Merrill Lynch's Next-Gen console prediction

[mckmas8808]

On the side and on other points:

I do think that a lot of us - including myself - need to reevaluate our cockiness back in the day when we were self-assured of UMD's 'inevitible failure.' We were just plain wrong - as were many analysts. It has certainly not turned out that way, and I give Sony the benefit of the doubt now in their ability to push early adopter blu-ray content as well. Did you guys read about how Warner Monday announced UMD support? I mean - it's seriously every studio but Dreamworks now.

Well, well, well I guess I can stick my chest out and claim that I'm winning that arguement so far. I went out on a limb and said that not only will UMDs not be DOA, but that they could actually sell too. Yep, I would like to have the benefit of the doubt here too.

 

[jvd]

They made 73 million dollars in the second quarter alone. This was with the marketing launch of the PSP and R&D spending on the PS3. Even though the PS2 sold 2 million units more than last year and software was up in two territories it was the sales of the PSP hardware and software that helped give Sony an operating income of 73 million dollars.

Link http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/051027/099348.html

once again this doesn't mean they are making moeny from the psp. The state that ps2 sold 2 million more unist above last year and software sales was up in two territories .

It merely states that the psp helped. What it helped with is anyones guess. It could have made 1$ and thus be correct. They don't give any data for which portion of that 73 million the psp "helped" with .


As for ps3 r$d costs this has been spread out over many years including loans for other things they have taken out .

 

[expletive]

bigger cpu
two banks of ram
wifi liscense fee
bluetooth liscense fee
bluray
Sd slot
more expensive pcb
two hdmi out ports

Anything else i'm missing ?

Does sony own the RSX silicon or are they buying chips from nvidia?

 

[jvd]

Well, well, well I guess I can stick my chest out and claim that I'm winning that arguement so far. I went out on a limb and said that not only will UMDs not be DOA, but that they could actually sell too. Yep, I would like to have the benefit of the doubt here too.

both of you are basing this on short term sucess . It has been 1 year about since umds outing. It has done well but its long term sucess is in question esp with the advert of video ipods and even sony offering downloadable videos themselves .

Pet rocks were a success and then a year later they were gone .

Long term is the only sucess that matters .

 

[jvd]

Does sony own the RSX silicon or are they buying chips from nvidia?

Sony is making the rsx and has to pay a royality fee .

But i'm showing what sony has over ms in terms of cost. Ms also has to pay a royality to ati

 

[expletive]

Sony is making the rsx and has to pay a royality fee .

But i'm showing what sony has over ms in terms of cost. Ms also has to pay a royality to ati

Are you sure MS pays royalties to ATI?

Anyway my point was that if Sony was buying the chips they would be in a similar situation as MS was with XBOX 1 where it was difficult to lower costs.

 

[jvd]

Are you sure MS pays royalties to ATI?

Anyway my point was that if Sony was buying the chips they would be in a similar situation as MS was with XBOX 1 where it was difficult to lower costs.

Yea , otherwise whats in it for ati ? Sony is making the chips at some fab .

 

[mckmas8808]

This Lynch report fits with all we've heard even from sony themselves (that it will be expensive) . I don't really see the problem .

You are missing the fact that Sony execs also said that the PS3 could be priced the same as the PS2 too. Some of you guys are so funny in the way you view Sony related information. Read.

In the update, the blogger writes, "In the latest Famitsu, a very important person mentioned that the PS3 price would not be over 40000yen". This information correlates to a previous comment from a Sony rep a few months back, who mentioned the same price. With any luck this will turn out to be the case, and Japan will see the PS3 in the spring of 2006 for slightly under $400. One thing to note though is that the PS2 was also released in Japan for a bit under 40000 yen, but when it came to the U.S. it was sold for a hundred dollars less at $299. It's not out of the question that same sort of pricing scheme will be employed this time as well.

Link http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3145024

Again it was said back in May that the PS3 could be launched at the PS2 launch price.

Honda: Though it must be difficult for you to tell the very price of PS3, will PS3 take the same depreciation model as the one of PS2? For instance PSP was cheaper than most expected.

