD mindshare and penetration will increase as companies continue to spend marketing dollar on it, and consumers learn to accept HD as the norm.

For now, it really depends on which segment of consumers we are talking about. HD is not mainstream yet and appeals to only a fraction of the general population. BDA has said that they want to shift their focus to the consumers at large (instead of fighting against HD DVD). This means that their messaging and marketing approach will change.

To be successful, it will need to address your points above. The price issue is something that will be sorted out across time as volume increases. For now, they will continue to use discounts/bundles to entice people who are "ready" to make the jump.

Their new approach will likely focus on (i) the unique values of HD (brands), and (ii) the "urgency" to buy one. They will also try to make themselves relevant to consumer's lives (e.g., by creating or latching on to the latest hot trends). At its peak, we may even see blitz/bombardment of HD items (e.g., HD laptops, HD cameras, HD download, ...). They will not limit themselves to just picture quality.

 

[Vic]

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/24/new...dtveducation/index.htm?postversion=2007092414

If people are confused about things like HDMI, composite ect how do we expect them to be able to pull off firmware upgrades in that new player.

So what you're saying is, 70% of the US population is borderline retarded?

 

[SPM]

I know that all of my friends who have HDTVs are in a similar position (though a couple have PS3s and have purchased maybe a couple of Blu-ray movies) and, until HD broadcasts become commonplace on terrestrial TV (i.e. free transmissions), I can't really see HD really becoming as important as some in this thread seem to think it already is.

In this case, until HD broadcasts are more widely available, HD players are even more important/desirable, since it is their only way of getting HD content. This is a factor that would favour the early purchase of HD players rather than hinder it even if the prices are high, and given that 90% or so of new TV sets are HDTV rather than SDTV, there are a lot of people out there who will buy HD players.

 

[nutball]

In this case, until HD broadcasts are more widely available, HD players are even more important/desirable, since it is their only way of getting HD content. This is a factor that would favour the early purchase of HD players rather than hinder it even if the prices are high, and given that 90% or so of new TV sets are HDTV rather than SDTV, there are a lot of people out there who will buy HD players.

This is completely head over heels wrong. "90% of new TV sets are HDTV" yet "HD media sales are ~1% of SD DVD sales". Really, stand back and think about that for a second.

 

[AlphaWolf]

The only people I know with upscaling DVD players are those that post on here.

um... I'd have to look to find a DVD player that didn't upscale in stores around here. Obviously they are horribly expensive, right?

So please stop assuming everyone has an upscaling DVD when the likely number of people that do is probably less than 5% of all DVD player owners. They are also the ones most clued up to the fact HD is better than SD and are likely to go with Blu-Ray now it's won anyway.

I suspect that anyone who has purchased a DVD player recently, has one that upscales, whether they actually have it hooked up to do so, or know that it does so might be a different argument. But the fact that these people aren't really bothering suggests they really aren't going to care a whole lot about HD either.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

um... I'd have to look to find a DVD player that didn't upscale in stores around here. Obviously they are horribly expensive, right?

Ah, but you see everyone already has a DVD player (or ten). If you're looking to add yet another player with the sole intent of increasing image quality, wouldn't you at least look at the HD standard(s)?

 

[DJ12]

um... I'd have to look to find a DVD player that didn't upscale in stores around here. Obviously they are horribly expensive, right?

I don't live "around here".

There are 3 upscaling DVD players available at Dixons out of 12.

And wasn't the point about quality upscaling that "rivals" lol HD formats?

Between £50 and £70 upscaling DVDs cost from Dixons/Currys which is the High Street electronics store your average clueless buyer is likely to visit.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I don't live "around here".

There are 3 upscaling DVD players available at Dixons out of 12.

And wasn't the point about quality upscaling that "rivals" lol HD formats?

Between £50 and £70 upscaling DVDs cost from Dixons/Currys which is the High Street electronics store your average clueless buyer is likely to visit.

No the point is that many people don't care about the difference.

 

[SPM]

This is completely head over heels wrong. "90% of new TV sets are HDTV" yet "HD media sales are ~1% of SD DVD sales". Really, stand back and think about that for a second.

You are talking about what happened in the past. I am talking about what will happen in the future.

Which means that now the format war is no longer holding back sales of HD players, HD player and media sales is set to boom. After all it is the only way of making proper use of those expensive HDTVs everyone is buying given the shortage of HD broadcasts. This will make HD media far more compelling than VCR or DVD was in the SDTV era.

If you have any doubt about the market share HDTVs command, just go to any electrical retail store and look at what is on sale. Of course it will take a while for newly purchased HDTVs to replace old SDTVs already in people's homes, but the changeover is 100% certain given the sales of HDTVs vs SDTVs. I would give it 6 years for HDTV to become completely the predominant media and broadcast standard. For media sales/rental, it may be a year or two earlier.

 

[quest55720]

Which means that now the format war is no longer holding back sales of HD players, HD player and media sales is set to boom. After all it is the only way of making proper use of those expensive HDTVs everyone is buying given the shortage of HD broadcasts. This will make HD media far more compelling than VCR or DVD was in the SDTV era.

I guess that depends on were you live and your provider. For me between OTA and direct tvs now HD line up I have lots and lots of hd content to choose from. There will be even more in a few months when the next sat launches and becomes operational. The new HD-channels by direct tv are much improved over the old ones with mpeg4 compression and full resolution. I would put the quality around an OTA station with 2 sub channels. Not the greatest but very acceptable right now.

 

[DJ12]

No the point is that many people don't care about the difference.

Well, I put it to you that many people do.

There, we both have unsubstantiated opinions, now where do we go

I think the people that don't really care about the difference by and large are the people that haven't really seen them in direct comparison. Sure there are people that will swear blind that they don't care while trying to argue a point, but if someone said "I have two free packages to give away, one DVD and DVD player with the highest quality upscaling you could ever ask for and the same movie but on blu-ray and blu-ray player". Which one would be chosen do you think?

I think a good portion of people, if they saw side by side, would care about the difference, they might not care enough about the current price gap, but blu-rar isn't going to start costing more and eventually (2~3 years tops is my guess) it will have come into the mass market price range.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Well, I put it to you that many people do.

There, we both have unsubstantiated opinions, now where do we go

I think the people that don't really care about the difference by and large are the people that haven't really seen them in direct comparison. Sure there are people that will swear blind that they don't care while trying to argue a point, but if someone said "I have two free packages to give away, one DVD and DVD player with the highest quality upscaling you could ever ask for and the same movie but on blu-ray and blu-ray player". Which one would be chosen do you think?

I think a good portion of people, if they saw side by side, would care about the difference, they might not care enough about the current price gap, but blu-rar isn't going to start costing more and eventually (2~3 years tops is my guess) it will have come into the mass market price range.

I'd take the blu-ray player and movie, and ebay it, then spend the profit on hookers and booze.