Next Generation hardware release strategy *spawn

[eastmen]

We're in agreement until this part. See Xbox One X and PS4 Pro, where resolution/framerate clearly isn't at the same level of discussion anymore.

That's simply because the more vocal group is at the disadvantage. At the start of the gen when MS was pushing out exclusive content it was all about 1080p vs 900p but when MS had the power advantage it changed to a conversation about exclusives. I think the bias comes from big sites like neogaf (now resetera) that mold the conversation to their prefrences .

Now talking about new consoles launching. If they both launch within a few months of each other we will again see the performance become a big deal. The ps4 pro and xbox one x were a year apart . If for example in 2020 a ps5 and xbox two launch and the difference in performance is the same as the difference between the pro and x are. Then of course we will hear people talk about it. It will be quite obvious and of course depending on what titles each company has as time goes on the conversation could change again.

I think in 2020 the amount of people who will have 4k tvs will be very large , about the same as the amount that had 1080p tvs back in 2013. So it will become a bigger deal as tvs continue to drop in price

 

[MrFox]

That's simply because the more vocal group is at the disadvantage. At the start of the gen when MS was pushing out exclusive content it was all about 1080p vs 900p but when MS had the power advantage it changed to a conversation about exclusives. I think the bias comes from big sites like neogaf (now resetera) that mold the conversation to their prefrences .

Now talking about new consoles launching. If they both launch within a few months of each other we will again see the performance become a big deal. The ps4 pro and xbox one x were a year apart . If for example in 2020 a ps5 and xbox two launch and the difference in performance is the same as the difference between the pro and x are. Then of course we will hear people talk about it. It will be quite obvious and of course depending on what titles each company has as time goes on the conversation could change again.

Performance was never an absolute factor. Xbox one failed at cost/performance, at earning public trust (drm), and only failed at first party offering later on.

The X performance changed absolutely nothing in sales, which proves it's a pointless metric in isolation.

 

[wco81]

I’d be far more interested in a portable which can deliver X1/PS4 performance undocked and PS4 Pro docked than a PS5 home console which has some x times the performance of the PS4 Pro.

I’d guess the 15-35 demographic would similarly prefer a mobile form factor, even with poor battery life like the Switch.

 

[eastmen]

Performance was never an absolute factor. Xbox one failed at cost/performance, at earning public trust (drm), and only failed at first party offering later on.

The X performance changed absolutely nothing in sales, which proves it's a pointless metric in isolation.

Its hard to change anything 4 years into product cycle. The x was late compared to the pro also

 

[zed]

The X performance changed absolutely nothing in sales, which proves it's a pointless metric in isolation.

Not nothing, I think in NPD xbox has been up year on year each month and I think there was no pricecut (and theres been no games) so it's very likely due to the X

 

[iroboto]

Not nothing, I think in NPD xbox has been up year on year each month and I think there was no pricecut (and theres been no games) so it's very likely due to the X

agreed.

"Nothing" is too diminishing. YoY Xbox is up in the middle of a generation throwing traditional console sales trends out the window. Not to mention ti's YoY.
The product has had it's significant share of NPD analysts who have marked the product as appreciably impactful to the the sales for Microsoft this year to just hand wave it off like it's nothing.

 

[MrFox]

Its hard to change anything 4 years into product cycle. The x was late compared to the pro also

Either they delay and/or raise the price to have a more powerful console... Or they simply don't have a more powerful console.

It will be hard to change anything next gen too. It will be a slower transition, the user base will not get a reset but a continuation of their subs and existing collections with BC. Cross gen games will be aplenty. It won't be a huge jump from mid-gen. For some gamers, their existing collection is now locked behind a DRM wall. The cost of upgrading across to another brand isn't going to be as easy on the wallet as it was last time. All your games would disappear in a puff of smoke if you change brand without keeping your previous console. Can't resell your stack of games at all, and can't resell the console if you want to keep playing them. Staying with the same brand you keep all your games with BC.

The 2013 transition was probably the last full reset and the last time we see a massive shift of userbase. Unless of course one of them have a crazy fuckup at launch. Maybe PS5 force a bundle with VR or something. Or make an ARM abomination. Or someone makes a console without physical media.

 

[goonergaz]

That's simply because the more vocal group is at the disadvantage. At the start of the gen when MS was pushing out exclusive content it was all about 1080p vs 900p but when MS had the power advantage it changed to a conversation about exclusives. I think the bias comes from big sites like neogaf (now resetera) that mold the conversation to their prefrences .

What exclusive content did MS have over Sony? Because this list seems to suggest you have a bad memory;

https://static.gamespot.com/uploads/original/1478/14782364/2366287-7306486380-KVX6j.jpg

Now talking about new consoles launching. If they both launch within a few months of each other we will again see the performance become a big deal. The ps4 pro and xbox one x were a year apart . If for example in 2020 a ps5 and xbox two launch and the difference in performance is the same as the difference between the pro and x are. Then of course we will hear people talk about it. It will be quite obvious and of course depending on what titles each company has as time goes on the conversation could change again.

