MS only to ship 4.5-5.5 million by June 2006

[Bad_Boy]

What happens if microsoft doesnt sell 10 million before the others launch? It's not like we can declare them loosers of the "console war" by then, they still will be ahead even if sony gets 6 million out by march. I say give it atleast 2 holiday seasons of having all 3 consoles out like peter moore said before we can declare anything. January 1st 2008 I think he mentioned on G4.

I think this is more of if a company can keep its word on shipping 10 million, 6 million, or x million before x day. These are pretty relatively small numbers if you think about the big picture. (100 million for ps2 for example)

I kinda think this "X_million by this day/season" is kinda hyped up a bit.

 

[Sis]

What happens if microsoft doesnt sell 10 million before the others launch? It's not like we can declare them loosers of the "console war" by then, they still will be ahead even if sony gets 6 million out by march. I say give it atleast 2 holiday seasons of having all 3 consoles out like peter moore said before we can declare anything. January 1st 2008 I think he mentioned on G4.

I think this is more of if a company can keep its word on shipping 10 million, 6 million, or x million before x day. These are pretty relatively small numbers if you think about the big picture. (100 million for ps2 for example)

I kinda think this "X_million by this day/season" is kinda hyped up a bit.

No, you have it right: it's about hitting targets. If they miss their targets, it doesn't bode well, plain and simple. 10 million by end of 06 is just a nice round figure, which humans love. That's why it gets the attention.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

According to Teamxbox X360 sold 295k in US on april, PS2 sold 205k.

http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/10976/Xbox-360-Outsells-the-PS2-in-April/

 

[mckmas8808]

According to Teamxbox X360 sold 295k in US on april, PS2 sold 205k.

http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/10976/Xbox-360-Outsells-the-PS2-in-April/

Yes that is correct. To the people that have a 360, are these good numbers to you?

 

[expletive]

Yes that is correct. To the people that have a 360, are these good numbers to you?

Well it really depends if they were still somewhat supply constrained, even for a portion of the month.

If theyre still selling 'every unit they can make' well then thats good for them. However, 300K on its own isnt overwhelming and I think they may need more than that to hit the self-imposed 10 million target...

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Yes that is correct. To the people that have a 360, are these good numbers to you?

Well for April I think it's atleast ok...

 

[mckmas8808]

Well it really depends if they were still somewhat supply constrained, even for a portion of the month.

If theyre still selling 'every unit they can make' well then thats good for them. 300K on its own isnt overwhelming and I think they may need more than that to hit their 10 million target...

Yeah I was asking from the stand point of getting to 10 million. Do you really believe they will reach 10 million by the end of this calendar year?

 

[Tap In]

Isn't that kinda low for the targets? ...

Targets are based on SHIPPED numbers

these are sold through retailer numbers (harder to quantify) and AFAIK, they do not include all retailers (Wal-Mart?)

oh and that was a U.S. number.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Yeah I was asking from the stand point of getting to 10 million. Do you really believe they will reach 10 million by the end of this calendar year?

Well it's hard to say, November and December will probably be very good months saleswise, if there is a pricecut for christmas, it'll help, I'm not sure if it's needed though as the PS3 is going to be more expensive anyways. 10mil is a hard goal to make anyways, but I think it might be possible.

 

[expletive]

Yeah I was asking from the stand point of getting to 10 million. Do you really believe they will reach 10 million by the end of this calendar year?

If they hit 5.5 million by end of June that gives them 5 months to sell 4.5 million units, 900K per month till end november. I guess if Gears launches in October? I guess looking at the launch portfolio would help to see if theyve got enough to drive demand during that time.

Off the top of my head i know Gears and Splinter Cell are certainly 2 where you can chalk up those months to adequate demand, not sure about the rest...

EDIT: and the new Madden 2007, so thats 3 of the 5 months accounted for...

 

[Tap In]

Yes that is correct. To the people that have a 360, are these good numbers to you?

well first of all i have no doubt that Xbox is going to take a greater share of the market this generation compared to last and they may actually win in NA. So supply constrained as they were in the first 4 months and seeing as they have only had 1 month of product on the shelf, I'd think MS would be happy with their sales position.

It's going into the slowest part of the year and with some big fall releases and then a Holiday with a more expensive, (supply limited) PS3 coming out, I predict that they will hit (or exceed) their targets for this year.

By the way, I'm reading Xbox360 Uncloaked and MS target for this generation is 40% share.

 

[Acert93]

MS is still launching in various parts of the world, although these supply issues are kind of pathetic. Just a couple weeks ago my local Walmart got 8 units and the 4 Premiums and 3 Cores were gone in less than 24 hours and the last Cores was gone within 3 days.

