In a functioning job market, there's inevitable friction that makes it impossible for any company to have exactly the right staffing at any moment in time. Finding the right person can take an unpredictable amount of time, and when the economy is humming along, people have a habit of switching. That's especially true if these employees are underpaid—i.e. the better a deal a company is getting on someone right now, the more likely that person is to leave.[1] So the equilibrium is to slightly overhire.
That friction also means that a healthy job market for workers is a nerve-wracking one for employers: wages are rising, and companies have to make hiring decisions in light of 1) the probability that many offers will get topped, and 2) the probability that some of their existing team will depart. Fortunately, this can be sustainable for a while when the perceived ceiling on employee productivity keeps rising.
But this dynamic still relies on assumptions about the real world, and those assumptions won't always be borne out. Companies compete with peers on product quality and pricing, but they compete for talent and capital by being prudently optimistic. Whenever a big company does layoffs, it's common for people to say "Couldn't they have grown a little more slowly and never needed to do that?" And the answer is that there almost certainly was a competitor that grew more slowly and prudently, and that preference for stability over growth is why you haven't heard of them. In a space where every company is prudent and doesn't want to risk a layoff, the first company to defect and go for growth will swallow the entire market.
Outside of the industry cycle, there's a macro cycle, and that one is even harder for companies to avoid.
When a company's revenue dashboard starts to persistently show that the numbers aren't going according to plan, decisions are required.
[/QOUTE]