My interpretation of March 2021 post zenimax hearing, the public statement he gives is that pretty much all the titles are going exclusive with some exceptions.That comment is satisfied by the release of Deathloop and Ghostwire:Tokyo. I'm looking more at his comments to the EU during the Zenimax hearing, Jan 2021, where 'Microsoft stated", although I don't know who that MS was:
This is the real sticking point. MS said to the regulators that other consoles would get future games on a case-by-case basis, implying a proportion of future games would release, expected to relate to that IP's demand and sentiment. It's after this we hear Phil said something along the lines of all future Zenimax games would be XB exclusive, no case-by-case basis applied, but we don't know exactly the words or context.
If in 20 years' time zero Bethesda games come to PS, would that still be appropriate for what was said at the EU hearing? Is "none of those games seemed appropriate to port on a case-by-case basis" going to be a legitimate justification for the lack of content that was implied? And the relevance here is what can MS infer they'll do in the ABK hearing and then change their mind on? We don't have a crystal ball and can only guess by a very short precedent with Zenimax. If either Indiana Jones or ES came to PS5, there'd be no problems, but if neither do, too late to test against the ABK hearings, it's a bit sus!
The EU cleared zenimax under the assumption all titles would go exclusive, they didn’t believe MS anyway when they said it, they just didn’t see this vertical merger as a threat to the market. The only thing Phil is doing is managing the video gamers who will hate Xbox even more for declaring it so.
EU commentary here
The report had concluded from the EU agency: "Even if the combined entity was to engage in a (total or partial) input foreclosure strategy, the Commission considers that such a strategy would not have a material impact on competition in the EEA. Rival consoles would not be deprived of an essential input, and could still rely on a large array of valuable video game content to attract players."
The Nov 2021, wow moment, sounds like Phil was now committed to tossing exceptions out. So Indiana Jones may have been an exception that went exclusive (contractual obligation terminated or rerouted) I do not know.
i recognize that Phil is working very hard to make everything exclusive, I just think he will find that he cannot. That’s his predicament. They have greater aspirations than this, and it would be to their benefit to show regulators (at the very least) that they can hold their word (even more so now that the spotlight is on them).
I anticipate that there will be a title that would fit the criteria for MP release within the next decade and they will use that as their sacrificial offering. GaaS titles are just too reliant on larger populations to keep them alive. And some titles are better as a multiplatform because of their significance on culture like Doom.