I know they have stated production is increasing, but if they want to hit 5M by June 31st (less than 45 days away) and Between July 1st and November 16th (4.5 months) sell another 5M they need to get the show on the road, especially since Sony is talking about getting 6M units out in a 4 month window (compared to MS's goal of 5M by June 31st, which is 7.5 months). Demand is high, but launch early does no good if you don't meet demand. I guess the only silver lining for MS is Sony will be production restrained as well it seems and will be going for a larger worldwide launch.

 

[Tap In]

good point Acert93

any sales success that MS wil have is based on them having all 3 production facilities ramped up and putting out 1-1.5 mil per month (as is their goal) AND getting them on the correct shelves.

They missed a golden opportunity in the first 4 months of not having enough supply but with PS3 not coming until almost the holiday and with a WW launch as well, MS will be in a position to scoop up lots of customers IF the product is there.

 

[goonergaz]

I've been recently thinking about this, I think X360 is selling around the same rate as XB and as such I expect about 8m units by the end of the year (that's this FY - so 9.5m total).

there are a couple of 'howevers' tho...

firstly XB didn't have to deal with the launch of 2 new consoles and secondly XB didn't launch worldwide...is is it 'truely' selling as well/slightly better?

tap-in, I think 40% is optomistic, I can see this gen going roughly 33% each - it all depends how Wii goes down...oh dear, did I just say that!?

 

[wco81]

By the way, I'm reading Xbox360 Uncloaked and MS target for this generation is 40% share.

I think they're publicly more ambitious than that. They're talking about winning outright and believe the first to 10 million will have unstoppable momentum for having the biggest share.

Then again, maybe 40% will be the biggest share if Nintendo carves well over 20%.

 

[EricVonZipper]

I'm curious to see the May and June numbers, wonder if the PS3 pricing will contribute to a 360 sales increase. I know my friend was on the 'fence', but is thru waiting and will get a 360.

 

[Tap In]

I've been recently thinking about this, I think X360 is selling around the same rate as XB and as such I expect about 8m units by the end of the year (thos this FY - so 9.5m total).

there are a couple of 'howevers' tho...

firstly XB didn't have to deal with the launch of 2 new consoles and secondly XB didn't launch worldwide...is is it 'truely' selling as well/slightly better?

You are correct but the difference is that there is no telling how much they lost with one of the worst supply chains ever for the 1st 4 months with 360. I think the bump to almost 300,000 (sold, not shipped) in April is a good indication that there was more demand thatn supply prior to to April.

tap-in, I think 40% is optomistic, I can see this gen going roughly 33% each - it all depends how Wii goes down...oh dear, did I just say that!?

oh that certainly has changed after E3 and the dynamic of Sony's prices (and removal of features) and the excitement of the Wii.

the 40% was targeted in 2002 in their long range plan.

I'm guessing that they feel to be in a pretty strong position now after E3 but Wii may get a bigger share than anyone anticipated,

 

[Tap In]

Then again, maybe 40% will be the biggest share if Nintendo carves well over 20%.

I agree

28-32-40 (plug brand names in randomly ) would not be out of the question world wide.

Japan may be in play big time between Sony/Nintendo this gen. NA and europe will most likely come down to Sony/MS.

 

[expletive]

I know they have stated production is increasing, but if they want to hit 5M by June 31st (less than 45 days away) and Between July 1st and November 16th (4.5 months) sell another 5M they need to get the show on the road, especially since Sony is talking about getting 6M units out in a 4 month window (compared to MS's goal of 5M by June 31st, which is 7.5 months).

I'd take Sony's estimated production numbers with a rather large grain of salt. Remember, it is in their best interest to minimize the perception of a holiday PS3 shortage.

 

[Powderkeg]

Yeah I was asking from the stand point of getting to 10 million. Do you really believe they will reach 10 million by the end of this calendar year?

10 million by years end should be easy.

They were at 3.3 million before the end of April. 5-5.5 million by end of June, that's 2 million in 2 months during the slowest time of the year for console sales.

During the holidays MS should have no problem selling around 400-500k in October, and 1-1.5 million per month for November and December in the US alone. This would be inline with sales during the best year of the original Xbox.

Taking the conservative side, figure 2.4 million from the US during the holidays, added to 5 million by end of June. 7.4 million.


That would leave MS with only having to sell 2.6 million systems in Europe and Asia combined over the 6 month period folowing June, plus July through September US sales. 450k per month average world-wide sales would be more than enough to hit 10 million.

I don't see any reason why they couldn't hit those marks, do you?