Japan Sales Thread *renamed

[Corwin_B]

No, I think it will be "Can Sony win without Japan and the US?"

Bububut... Europe is Sony land ! Really ! Altough DS and Wii have been selling like hotcakes, it is ! Wait for Singstar HD !

I still think Sony will be #1 when all is said and done this gen, but they certainly won't dominate like they did with PS2...

 

[Platon]

Bububut... Europe is Sony land ! Really ! Altough DS and Wii have been selling like hotcakes, it is ! Wait for Singstar HD !

I still think Sony will be #1 when all is said and done this gen, but they certainly won't dominate like they did with PS2...

I have the same feeling. Europe is still a PS stronghold but we will see what happens of course when it does indeed launch. Totaly anecdotal which in no way depicts the full picture or of new trends to come, but to my extreme surprize, people that I know, which at least I though were not even real gamers have actually gone and purchased an xbox360, even before me, as I got ine just a week ago, could the 360 really start to do some strides in Euroland?...

 

[assen]

I still think Sony will be #1 when all is said and done this gen, but they certainly won't dominate like they did with PS2...

This is a line of thinking that I can't seem to understand, although it is very frequently voiced. To me, if they fail to win dominating market share during their launch period (what exactly is "dominating market share" and how long is the "launch period" I don't know), they will drop out of the chicken-and-egg developer and publisher support game. Once they are perceived as a niche product deserving only shovelware ports, it will take an impossible amount of Cell physics superiority and games-needing-more-than-9-GB (both of which are somewhat uncertain factors) to overcome. Without massive support from third parties, no amount of quality first-party titles will get them out of their niche - see Nintendo last gen, for example.

So the only way I see Sony dominating by 2010 is if they have a stellar launch in Europe and a dominating Xmas 2007 season, redeeming the platform in the eyes of the developers/publishers. Both will take miracles.

 

[Acert93]

I don't think anyone questions that PS3 is not trending like PS2, but then again... I don't think anyone expected it to.

I did.

We are what... 3 months into the PS3's lifespan? I don't know how many times I said it -- and others along with me -- but I was on record with the opinion that Sony would have absolutely no issues selling the first 6M units (the original March 2007 projection) and that they would EASILY be supply limited until that point.

And I know I wasn't the only one with that opinion.

One could argue if that is "trending" like the PS2; but shipping 6M units in 4-5 months @ $499-$599 and being supply limited isn't far off from what we saw with the PS2 launch in 2000.

I think it's going to have a slower ramp-up this gen; where it ends up, we'll just have to see.

I think that will be a problem for Sony. For all the chest thumping, "Next Gen starts when we say so" the fact is next gen already started and they are a year late to the party. If they also plan to "ramp up slowly" especially in regards to software (which it appears they were late getting development underway for next gen titles) then the ball game could be over before they even field their starting rotation.

Sony needs to swing for the fences in 2007. They have the resources, it is just an issue of execution. Strategic price drops, movement to end the HD media war with a clear BluRay victory, important exclusive announcements, and extremely polished titles (Heavenly Sword, Motorstorm, MGS4, etc) can go a long way to reminding people who Sony is. If these things don't happen their sales will ramp slowly, and at some point it will become a critical mass issue where the 360 and/or Wii demand enough marketshare to ebb publisher support in those directions.

 

[Corwin_B]

This is a line of thinking that I can't seem to understand, although it is very frequently voiced. To me, if they fail to win dominating market share during their launch period (what exactly is "dominating market share" and how long is the "launch period" I don't know), they will drop out of the chicken-and-egg developer and publisher support game. Once they are perceived as a niche product deserving only shovelware ports, it will take an impossible amount of Cell physics superiority and games-needing-more-than-9-GB (both of which are somewhat uncertain factors) to overcome. Without massive support from third parties, no amount of quality first-party titles will get them out of their niche - see Nintendo last gen, for example.

My guess (I could be very wrong, mind you) on how that would be possible is that they could :
- take advantage of their still significant mindshare in Europe
- get basic parity for most 3rd party titles with the 360
- still get better Japanese support than MS, and perhaps even that Nintendo (look at how Capcom and Konami are still bent on giving significant support to the PSP, although most software tanks abysmally on it)
- change their PR approach drastically

It will take them a couple of hard price drops and huge developer relations efforts (moneyhats included), but they could do it and end with a slightly dominating position at the end of this generation. Considering Sony financials over the last few years, though, making the necessary price drops to reach that position could end in a pyrrhic victory. Another option is that Wii takes it all, of course.

So the only way I see Sony dominating by 2010 is if they have a stellar launch in Europe and a dominating Xmas 2007 season, redeeming the platform in the eyes of the developers/publishers. Both will take miracles.

