MS only to ship 4.5-5.5 million by June 2006

[Gerry]

Also the credit card payment system for xbox live acounts was highly unpopular in the eu because we don't have/need CCs in our daily lives as much as the americans do, just a small percentage uses CCs over here and they're mostly adults (like 35>).

Haven't a clue about the rest of Europe but that's not even close to being accurate for the UK. Virtually everybody has a credit card, especially youngsters.

 

[ElStupido]

Haven't a clue about the rest of Europe but that's not even close to being accurate for the UK. Virtually everybody has a credit card, especially youngsters.

yes, I thought so and considered about writing something like: "this may not aply to the UK"
But you've always been different/detached from the continent

 

[Sis]

all of the ppl I know bought the console for its hacked media center capabilities and the ability to play isos from the hd (-> pirating games in the most pleasurable fashion....).
So a large percentage of sales were motivated by better graphics, as you said, and the hackable capabilities.

Anecdotal evidence is always a bit speculative, but you are acknowledging that the only people you know who also own an Xbox are admitted thieves. This is not representative of anything.

In germany the 360's price drops significantly because the sales are down. there were also no shortages in germany because the xboxes were never sold out (similar to japan).

To back up even more anecdotal evidence from you, you link to an image of a site selling a Core unit, which by all accounts aren't selling nearly as well as the the Xbox 360.

All in all it seems like the xbox360 won't be successefull outside north america like it's i predecessor.

And then you close with a sweeping generalization.

Come back with some data that can verify your assertions. Perhaps a news report from Germany about lackluster sales. Last I looked into it, sales were doing fine in Europe. Certainly Ubisoft is very happy...

 

[Acert93]

And people only bought PS2s for the DVD player... Anecdotal points only go so far. I personally don't know a single person who bought the console for anything other than playing games (outside the online hardcore gamers I know). I have a group of friends who all bought Xbox consoles to system link and have Xbox parties. Of course they are the minority, but consoles get different uses among various demographics.

Taking surveys of hardcore/enthusiest/hacker use of hardware as representative if the majority of gamers is silly. The Halo games were system sellers/killer apps and MS has provided a number of titles (and features, like Live) that appeal to certain gamers. Obviously having nice graphics appealed to some, but it seems very few people read magazines and even fewer sit a PS2 and Xbox side by side and do a quality test. Marketing, word of mouth, sales reps, and software tend to push sales beyond the early adopters.

Attributing 20M sales to pirates & people wanting better graphics seems to be far too narrowly focused. Of course as a forum that is defined by enthusiests, techies, and hardcore graphic junkies and therefor gravitating toward such it is not unthinkable that many here would get those very impressions.

 

[ElStupido]

Anecdotal evidence is always a bit speculative, but you are acknowledging that the only people you know who also own an Xbox are admitted thieves. This is not representative of anything.

I'm not even talking about my friends explicitly, my experiences derive from large forums (not warez ones) and minor newspaper/i-net articles (talking about the console's hackable media centre capability). It may sound funny, but I'm more in touch with the market than you are and I don't have reason to lie to you.

To back up even more anecdotal evidence from you, you link to an image of a site selling a Core unit, which by all accounts aren't selling nearly as well as the the Xbox 360.

I didn't just post the pic.
Ok, it's true that cores are selling worse, but it's a freaking 100€ off the price just a few months after the release!
The full version is selling for about 350 (50€ off, as I stated in that post) normaly - there you have your evidence: http://www.geizhals.at/deutschland/a151339.html
loceal stores offer sometimes bigger rebates. ppl have seen premiums selling for around 300€ (the targeted price of the core). But the normal price is about 350 right now. Why bother lower the price when the console is selling like hotcakes?..
The situation is nowhere near as desperate as in japan, but nonetheless it's still bad.

Come back with some data that can verify your assertions. Perhaps a news report from Germany about lackluster sales. Last I looked into it, sales were doing fine in Europe. Certainly Ubisoft is very happy...

1. there is a language barrier between us so even if I would present you some articles you would understand jack + there are no selling charts really (like there are e.g. in japan).
2. if you ask for evidence deliver some yourself.
----------

Taking surveys of hardcore/enthusiest/hacker use of hardware as representative if the majority of gamers is silly. The Halo games were system sellers/killer apps and MS has provided a number of titles (and features, like Live)

Attributing 20M sales to pirates & people wanting better graphics seems to be far too narrowly focused.

You see, I was talking more about the eu.I aknowledge the success in north america and I know how you are nuts about shooters and halo, but it is not the case for the rest of the world.
Ppl don't/didn't take advantage of live (for the reasons I've named already) because there is no such strong cc-culture in the eu (exculding uk).
The tech-freaks you've talked about here were to a large proportion the ones who bought the xbox. The ppl who wanted a cheap entertainement system and also the pirates who wanted an easy way to play their "backups". There were even tv shows where they showed how you flash the bios. Literally every games-shop (we mostly have small ones here, no ebgames-like chains) can provide you with modchips and build it in in a few hours.

