10million as long as the production is there shouldn't be an issue. I think the main reason they want to hit 10million is so they can then concentrate on getting people shifted to Vista during 07. I wouldn't be too surprised if Vista was pushed back so it would not compete against the 360 during the critical holiday season.
MS only to ship 4.5-5.5 million by June 2006
- Thread starter dukmahsik
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Powderkeg said:
I thought Moore said 10M before the PS3 launched, which would put this at about the middle of November and presumably the large Thanksgiving weekend sales.
Not that it matters in that sales numbers for November probably wont be available until mid/late December at the earliest. If MS does not hit their numbers they could just wait until January to announce fiscal 2006 numbers anyhow.
expletive said:
No.
Historically speaking, over half of all consoles sold during the year are sold in the holiday season. During the Xbox days a normal month would see about 150k units sold, but a November or December would be close to the Million mark, if not over.
It was normal for the Xbox to sell 2+ million systems between October and December in the US, and that was often more than the rest of the year combined.
Not to mention that it should be totally expected that they would sell half the number of systems of a 12 month supply during a 6 month time frame. Even if you just took the total number of systems sold and divided them equally across each month I would still expect half the systems to be sold in half the year.
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expletive said:
Different market situations, different sales constraints and momentum? Your analogy above is not perfect because while MS is now facing 2 new competitors, last time Sony had a head start and the 360 co-launched with the GCN. Sony had an edge in software and even price and the GCN came in lower priced. MS also did not have a lot of game support. This time around they have a game library head start, a lower price than Sony, and Wii is not competing necessarily for the same consumers. Last time the Xbox did not have online, while this time Live co-launched. Production issues are also different, with the 360 having far more production shortages + higher demand than the Xbox1 had. Even if Sony does hit their 6M target, they are going to generate a huge stir and shortages which may also steer people to the 360/Wii.
As for games, the 360 has more than just Gears of War, Splinter Cell, and Madden in 2006. For big titles you have Forza 2, Mass Effect, Lost Planet, and Viva Pinata. Those titles are surrounded by a pretty solid supporting cast as well. Now and through Summer there is Prey, Chromehounds, MotoGP, Table Tennis, Battle for Middle Earth 2, Saint's Row, Test Drive, among others. This fall should see FEAR, Crackdown, maybe Too Human on top of the 3rd party titles like Rainbox Six: Vegas and so forth. Of course you need to consider the sales impact of "coming soon" titles like Bioshock, Alan Wake, Halo 3, Fable 2 and 3rd party software like Medal of Honor, Brother in Arms, the Darkness. Sure someone may pick up a 360 for Gears in anticipation of Brother in Arms in the Winter and Halo 3 in the Spring. And we cannot discount the back library which is currently keeping sales pretty brisk.
For people who have wanted a 360, but could not get one due to shortages, it is not just Gears of War or Splinter Cell that will motivate a sale in any given month, but also having some really good next gen games on the market as well. Oblivion, GRAW, CoD2, and PGR3 have all sold well and been critically acclaimed. I have not chosen/bought a next gen system yet, but out of all the games I have seen coming this year and already out, PGR3 is still at the very top of my "wish" list. If I could get it on the PC I would in a heartbeat.
360 sales are more complex than comparing Xbox1 sales and what games will be available what month. For all we know MS may hit a "wall" with the enthusiest market at some point and we may discover that casual gamers are not impressed with the lineup and price. Or we may continue to see brisk sales that totally tap the supply well into 2007.
I think MS's numbers are pretty aggressive. Summer is typically pretty slow, and they have 2 months to sell 2M consoles. Demand is high, but that is a lot of units and will be relying on momentum, future game previews, and the current library to push that. I am not sure anyone knows how many units MS would sell if they totally saturated the market right now, but 2M sounds like a lot for such a slow time of year. I guess they are banking on people to have kept an interest.
mckmas8808
Legend
Acert93 said:
The fact that they can't bank on Japan at all is really hurting MS. I can't really see them selling 2M consoles worldwide in 2 months.
Acert93 said:
exactly software and features are far and away more solid/attractive for MS this gen compared to Xbox1.
As for the casual market, they seem to be making some inroads with XBLA content that will attract a LOT more people than the hard core. (as was their plan all along)
mckmas8808
Legend
Tap In said:
Really?
I have a feeling I know what they meant when they probably said that. I mean seriously only selling about 105,000 or so to date is just not cool. When comparing the PS3 and 360's future worldwide sales Japan alone could give Sony that obvious push ahead quickly.mckmas8808 said:Really?
They will let Wii deal with Japan. The japanese are very loyal to their own, always have been. MS and any other US company simply has to deal with that fact. The rest of Asia is not as "loyal."
mckmas8808
Legend
RobertR1 said:
The Japanese love the ipod though, so that just ruins your whole theory.
these are good sales. how do they rank up against MS's predictions?
about Japs being 'loyal'; I don't agree at all. they are probably the most people eager to try out new tech in the world. the reasons why any 'foriegn' product fails there is that it doesn't cater to Japs liking. take Xbox for example; it does everything ,except Live, wrong in the general Japanese view. and people are surprised Halos came and went in Japan without much notice, and how come those quirky games sell so much over there.
it is a totally different market from the West with its own unique marketing and spec needs.
about Japs being 'loyal'; I don't agree at all. they are probably the most people eager to try out new tech in the world. the reasons why any 'foriegn' product fails there is that it doesn't cater to Japs liking. take Xbox for example; it does everything ,except Live, wrong in the general Japanese view. and people are surprised Halos came and went in Japan without much notice, and how come those quirky games sell so much over there.
it is a totally different market from the West with its own unique marketing and spec needs.
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mckmas8808
Legend
pipo said:
So when does Gamestop's fourth quarter end?
mckmas8808 said:
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=-1]What is GameStop's fiscal year?
[/SIZE][/FONT] [FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=-1]GameStop's fiscal year is composed of 52 or 53 weeks ending on the Saturday closest to January 31. GameStop's fiscal 2006 will end on February 3, 2007.[/SIZE][/FONT]
mckmas8808
Legend
NucNavST3 said:
And they expect 2 million USA PS3s to sell between 11/17/06 - 02/03/07? I wonder if they are basing that off of Sony's announcement?
