MS's "rush to next-gen could see the Xbox take a tumble

[GwymWeepa]

Now, waiting until Sony launches...pff they'll be steam rolled day one unless a miracle occurs.

MS builds up its AAAs (+ hype for them), launch just after PS3, then I wonder who will look silly?? Like I said consumers have short memory and are flickle animals... can switch sides if you show them what they want at the same time excite them. Especially when unexpected and you deliever the wow factor, then your the knight in shiny shine armor compared to Sony not having top content - major contrast!!

Then time AAA title releases to defuse Sony's PR and releases, but at this time you've won a major mindshare... well thats theory.

With the ginormous advantage the ps2 has in sales over the Xbox, I doubt many developers will favor the Xbox2 over the PS3 with any possible exclusives (so I imagine PS3 will have the lion's share), and I doubt Sony's launch will disappoint as much as the last go around, because they know competition is on the way. A great launch from MS would be a flash in the pan if it were at the same time as PS3.

 

[London Geezer]

I doubt Sony will disappoint with their next machine as much as they did the last go around, because they know competition is on the way. A great launch from MS would be a flash in the pan if it were at the same time as PS3.

You mean technically? Cause that's the only thing i can think of that can be considered "disappointing" by some people, although i don't really agree with it.

 

[GwymWeepa]

I think MS needs to borrow Sony's methods from the PS1 days, and Sony will need to REALLY work it in the marketing side of things, when they release at a much later date than the competition, in order to keep their mind&marketshare.

One method borrowed, launch earlier than your main competition lol.

 

[GwymWeepa]

I doubt Sony will disappoint with their next machine as much as they did the last go around, because they know competition is on the way. A great launch from MS would be a flash in the pan if it were at the same time as PS3.

You mean technically? Cause that's the only thing i can think of that can be considered "disappointing" by some people, although i don't really agree with it.

Edited the post, realized it sounded off.

 

[StarFox]

GwymWeepa

GayCube, GayStation I've heard the lot of em, people who use names like that regularly aren't mature. They're children in adults bodies

BTW I hope Nintendo do released with PS3 and not with XBox2. I think PS3's hype will kill a console much easier then the reality of the system. Not saying I think PS3 won't be a top console, just Sony consoles seem to take on mythical magical status during the year leading up to release. I think standing in the spotlight of PS3's hype (something XBox2 has to do) is far more dangeruos then being released next to the real machine. I also see Revolution potentially gaining success by association. A lot of people will consider the real next generation to start when PS3 is released. By releasing with PS3 Revolution can be seen as part of the true next generation of consoles.

 

[wazoo]

By releasing with PS3 Revolution can be seen as part of the true next generation of consoles.

Add the fact, that the Gc may sell a bit more than the xbox just because it will be really supported one more year (do you really think to have something to play on xbox at christmas 2k5 ?) and then
1/ nintendo will not be seen as dropping support early on their consoles
2/ XBOX may lose its sales advantages (in the west) to the Gc just because XboxNext is out.

 

[Teasy]

I was wondering about that. With XBoxNext coming out in 2005 and MS wanting to move on to a more profitable generation does this mean MS will stop production of XBox in 2005? I think a lot of people would see that as the XBox merely failing and dying off early. Which is hardly going to fill potential XBoxNext owners with confidence.

 

[GwymWeepa]

GwymWeepa

GayCube, GayStation I've heard the lot of em, people who use names like that regularly aren't mature. They're children in adults bodies

BTW I hope Nintendo do released with PS3 and not with XBox2. I think PS3's hype will kill a console much easier then the reality of the system. Not saying I think PS3 won't be a top console, just Sony consoles seem to take on mythical magical status during the year leading up to release. I think standing in the spotlight of PS3's hype (something XBox2 has to do) is far more dangeruos then being released next to the real machine. I also see Revolution potentially gaining success by association. A lot of people will consider the real next generation to start when PS3 is released. By releasing with PS3 Revolution can be seen as part of the true next generation of consoles.

I wish I could say people have learned their lesson, almost everyone I knew was initially disappointed with the ps2's graphics in relation to the DC, since it was supposed to be so vastly superior. Anyway, if there isn't much difference in graphics from Xbox2 to PS3, Xbox2 will have time alone to forge a reputation, hype won't kill it, MS will not crumble like Sega did, hype will hurt, but if MS can deliver the goods, then by the time ps3 comes out, and they have only a launch line-up to compete with an already large library of next-gen titles, MS is insured a nice solid second place (since all the points I'm making will hurt doubly as bad for Nintendo).