 

[Sis]

1. there is a language barrier between us so even if I would present you some articles you would understand jack + there are no selling charts really (like there are e.g. in japan).

Then we're at an impasse. You are free to deliver more unsubstantiated opinions and I'm free to point out that you are making unsubstantiated opinions.

2. if you ask for evidence deliver some yourself.

If I was making an assertion, absolutely. Always ask for the source.

It may sound funny, but I'm more in touch with the market than you are and I don't have reason to lie to you.

Perhaps there is a language barrier between us. I say, "You need to back up your statements with some evidence." You say, "I know more than you, so trust me."

Here's why news reports are better than using a retailer website as proof (which, in fact, appears to be a price aggregator, much like froogle):
Link
(If the link doesn't work, it's basically showing a list of Xbox 360 cores for sale in the US, pulled from Froogle, one of which for about US$265. Should I take this as proof that Xbox 360 is selling poorly in the US?)

 

[PeterT]

Hmm, I believe there is a big difference between the link you provided and the one ElStupido posted. In yours, there is a single, unrated retailer selling a core 360 for slightly below retail prize. And starting with the sixth, the prize is actually above MSRP!

ElStupido's link to Geizhals (By far the largest German-language territory price aggregator) on the other hand shows several highly-rated retailers consistently selling premium Xbox360 packages below retail price, most claiming (And, with their rating, there is little reason to doubt such claims) stock in the hundreds.

 

[Sis]

Hmm, I believe there is a big difference between the link you provided and the one ElStupido posted. In yours, there is a single, unrated retailer selling a core 360 for slightly below retail prize. And starting with the sixth, the prize is actually above MSRP!

ElStupido's link to Geizhals (By far the largest German-language territory price aggregator) on the other hand shows several highly-rated retailers consistently selling premium Xbox360 packages below retail price, most claiming (And, with their rating, there is little reason to doubt such claims) stock in the hundreds.

The link was merely to prove that listing the price of something is only part of the picture and not proof of anything other than the price. You are only arguing the scale of it.

It may indicate a sales trend wherein retailers are selling systems for even less than suggested retail. That's surely one assumption that could be made. So if someone wants to look at those prices and make that assumption, I'm going to ask them to back it up with a little more than pricing as evidence.

 

[L233]

Sis, you're a bit out of line. ElStupido provided ample evience. Saturn in part of the Metro Group which also owns Media Markt and the two taken together are by far the largest European consumer electronics retail chain. The price aggregator, Geizhals, is very well maintained and trustworthy.

It's absolutely no problem to get a Xbox 360 premium for 30-50 € under MSRP here and the prices for the "Core" version appear to be in free fall. The damn things are more or less rotting on the shelves here.

 

[L233]

It may indicate a sales trend wherein retailers are selling systems for even less than suggested retail. That's surely one assumption that could be made.

Um, that's actually the like scenario. Retailers sell for less than the MSRP and guess what... retailers usually have a reason for that and the reason is that it's better to sell something for cheap than not sell it at all.

 

[Sis]

Sis, you're a bit out of line. ElStupido provided ample evience. Saturn in part of the Metro Group which also owns Media Markt and the two taken together are by far the largest European consumer electronics retail chain. The price aggregator, Geizhals, is very well maintained and trustworthy.

It's absolutely no problem to get a Xbox 360 premium for 30-50 € under MSRP here and the prices for the "Core" version appear to be in free fall. The damn things are more or less rotting on the shelves here.

Be a bit fair to me now: I asked for proof since his first link was an image. He then replied with a link to this website. I still think pricing is not a valid indicator of sales, but it's a valid indicator of something, I suppose.

Quick question to those who know: how does that VAT come into play? I don't get why some prices are higher than 399, but if you exclude VAT it comes down. Did the original 399 price include that?

 

[Sis]

Um, that's actually the like scenario. Retailers sell for less than the MSRP and guess what... retailers usually have a reason for that and the reason is that it's better to sell something for cheap than not sell it at all.

So they would rather take a ~20% loss (or perhaps break even) and clear up the shelf space for something else? Is that what's happening? I'm presuming they would only replenish their stock. Because, otherwise then you'd see "out of stock" signs everywhere...

 

[L233]

All prices always have VAT included, it's required by law. The only exception is B2B transfers when VAT is stated seperately.

 

[L233]

So they would rather take a ~20% loss (or perhaps break even) and clear up the shelf space for something else? Is that what's happening? I'm presuming they would only replenish their stock. Because, otherwise then you'd see "out of stock" signs everywhere...

The online retailers seem to have extremely large stocks, which is surprising because they usually try to minimize their inventories. I take that as an indication that they have ordered far too many units in anticipation of a much higher demand. Selling a premium kit for €355 (plus shipping) probably breaks them even.

The €199 thing for the core version is a bit of a abnormality. This isn't online it's an actual chain of retail stroes but the offer seems to be limited to the Stuttgart area. This may seem confusing at the first glance, unless you know how these retail chains operate.