Kutaragi: PSP was evaluated by many people as inexpensive, but still 24,900 Yen. Its cost model can have a feasible cash flow by the higher in-house development ratio and other factors.

The same thing can be said for PS3, but a far more number of PS3 will be sold if you compare it with PSP. But as I mentioned before PS3 has no consciousness as a game console. It was our goal that we wanted to sell a computer for entertainment with added values.

Probably in this generation, PS3, will be able to be sold even for 200,000 Yen for those who want the power. Those who want it won't judge by the price. Of course if it's the case not many people can enjoy it, but some people may think it's expensive if they think game consoles as the standard. However, PS3 is built as a product overwhelmingly wanted. Car and TV are like that. You can't help wanting it. Even we, who developed it, want it. We created such a product.

(Honda's comment: To complement Kutaragi, apparently SCE told partners that PS3 would be sold under 40,000 Yen. So far PS1 & PS2 were launched at 39,800 Yen so they are not very expensive. But, as PSP was launched at the "final price" that contains no further pricecut, PS3 may launch at 39,800 as the final price without pricecut in the near future. Anyway PS3 will be launched at a price well in the range of a common sense)

Link http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=20062&highlight=Interview

It took me one damn hour to find this information so you guys better respect it.

 

[jvd]

You are missing the fact that Sony execs also said that the PS3 could be priced the same as the PS2 too. Some of you guys are so funny in the way you view Sony related information. Read.

I think its you thats missing the fact. What the ps3 is priced at and what the ps3 costs to make are not the same thing . No matter how much u want to believe otherwise .

Then you go on to pass up the quote that ml has in thier report with sony talking about not wanting to take a losso n the console .

It is you who that is missing the facts .

1) Sony said the ps3 will be expensive
2) this is ml's busniess to do , they are privy to info we do not have .
3)This is not the only anyalst to comment on it being expensive
4) cost to produce and cost to consumer are two diffrent things

Link http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3145024

Again it was said back in May that the PS3 could be launched at the PS2 launch price.

Once again this is by an unamed source at sony. We have kk talking about how it will be expensive and how customers wont midn working extra to buy one .

Or did u forget about that quote ?

Probably in this generation, PS3, will be able to be sold even for 200,000 Yen for those who want the power. Those who want it won't judge by the price. Of course if it's the case not many people can enjoy it, but some people may think it's expensive if they think game consoles as the standard. However, PS3 is built as a product overwhelmingly wanted. Car and TV are like that. You can't help wanting it. Even we, who developed it, want it. We created such a product.

Right here he is talking about it being expensive to some consumers. But once again he talks nothing about hte price to produce the system .



You have yet to show me any reason why the ml numbers of ps3 cost are wrong . All you show me is that sony may be willing to take a loss on the system .

Once again cost to make and cost to consumer are not the same thing

 

[mckmas8808]

I think its you thats missing the fact. What the ps3 is priced at and what the ps3 costs to make are not the same thing . No matter how much u want to believe otherwise .

Then you go on to pass up the quote that ml has in thier report with sony talking about not wanting to take a losso n the console .

It is you who that is missing the facts .

1) Sony said the ps3 will be expensive
2) this is ml's busniess to do , they are privy to info we do not have .
3)This is not the only anyalst to comment on it being expensive
4) cost to produce and cost to consumer are two diffrent things

Once again this is by an unamed source at sony. We have kk talking about how it will be expensive and how customers wont midn working extra to buy one .

Or did u forget about that quote ?

Right here he is talking about it being expensive to some consumers. But once again he talks nothing about hte price to produce the system .



You have yet to show me any reason why the ml numbers of ps3 cost are wrong . All you show me is that sony may be willing to take a loss on the system .

Once again cost to make and cost to consumer are not the same thing

Damnit what is wrong with you. I'm NOT I repeat I' NOT saying that I'm 100% sure that it will be priced at the same price as the PS2. My point is at least take more than more quote into question. Why is it that when you read on two occasions that it will be around or lower than 40,000 yen you refuse to take that into mind?

It could be $300 or it could be $500 hell I don't know at all. I can't tell the future. All I'm saying is at least take both sides of the issue not this one sided stuff. I will post it again so people that weren't here around May can see this.

