I'm pretty sure RT will become a standard feature in one way or another.
'Standard feature' sounds good to me
We have seen things here in this threat that completely destroy AAA graphics just because of better lighting, IMO.
How long it lasts until RT becomes widespread depends mostly on next gen consoles. If they have RT API it will make things easy. If they have RT FF HW as well, even easier. If they have neither, they surely have enough compute power to do it anyways (alternate geometry ->BIG speed up, at the cost of reduced detail which rarely matters)
It seems to come much faster than i thought.
We won't see full path tracing in big games for a while
We may not want this, all we want is quality that matches path tracing.
The Minecraft video is perfect to explain why i say no to 'classic' path tracing. I first got triggered because the guy mentioned 'path tracing with infinite bounces', which is impossible. But after reading his blog i saw he only sticks to the term path tracing because this was his starting point.
What he does is caching irradiance in the voxels. So he no longer needs to trace paths, just rays. At the first hitpoint of each secondary ray he gets the radiance by fetching cached irradiance multiplied by material. No need to trace any further rays for the diffuse term.
Classical path tracing needs to trace paths, and each ray segment adds one bounce. So for 5 bounces (minimum for realistic interiors) you have 5 times the cost than with caching.
So the guy does not do path tracing at all anymore, he implemented the 'radiosity method' instead, which is a bit older than the path tracing algorithm. I do the same. It's faster but requires more memory for the caching.
(I omitted mentioning light sampling here because it's not relevant for the difference.)
Now likely the question is: Why isn't this in use by offline rendering if it's so much faster?
Well first it is used this way, but the algorithm is much more complex because of the caching. Caching requires global parametrization which alone took me more than a year of work. So if you don't mind to spend money on hardware, slow path tracing is easier, more flexible and more accurate.
Why more accurate? Because any caching can be done only at discrete sampling locations.
I do not know if he subdivides the voxels for the caching, but if not the results show that using radiosity method as a fallback at the first bounce already deliver very high quality.
This is something i planned to do in the future, he already does it now and i may use RTX for this instead just for reflections, eventually.
I targeted 10cm samples for current gen consoles, on arbitary geometry so no voxel limitations. Performance is not much worse than traditional deferred shading with shadow maps.
Others work on similar things. A leap will happen with next gen, no matter if RT HW yes or no.
Back to topic RTX, notice that caching also reduces noise for two reasons: 1. The information you get from cached irradiance is complete, not just a zero area ray. 2. You can trace more rays instead a long path.
So a denoiser like in Quake demo has much better input. Likely you can reduce kernel size and capture important high frequency details like contact shadows.
You can also invest more performance in the specular term, which is becoming the main future challenge. Diffuse is more important, but i consider it as solved already.