The path might have been somewhat different, but I think we would still have ended up with similar hardware today, just less powerful. Programmability in desktop graphics essentially took off when just outputting more multitextured pixels became less and less feasible (because bandwidth growth couldn't keep up), and no one really knew which advanced algorithms developers were longing for. You could argue that there was room for one or two additional years of "more pixels" – certainly anyone who wanted a V5 6000 would agree. But without agreement on what to implement, features like fixed function EMBM or tessellation were doomed. In an open platform, "more programmability" is sort of the lowest common denominator. And more programmability can have efficiency advantages, too.
Your points are well taken. "Programmability" isn't an absolute value though. Would we be where we are today? Or would we have stuck around at for instance DX9 SM3 level? "no one really knew what advanced algorithms developers were longing for" also implies to me that the process was driven by other considerations than developer interest, for example
* desire to raise the cost of entry for Intel, and of course companies like SIS, S3 and so on.
* desire to maintain an indisputable benefit over integrated graphics.
* desire to go out with a bang, so to speak - increase complexity and performance at the cost of huge dies and power draw, so that you can point to greater than CPU speed of "progress" with some legitimacy. This helps raise your market cap, so that once the inevitable happens, you'll get the highest possible price for your company.
By and large, I'd say that games developers would have gained from a slower rate of development, and greater adoption and lower cost of what would have been considered decent gaming graphics. So it makes sense to look at other contributing justifications. But it isn't a discussion for this thread, unfortunately, other than to note that the mobile market is
not desktop graphics, and shouldn't necessarily be expected to follow in those footsteps.
As long as you're able to define closely enough what the job is. I guess it could work in a closed platform, especially if it's from Nintendo.
Of course it works. And Nintendo knows that they are making a hand held game console. It needs to produce 3D graphics inexpensively, and at low power draw, and with reasonable performance. While nothing says that the particular embodiment that Nintendo will use of this particular IP is the optimum compromise at this point in time it is probably decent enough. But the point JohnH raised is an important one, and
particularly so in mobile space. The various reasons desktop graphics had for going down the path it did are not necessarily valid here.