(Honda's comment: To complement Kutaragi, apparently SCE told partners that PS3 would be sold under 40,000 Yen. So far PS1 & PS2 were launched at 39,800 Yen so they are not very expensive. But, as PSP was launched at the "final price" that contains no further pricecut, PS3 may launch at 39,800 as the final price without pricecut in the near future. Anyway PS3 will be launched at a price well in the range of a common sense)

"In the latest Famitsu, a very important person mentioned that the PS3 price would not be over 40000yen". This information correlates to a previous comment from a Sony rep a few months back, who mentioned the same price.

This is both sides of the story. Pick which side to be on just stop saying that this side is impossible.

 

[Carl B]

Are you sure MS pays royalties to ATI?

Anyway my point was that if Sony was buying the chips they would be in a similar situation as MS was with XBOX 1 where it was difficult to lower costs.

Yeah, MS is going to be paying royalties to ATI and fabbing the chip at whatever fab they contract with - to begin TSMC for the main core and NEC for the daughter die, and Sony is going to be fabbing the RSX at their own fabs and paying NVidia a royalty fee as well. Both royalty fees should be in the neigborhood of $5, so the majority of the costs should be fabbing related.

 

[jvd]

Damnit what is wrong with you. I'm NOT I repeat I' NOT saying that I'm 100% sure that it will be priced at the same price as the PS2. My point is at least take more than more quote into question. Why is it that when you read on two occasions that it will be around or lower than 40,000 yen you refuse to take that into mind?

It could be $300 or it could be $500 hell I don't know at all. I can't tell the future. All I'm saying is at least take both sides of the issue not this one sided stuff. I will post it again so people that weren't here around May can see this.

I am taking ml's that does this for a living . They once again have more information than you have .

They have acess to things you do not have .

This is both sides of the story. Pick which side to be on just stop saying that this side is impossible.

Apparently and unknown sources isn't something i'm going to take over merrill fricken lynch .

Esp not when we get things from kk talking about how people are going to have to work more hours to afford the system and every other analyst and others in the industry agreeing that it will be expensive .

I'm through with the thread because quite frankly from the start of the thread it was sony fans running damage control against a huge company that does this professionaly

 

[mckmas8808]

I'm through with the thread because quite frankly from the start of the thread it was sony fans running damage control against a huge company that does this professionaly

This was never damage control jvd. Never. It's obvious that you can't have a open conversion about the numbers.

 

[jvd]

This was never damage control jvd. Never. It's obvious that you can't have a open conversion about the numbers.

numbers ? you provided no offical numbers . You provided a quote from an unnamed source and something that was apparently said but there is no offical quote .

Your comparing this against what one of the biggest risk assement firms reports taht are loaded with information that is both public knowledge and others info that is no yet public knowledge.

You have shown no proof whatso ever except hear say and rumors .

This is what the problem is with conversations here. They are pointed towards "numbers" from gaf "informers" or they are quotes that can not be confirmed as they are from uknown sources or apparently said but not on the record .

This whole thread has been damage control starting with this

OMG! So they lol... I can't stop lol... So they think because MS's money is long that this will push them to win the next-gen battle? Oh Merrill Lynch you have some learning to do. I know everyday posters that can predict better than this. This is so funny. How do you guys interpert this?

As i said from the very start nothing but damage control . With you even insulting a major investing / risk assement firm because apparently you a nobody on a forum has more info from uknown sources and things that might have or might not have been said .

T

 

[dantruon]

holy crap, this is no msn but why the message type so fast ? to me this analyst is as stupid as the BBC saying the ps3 will released 22 months after the xbox 360.

 

[g35er]

One of the biggest differences between ML and everyone else is they are liable if they don't tell the truth. They aren't liable for their predictions as no one is, but are liable for not reporting false information. If their customers use their numbers to buy MS or Sony stock and they are off by a mile, the customer can sue them. Likewise, Sony can sue them for defamation or unfair business practice or whatever. Not saying the numbers are right, but they do have a vested interest in not just using a random number generator to just throw out numbers. The question is, where did they derive these numbers? Did they speak to Sony and MS's vendors directly or did they get them from some analysis model?

