Looking at the latest rumours, I'd say Microsoft and Sony are following two distinct paths:
Orbis is set for higher price/performance and power/performance ratios on a home console. Yes, the Orbis should be some 20% more expensive to build than Durango but it'll also be up to 50% faster. The similar CPU and GPU instruction sets between consoles should make life quite easy for developers making multiplatform titles, and the added graphics power from Orbis should enable better/more shader effects, larger resolutions or better AA.
Durango, to me, seems to be set for being
easily shrinkable to a tablet form factor in 4 years, using 14nm:
- All clocks seem low all-around (1.6GHz CPU, 800MHz GPU) which is a lot more compatible with low-leakage, low-power manufacturing processes.
- An identical CPU+GPU+ embedded RAM SoC should be possible and
smallish at 14nm. Such a chip at 14nm would be about the same size as a current Tegra 3 (assuming the current SoC at 28nm stands at ~300mm^2).
- By then , the 68GB/s main RAM bandwidth should be
easily covered by a quad-channel 32bit LPDDR4 configuration:
Sony would have a really tough time fitting 8GB worth of 190GB/s bandwidth into a low-power format.
But then again, Sony already has its own line of portable consoles, and they are already trying to "unify" the development tools between the portable and the home consoles. Therefore, Sony should be comfortable with keeping two different hardware lines for longer than Microsoft, which only has one at the moment.
So if the rumours are true and this is the XBox "Next" coming in late 2013/ early 2014, my bet is that we'll have a Microsoft "Surface XBox" tablet coming as early as 2016, maybe with a XBox Phone coming some 2 years later.