Every store has a monthly marketing budget at their free disposal and they often use it to sell some some items at a loss. They susidize the prices, so to say. There are usually two kinds of products that they like to subsidize. Either brand new high profile stuff (I picked up Warcraft 3 + a free DVD for €35 on release day there...) or products that don't move all that well in order to reduce stock.

Now, the problem is that these offers often have a snowball effect. If they are satisfied with the succes, other stores of that chain in different cities will likely follow the lead and once that happens everyone is forced to adapt because Saturn/Media Markt utterly dominates the market for consumer electornics in Germany and some other European countries.

 

[expletive]

Its all fairly pointless though isnt it? At the end of June, MS will have met 5 million or not, then we can all sit around and judge sales based on that. While i understand the potential validity and implications, this interim exchanging of pricing links seems to be getting nowhere.

FWIW, i was in a BB and a CC in NJ this evening. CC had no units of either SKU. BB had 3 cores and no premiums (they did have the HD accessory as well).

 

[PeterT]

It is pointless when looking at total sales numbers only, but figuring out the distribution among the 3 markets can be interesting as well. Imagine, for example, that the next-gen market looks like this in mid-2008 (numbers taken out of thin air):

US:
60% XB360 30% PS3 10% Wii
EU:
60% PS3 20% Wii 20% XB360
JP:
50% Wii 45% PS3 5% XB360
(just imagine that the Wii does a DS in Japan)

Would make for a though situation for 3rd parties, wouldn't it?
I'm not saying that there will be a geographical devide nearly as strong as in that example, but it may just happen that everyone "wins" this console war - somewhere.

 

[expletive]

It is pointless when looking at total sales numbers only, but figuring out the distribution among the 3 markets can be interesting as well. Imagine, for example, that the next-gen market looks like this in mid-2008 (numbers taken out of thin air):

US:
60% XB360 30% PS3 10% Wii
EU:
60% PS3 20% Wii 20% XB360
JP:
50% Wii 45% PS3 5% XB360
(just imagine that the Wii does a DS in Japan)

Would make for a though situation for 3rd parties, wouldn't it?
I'm not saying that there will be a geographical devide nearly as strong as in that example, but it may just happen that everyone "wins" this console war - somewhere.

Definitely possible and i think exactly what MS was trying to avoid by launching first. Imo, MS felt that by launching first they would have an advantage for all developer decisions leading up to *at least* mid-2007. If you look at the likely scenario, the 360 will be at around 10-12 million by Jan 2007 with the PS3 and Wii (not sure i'll ever get used to that) being roughly around 2 million each. Plus they know theyve got Halo, with the movie tie-in, coming Q2 2007 which is another big bump in hardware sales.

If things play out this way, and at this point it seems likely, publishers are making development decisions in a console race where the 360 could have 2-4x the amount of units sold as the other 2 through the end of 2007. Thats a fairly compelling platform, especially if you add on what appears to be superior development tools and easy cross-platform development with Vista via XNA.

All that said, i think MS is hoping that this installed base momentum will get them the top software, which will, in turn, breed more hardware sales on a console that was designed to be agressively priced sooner rather than later. I'm fairly confident this is the crux of their strategy, it'll be interesting to see if it actually works.

 

[mckmas8808]

Definitely possible and i think exactly what MS was trying to avoid by launching first. Imo, MS felt that by launching first they would have an advantage for all developer decisions leading up to *at least* mid-2007. If you look at the likely scenario, the 360 will be at around 10-12 million by Jan 2007 with the PS3 and Wii (not sure i'll ever get used to that) being roughly around 2 million each. Plus they know theyve got Halo, with the movie tie-in, coming Q2 2007 which is another big bump in hardware sales.

If things play out this way, and at this point it seems likely, publishers are making development decisions in a console race where the 360 could have 2-4x the amount of units sold as the other 2 through the end of 2007. Thats a fairly compelling platform, especially if you add on what appears to be superior development tools and easy cross-platform development with Vista via XNA.

All that said, i think MS is hoping that this installed base momentum will get them the top software, which will, in turn, breed more hardware sales on a console that was designed to be agressively priced sooner rather than later. I'm fairly confident this is the crux of their strategy, it'll be interesting to see if it actually works.

Well we do know that by March 2007 Sony will have 6 million PS3s out there so it does close that 10 million "world-wide" head start pretty fast.

 

[expletive]

Well we do know that by March 2007 Sony will have 6 million PS3s out there so it does close that 10 million "world-wide" head start pretty fast.

Agreed.

Though you ahve to admit 6 million is probably a 'best-case' estimate from Sony at this point, they havent produced a single PS3 yet, much less 6 million of them.

Also, signs are pointing to Halo 3 being released around March 07. So while 10-12 million sold may be the total by January 1, 07, by the end of April 2007 that number could be quite a bit larger (due to Halo's release.)

 

[scooby_dooby]

Well we do know that by March 2007 Sony will have 6 million PS3s out there so it does close that 10 million "world-wide" head start pretty fast.

Hold on there cowboy. How many companies have ever had 6 million consoles out within 5 months? None? All we know is sony says there will be 6 million. It's gonna be quite the feat to pull off, so we'll see.