I think insane dev costs for high-profile titles this gen mean that not that many 3rd party titles will be exclusive to the 360 (or to the PS3).

 

[Fafalada]

One could argue if that is "trending" like the PS2; but shipping 6M units in 4-5 months @ $499-$599 and being supply limited isn't far off from what we saw with the PS2 launch in 2000.

PS2 took ~12months to ship first 10M. I'd wait for a few months before arguing whether PS3 can come close to that or not (for what's worth, PSP shipped that much in first year, while PS1 didn't )

 

[baten]

I think insane dev costs for high-profile titles this gen mean that not that many 3rd party titles will be exclusive to the 360 (or to the PS3).

No publisher can dismiss PS3 at this point. We see the signs of many of them going multiplatform, but I dont think any of them is actually considering to stop developing for PS3, even if for the moment the numbers are not there.

 

[Rangers]

I've got to think the high price is just killing Sony.

That and the fact that, in the West, 360 is basically an equivalent machine (for less, with more games) at this point.

Some Japanese gaffer said something to the effect Gears second shipment right now is also selling out/well, (though I'm sure retailers aren't ordering tons or anything, considering the platform) so that's interesting. Not helping the hardware sales a lot but it's pretty cool.

At 7k 360 hardware this week, that's around 30k a month, which would be more than 300k a year. I doubt it can sustain those sales but I think a good goal for ms would be a 1m install base at some point in Japan. And just like America, they seem to buy games in disportionate numbers. So it would actually be a viable fringe software platform for a title here and there, something that money can actually be made on, in that case. Take CliffyB, I'm sure with 30k sold this week and probably another 30k coming up, they maybe shipped 70 or 80k to Japan, which since it's been out so long in America, is probably a nice little bump in their Gears shipments right now. Bizzarely enough.

PSP still going strong, in it's also ran capacity 37,000 isn't anything to laugh at by normal (aka, pre-DS/Wii) standards.

I've been thinking of making a seperate topic for this for a while now (but have not because of it's controversial nature), but it's worth touching on here, how many people honestly ever though Sony would be in this position, almost fully fallen, this generation? What a spectacular coincidence of things gone wrong in such a short time for them..people would say "no company has ever won videogames three generations in a row" before, but I never honestly believed it would happen to Sony because they just looked so strong during the PS2 era..but it is.

 

[London Geezer]

how many people honestly ever though Sony would be in this position, almost fully fallen, this generation? What a spectacular coincidence of things gone wrong in such a short time for them..people would say "no company has ever won videogames three generations in a row" before, but I never honestly believed it would happen to Sony because they just looked so strong during the PS2 era..but it is.

Wow... Sony "have fallen"? You talk as if they're over, finished, Sega style.

It's 3 months, give me a break. Prices will drop, games will launch. PS1 had a slower start than PS3.

Price is definitely hurting Sony big time, but let's not draw conclusions after just 3 months.

 

[Corwin_B]

PSP still going strong, in it's also ran capacity 37,000 isn't anything to laugh at by normal (aka, pre-DS/Wii) standards.

PSP problem is and has nearly always been SW sales, sadly. HW has managed pretty good numbers over time (as you said in an "also ran" kind of way), but apart from launch games and a couple of hits (MHP, MGS, Tales...) all SW has bombed horribly on it (and from those, only MHP has shown long "legs" sales-wise). IIRC, DS SW beat PSP SW by like 19:1 in 2006 in Japan...

 

[Capeta]

The thing about PSP hardware is that it's a pretty nice and relatively cheap media player with a nice big screen so it's no wonder that it's still selling well even though there aren't that many good games for it. I would buy one myself if I didn't already have plans on getting a nice PMP with a 5" touch screen just for it's media capabilites. PS3 OTOH doesn't have that same appeal unfortunately so the hardware isn't selling so well. Most people already have a PC so PS3 brings nothing on the hardware front other than a cheap BR player. Even as a BR player the market for that is quite small as seen by the number of $500 HD DVD players being sold. As it stands PS3 without games at $500-$600 isn't very compelling for a lot of people. Most people are buying the X360 and Wii for games and waiting for a PS3 price drop before they jump in.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

PS2 took ~12months to ship first 10M. PSP shipped that much in first year, while PS1 didn't

Did you start counting from the Japanese launch of these consoles?, if you did then these numbers aren't even close of being comparable... PS1 was released in December 94 in Japan and September 95 in US and Europe. PS2 also existed much longer in only Japan than PS3.

 

[London Geezer]

It is also worth considering that PS3 - like X360 - is basically yet another console.

Nintendo is doing many things right by differentiating itself from the competition. First the DS, then the Wii. People might call the touch screen and the Wiimote "gimmicks" but it's undeniable that they offer experiences that are different enough for people to be interested enough to buy them - the price obviously helps.