 

[hey69]

another question:

IF xbox2 fails , will there be a xbox3 ?
how much money is MS willing to bleed money in this?

 

[London Geezer]

another question:

IF xbox2 fails , will there be a xbox3 ?
how much money is MS willing to bleed money in this?

It's MS. It won't just "fail". It might not become the market leader, but they are able to be in a safe position. If they're serious about this market, they eventually will have a considerable share of it. It's MS we're talking about. They have enough money to BUY the freaking market. Not that they'd want to.

The Xbox2 already looks very attractive, and i'll probably get one if it turns out good enough. And small enough to go through my front door.

 

[AlNom]

how do they expect people to buy Halo 2 for years?

 

[Jov]

I wish I could say people have learned their lesson, almost everyone I knew was initially disappointed with the ps2's graphics in relation to the DC, since it was supposed to be so vastly superior. Anyway, if there isn't much difference in graphics from Xbox2 to PS3, Xbox2 will have time alone to forge a reputation, hype won't kill it, MS will not crumble like Sega did, hype will hurt, but if MS can deliver the goods, then by the time ps3 comes out, and they have only a launch line-up to compete with an already large library of next-gen titles, MS is insured a nice solid second place (since all the points I'm making will hurt doubly as bad for Nintendo).

Not trying to place too much emphasis on MS's effort this gen, but content wise (AAA) it took MS/Xbox almost 3 years to come out with some games worth playing compared to the consistency of PS2 (~12months) and Cube (6months). Which is why its hard for me to believe MS can pull a high and consistent flow of AAA titles to keep the NeXtBox's steam.

 

[Jov]

how do they expect people to buy Halo 2 for years?

I think they really stepped on their own Halo2's (thus Xbox) foot big time this time.

Halo 2 Xmas 2004, Xenon hype 6-8months b4 Xmas 2005. No BC (my belief), thus eliminating any potential buyer of Xenon who's willing to wait for next-gen AAA titles.

 

[Teasy]

GwymWeepa

Your relying on a lot of ifs in MS's favour aren't you? If XBox2 and PS3 aren't much different graphically. If MS can deliver the goods. If XBox2 can get a strong next gen game lineup before PS3/Revolution are released. You seem to be looking at the very best case scenario for XBox2 ATM. How about you look at the middleground and even the worst case as well.

BTW, just a thought, With XBox2 coming out first it won't just have to live with Sony's PS3 hype, but also with Nintendo's Revolution hype.

I don't know what will happen next gen. What I do believe though, is that releasing early is a big risk. If it pays off MS could do well. But if it goes wrong, XBox2 could end up as a forgoten console once PS3 and Revolution are released.

 

[GwymWeepa]

GwymWeepa

Your relying on a lot of ifs in MS's favour aren't you? If XBox2 and PS3 aren't much different graphically. If MS can deliver the goods. If XBox2 can get a strong next gen game lineup before PS3/Revolution are released. You seem to be looking at the very best case scenario for XBox2 ATM. How about you look at the middleground and even the worst case as well.

BTW, just a thought, With XBox2 coming out first it won't just have to live with Sony's PS3 hype, but also with Nintendo's Revolution hype.

I don't know what will happen next gen. What I do believe though, is that releasing early is a big risk. If it pays off MS could do well. But if it goes wrong, XBox2 could end up as a forgoten console once PS3 and Revolution are released.

Well of course I'm relying on if's, it hasn't launched yet, so I give scenarios where MS can succeed, and I focus on only their success because it will be very difficult to attain and I feel that they have to excecute the launch flawlessly or fail miserably. IMO its either my scenario or an automatic worst case one, abject failure. Opinions may vary, naturally

 

[AlNom]

how do they expect people to buy Halo 2 for years?

I think they really stepped on their own Halo2's (thus Xbox) foot big time this time.

Halo 2 Xmas 2004, Xenon hype 6-8months b4 Xmas 2005. No BC (my belief), thus eliminating any potential buyer of Xenon who's willing to wait for next-gen AAA titles.

This is exactly what I don't understand about a christmas 2005 release. I think they should go for a christmas 2006 release. They must be desperate if they're not expecting any more big sellers during 2005. At least give developers more time to exploit the xenon hardware specs to at least show something fancy at launch (I was thinking of a certain Unreal 3.X or certain Japanese developer with a thing for high quality graphics ).

Halo 2 will be the biggest game out on the xbox ever...this is a system seller, but more of an xbox Live seller IMO....yet they're not giving a whole lot of time to sell it. Halo 1 is still selling decently after 3 years now... do they automagically expect all people who want halo2 to just buy it within 1 month? and... then give up the xbox in favour of Xenon one year later?


