I think it's kind of funny how you hear from one side, Epic, Id, etc, that the independent studio is dying or at least endangered. That it takes so much money to compete today, there's too much risk in big budget projects, publishers favor their owned IP's, and that sort of thing.
Then on the other side you have studios like IW and Bungie apparently chomping at the bit to be independent. Which is it?
Bungie has a unique situation. They are semi-independant. Basically they have relatively full independance with 100% publisher support. In other words, they are guaranteed a good publishing deal for whatever title they make for MS.
IW just released 2 blockbusters in a row, so likely there are other publishers chomping at the bits to publish their next game if they were to go independant.
Now, contrast that to ID which was an independant engine developer (primarily). Their last licensed IP (Wolfenstein) wasn't well received and probably didn't sell as well as expected. The last ID game was Doom 3 in 2004 and received mixed reviews. Rage has been in developement for longer than some were expecting, and I'm sure EA were putting pressure on ID to deliver sooner rather than later. Additionally pressure from Epic and UE3 meant their core income stream was being challenged and reduced.
A far cry from their heyday when they only needed 10 or less devs to produce a game with large ROI possibilities and then even larger ROI on engine licensing. Feeling the pinch, they obviously felt it better to have solid financial backing over pure independance.
Epic is like Bungie in that they can maintain almost 100% independance being guaranteed good publishing contracts from MS (at least for Gears). And UE3 has been doing better than ID created engines in the past few years. However, looming on the horizon is a few engines that could challenge their current dominance (as they did to ID in the past). And also like ID, some of their past efforts released to mixed reviews. The last Unreal Tournament didn't perform to expectations and released to mixed reviews. Undermining somewhat their ability to negotiate a good publishing deal.
Also, Independant developers don't have the luxury of hoping a blockbuster somewhere else in their lineup will float an underperforming title. Sure they have publisher dollars for whatever they are currently working on, but if they underperform on a title, what are the chances of getting a lucrative publishing deal after that? For someone like ID, that's getting tough as their engine revenue is being reduced and their past few games haven't exactly released to universal acclaim and sales.
So far, only Bungie and Blizzard that I can think of (and probably IW) have a virtually unblemished track record of releasing blockbuster after blockbuster with no stinkers in between. Even ODST did phenomenally despite relatively low sales for a Halo title. Budget was extremely low since it was basically an expansion pack + well over 1 million in sales at regular title price.
As such those companies are in the drivers seat with regards to negotiating publishing deals. If they suddenly have a string of under performing titles however (2 or more), suddenly they won't be in quite as good position to negotiate contracts.
Regards,
SB