I think in 2020 the amount of people who will have 4k tvs will be very large , about the same as the amount that had 1080p tvs back in 2013. So it will become a bigger deal as tvs continue to drop in price

I don't know, if released near each other within similar prices the gap won't be too big and then you have to consider diminishing returns and BC. Sure they will talk about it though.

Not nothing, I think in NPD xbox has been up year on year each month and I think there was no pricecut (and theres been no games) so it's very likely due to the X

Don't forget Xbox sales last year would have been held back due to the imminent release of X...

Either they delay and/or raise the price to have a more powerful console... Or they simply don't have a more powerful console.

It will be hard to change anything next gen too. It will be a slower transition, the user base will not get a reset but a continuation of their subs and existing collections with BC. Cross gen games will be aplenty. It won't be a huge jump from mid-gen. For some gamers, their existing collection is now locked behind a DRM wall. The cost of upgrading across to another brand isn't going to be as easy on the wallet as it was last time. All your games would disappear in a puff of smoke if you change brand without keeping your previous console. Can't resell your stack of games at all, and can't resell the console if you want to keep playing them. Staying with the same brand you keep all your games with BC.

The 2013 transition was probably the last full reset and the last time we see a massive shift of userbase. Unless of course one of them have a crazy fuckup at launch. Maybe PS5 force a bundle with VR or something. Or make an ARM abomination. Or someone makes a console without physical media.

This, all those digital purchases...Sony has been great with the digital sales, and PS+ has ramped up the quality of games lately (and now dropping PS3 and Vita games) they're trying to lock you in.

 

[iroboto]

Don't forget Xbox sales last year would have been held back due to the imminent release of X...

I don't think analysts saw that in the data. It would have been called out. Even if it were true, it would have only been for launch/pre-order. Not a whole 12 months of YoY gains.

Not saying you're wrong in it not being a factor, but the correlation may not be as strong as other characteristics.

 

[MrFox]

I'm not saying mid-gen itself did nothing, it gave a boost for both MS and Sony. I'm saying the performance advantage of X didn't change the situation (ps4 outselling xb1 worldwide by over 2:1) because power wasn't the only factor at play. The launch of X didn't show a clear market share improvement worldwide because it was counter balanced by cost, launch date, and a deficit in first party games. Obviously not having X at all would have been a worse situation.

X being a much bigger jump from base sku potentially means a higher upgraders ratio than Pro. To get the whole picture we need the upgraders ratio. We know it's 8% of hardware sales on Sony's side.

I continue to believe MS is working on making their existing base happy rather than trying to reach out for more diverse gamers demograhics. Those buying an X are definitely staying with MS next gen so it helps even if it doesn't show an increase market share right now.

 

[iroboto]

I'm not saying mid-gen itself did nothing, it gave a boost for both MS and Sony. I'm saying the performance advantage of X didn't change the situation (ps4 outselling xb1 worldwide by over 2:1) because power wasn't the only factor at play. The launch of X didn't show a clear market share improvement worldwide because it was counter balanced by cost, launch date, and a deficit in first party games. Obviously not having X at all would have been a worse situation.

X being a much bigger jump from base sku potentially means a higher upgraders ratio than Pro. To get the whole picture we need the upgraders ratio. We know it's 8% of hardware sales on Sony's side.

I continue to believe MS is working on making their existing base happy rather than trying to reach out for more diverse gamers demograhics. Those buying an X are definitely staying with MS next gen so it helps even if it doesn't show an increase market share right now.

;0 yea I was more or less thinking this was the way you were headed. No X would have been a terrible situation, i would also believe that MS would have just given up on Xbox if they didn't release the 1X. The X's real worth is rebuilding their brand/trust with their customers. Showing them what to expect for next gen for those unwilling to pay for 1X today.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What exclusive content did MS have over Sony? Because this list seems to suggest you have a bad memory;

https://static.gamespot.com/uploads/original/1478/14782364/2366287-7306486380-KVX6j.jpg

That's an obviously flawed list. It includes Rime as PS4 exclusive, but it launched in 2017 and is cross-platform (PC). Shadow of the Beast also wasn't an early title, released 2016. Diablo 3 was released on XB1 as well as PS4 but it's marked as a PS4 platform+PC exclusive, not to mention Deep Down hasn't released yet. I guess that's a list of announced games or somesuch. You need to compare games actually released on a timeline to compare launch year libraries, which I haven't found an easy reference for.

 

[BRiT]

Don't get dragged into List Wars!

 

[BRiT]

Closing this thread since people only want List Wars.