Well.... I guess we'll see at E3 next year.



on a side note....anyone prefer a red themed xenon as opposed to the current green one?

Actually, is the green theme a direct result of the nvidia thing or....just a coincidence

 

[function]

This is exactly what I don't understand about a christmas 2005 release. I think they should go for a christmas 2006 release. They must be desperate if they're not expecting any more big sellers during 2005. At least give developers more time to exploit the xenon hardware specs to at least show something fancy at launch (I was thinking of a certain Unreal 3.X or certain Japanese developer with a thing for high quality graphics ).

If they launch Christmas 2006 they'll be going more or less directly up against Sony. What's more, the Xenon tech would be 12 months older when it hit the market, making it much less impressive relative to the time of its arrival - not something you want going up against PS3.

How they fare in the next generation is more important to Microsoft than whether they could get an extra year out of the Xbox. Microsoft's chosen launch isn't caused by desperation over whether they could get or make any big titles for the Xbox in 2005. Xbox games sales in 2005 will probably be the greatest for the platform to date, even with Xenon launching at the end of the year (in one territory).

Halo 2 will be the biggest game out on the xbox ever...this is a system seller, but more of an xbox Live seller IMO....yet they're not giving a whole lot of time to sell it. Halo 1 is still selling decently after 3 years now... do they automagically expect all people who want halo2 to just buy it within 1 month? and... then give up the xbox in favour of Xenon one year later?

Any why would they all have to buy it in one month? They wouldn't. It'll sell well right into 2005, and probably into 2006. An entire userbase of millions doesn't just abandon a system because a new one has come out and sold 200k units to early adpoters. Hell, Xenon won't even be OUT in Europe untill 2006, giving Halo 2 two uninterrupted Christmases over here.

With the drop in Xbox prices that will likely occur when Xenon arrives, sales of the game would probably be driven even higher (what with it being the biggest game on the platform). Would be a great bundle title in 2006 to help shift Xboxes too. I think MS know they can't just abandon this generation in Q4 2005, and that they'll have to carry the cost of the Xbox for at least a little way into Xenon's life.

 

[AlNom]

(btw, those are my words, not Jov's )

Any why would they all have to buy it in one month? They wouldn't. It'll sell well right into 2005, and probably into 2006. An entire userbase of millions doesn't just abandon a system because a new one has come out and sold 200k units to early adpoters. Hell, Xenon won't even be OUT in Europe untill 2006, giving Halo 2 two uninterrupted Christmases over here.

and guess where everyone will be playing instead of buying Xenons (by everyone, I mean xbox fans).

edit: no, not everyone is going to buy Halo 2 within a month, it's going to be spread out. What I'm trying to get across is that MS is trying to shift focus away from xbox1. That's going to fail to a degree if there is nothing bigger than Halo 2 coming out at launch, without BC.

 

[wazoo]

An entire userbase of millions doesn't just abandon a system because a new one has come out and sold 200k units to early adpoters.

you should share your optimism with some old Sega fans on the board. They could talk about the DC, which died overnight.

With the drop in Xbox prices that will likely occur when Xenon arrives, sales of the game would probably be driven even higher (what with it being the biggest game on the platform). Would be a great bundle title in 2006 to help shift Xboxes too. I think MS know they can't just abandon this generation in Q4 2005, and that they'll have to carry the cost of the Xbox for at least a little way into Xenon's life.

IMO; Xbox is in its last year of sustained hits, at least in quality. Next year, E3 will all be about Xenon at MS booth. Only Sony can afford to sustain its previous generation, because of the enormous userbase. Even Nintendo will shift completely from GC to N5 in 2006, because GC userbase will not be enough to stay on its own.

 

[GwymWeepa]

An entire userbase of millions doesn't just abandon a system because a new one has come out and sold 200k units to early adpoters.

you should share your optimism with some old Sega fans on the board. They could talk about the DC, which died overnight.

With the drop in Xbox prices that will likely occur when Xenon arrives, sales of the game would probably be driven even higher (what with it being the biggest game on the platform). Would be a great bundle title in 2006 to help shift Xboxes too. I think MS know they can't just abandon this generation in Q4 2005, and that they'll have to carry the cost of the Xbox for at least a little way into Xenon's life.

IMO; Xbox is in its last year of sustained hits, at least in quality. Next year, E3 will all be about Xenon at MS booth. Only Sony can afford to sustain its previous generation, because of the enormous userbase. Even Nintendo will shift completely from GC to N5 in 2006, because GC userbase will not be enough to stay on its own.

DC wasn't backed up by MS lol.