If the numbers are even close to their prediction, I'm all for it. It'll force Sony to reduce their prices faster. Good for those of us who wait a couple of price drops before we buy.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Just making blanket statements with those dumb :shock; icons doesn't accomplish anything. Here's a pathological case for you, if an IC is 225mm2 but composed of 200 identical structures (with 100 needed operation) and minimal control, communication and bus logic is that going to yeild worse than a 150mm2 IC that's composed of 3 major structures all of which need to be functional?

Please link me to the info that half of Cell's transistor are to go unused. I've only heard of one SPE used for Redundancy, which is about 10%. Please also explain, if Sony only need say 100 Million transistors for Cell to be fully active (minus one SPE for PS3), why are they making the chip >2x as big? Why not lose 90% of the redundancy and fab a 120 Million transistor chip? I can't believe the average fab get's dozen of defects per wafer, enough to knock out as much as half of a chip's usefulness on a regular basis, that need soaking up with redundant parts. Hopefully you're going to show me this info and put me right.

 

[Phil]

Please link me to the info that half of Cell's transistor are to go unused. I've only heard of one SPE used for Redundancy, which is about 10%. Please also explain, if Sony only need say 100 Million transistors for Cell to be fully active (minus one SPE for PS3), why are they making the chip >2x as big? Why not lose 90% of the redundancy and fab a 120 Million transistor chip? I can't believe the average fab get's dozen of defects per wafer, enough to knock out as much as half of a chip's usefulness on a regular basis, that need soaking up with redundant parts. Hopefully you're going to show me this info and put me right.

Shifty, Vince isn't refering to transistors going unused - he's saying that the CELL chip is composed of many identical structures (= redundancy), i.e. the SPEs. As the defective rate goes up as die size increases, by hitting redundant structures, others stay intact which can be used. Because they are redundant, any SPE can be hit without rendering the chip useless as in the end, 7 need to be intact. Other manufactured CELL chips with less than 7 intact SPEs could be potentially used in other Sony CELL powered devices.

For any defect in Xenon, the whole chip is rendered useless. Ultimately, you're comparing a chip at 168mm^2 that needs to be defect free with CELL that could potentially have defects as long as they stay within the same SPE and only one. If 2 or more SPEs are defect, it is simply used for a different product and thus decreasing the cost associated with bad yields since chips with defective structures for the most part can still be used.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Shifty, Vince isn't refering to transistors going unused - he's saying that the CELL chip is composed of many identical structures (= redundancy), i.e. the SPEs. As the defective rate goes up as die size increases, by hitting redundant structures, others stay intact which can be used. Because they are redundant, any SPE could be hit, yet because they're all identical, it doesn't matter as in the end, only 7 are needed. Other manufactured CELL chips with less than 7 intact SPEs could be potentially used in other Sony CELL powered devices.

Yes I know. But Vince said 50% of the structure were given over to redundancy.

Cell has over 50% of it's structure devoted to redundant structures

Now if what Vince was trying to say was Cell include Redundancy protection that covers a defect in the SPE's, which mean half of defects are negated, then that wasn't the way to say it. Which is why I said (with a typo)...

Other someone's wording themselves very badly, or they need to go check where their getting their info from.

If Vince had replied 'What I meant was Cell SPE redundancy is a protection against a defect in as much as 50% of the area on Cell" or words to that effct, he'd have cleared it up. As it is, he still hasn't explained as such and I don't know if he really think 50% of Cell's structres are just there for Redundancy. If so, provide the link. If not, just explain it was a misunderstanding and reword your statement so you're not saying 50% of the transistors are devoted to (read as 'given over to' or 'used for' or 'there for the sake of') redundancy.

 

[London Geezer]

Yes I know. But Vince said 50% of the structure were given over to redundancy.
Now if what Vince was trying to say was Cell include Redundancy protection that covers a defect in the SPE's, which mean half of defects are negated, then that wasn't the way to say it. Which is why I said (with a typo)...

Nope, he was saying that Cell is pretty much a symmetrical chip, with about 50% of its structure being "repeated". Not that 50% of Cell is for redundancy (as in unused). Or that's what i understood, and agree with.