By contrast, MS and Sony are doing "bigger and better". People get bored of the same old thing, as "bigger and better" as it is. If a company can't come up with something radically new, where the shift completely changes - and it did, as Nintendo changed the focus from the "graphic-monster race" to something that is just played differently - then people will be reluctant, simply because graphics only takes you so far. It makes the geeks happy, but it doesn't do much to a lot of people, especially if they need to pay so much more for the "prettier pixels".

Before DS launched, the majority of the people were writing Nintendo off "because it can't even do bilinear!!!"... or because "PSP is Sony, it will have GT and MGS, it's bound to win!"...

Well, who's laughing now.

Even the biggest fans won't keep buying GT or MGS on every bloody Sony console. Or Halo for tha matter. There is only so much you can milk a franchise before you are forced to move laterally, not upwards (graphics-wise), and come up with something radically new.

Having said that, Nintendo are guilty of over-milking franchises too, heck they're the best in the business, with the hundreds of Mario and Zelda and Pokemon games. But at least they were smart enough to see where the market was going, and it's certainly paying dividends.

 

[TheChefO]

It is also worth considering that PS3 - like X360 - is basically yet another console.

Nintendo is doing many things right by differentiating itself from the competition. First the DS, then the Wii. People might call the touch screen and the Wiimote "gimmicks" but it's undeniable that they offer experiences that are different enough for people to be interested enough to buy them - the price obviously helps.

By contrast, MS and Sony are doing "bigger and better". People get bored of the same old thing, as "bigger and better" as it is. If a company can't come up with something radically new, where the shift completely changes - and it did, as Nintendo changed the focus from the "graphic-monster race" to something that is just played differently - then people will be reluctant, simply because graphics only takes you so far. It makes the geeks happy, but it doesn't do much to a lot of people, especially if they need to pay so much more for the "prettier pixels".

Before DS launched, the majority of the people were writing Nintendo off "because it can't even do bilinear!!!"... or because "PSP is Sony, it will have GT and MGS, it's bound to win!"...

Well, who's laughing now.

Even the biggest fans won't keep buying GT or MGS on every bloody Sony console. Or Halo for tha matter. There is only so much you can milk a franchise before you are forced to move laterally, not upwards (graphics-wise), and come up with something radically new.

Having said that, Nintendo are guilty of over-milking franchises too, heck they're the best in the business, with the hundreds of Mario and Zelda and Pokemon games. But at least they were smart enough to see where the market was going, and it's certainly paying dividends.

Great post - Nintendo has proven that the market was desiring something more than a prettier (more expensive) picture and are reaping the rewards of their foresight and innovation to meet this demand with a cheap, profitable and different expenerience.

Sony and MS are both playing the same old game but MS took the cheaper route (short term and long term).

If this market is to significantly grow this gen it will be because Wii, which is ironic given that MS was the one touting 1 billion gamers etc.

 

[scooby_dooby]

PS2 took ~12months to ship first 10M. I'd wait for a few months before arguing whether PS3 can come close to that or not (for what's worth, PSP shipped that much in first year, while PS1 didn't )

PS2 didn't have a WW launch. PS3 launched in US and JPN at the same time, and looks to be launching in EU 5 months later, big difference.

 

[TheChefO]

PS2 didn't have a WW launch. PS3 launched in US and JPN at the same time, and looks to be launching in EU 5 months later, big difference.

Ps2 sold 4million in Japan alone for the first 12 months (March 2000 - March 2001).
http://www.vgcharts.org/japweekly.php?date=36954

5.2million in the US for the first 12 months (October 2000 - October 2001)
http://www.vgcharts.org/usamonthly.php?date=37165&console=

No idea what they sold in EU.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's 3 months, give me a break. Prices will drop, games will launch. PS1 had a slower start than PS3.

It's a good thing none of these peple predicting doom for Sony were in charge of the Allied forces in WWII. The first battle the German tanks won, they'd have thrown in the towel and conceeded to the Nazis.

I can also only assume these people never watch any sport, where comebacks are not uncommon. And I guess they've never made note of the myriad of companies who's fortunes have waxed and waned, who can still swing an amazing success.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

You cant compare it to sports because that is something you can controll yourself. Its alot harder to sell a product because you dont have full controll over the consumers actions. And ofcourse you can have a comeback, but in console land the first 6 - 12 months are by far the most important usually because of the chicken egg story. I really dont see the ps3 have a strong comeback if they cant manage to have a strong first year. Sure they'll sell some because of exclusives, but so did the GC and xbox. I think the main reason why the xbox and gc sold is because of the few exclusives they had and I see the same thing happening to the ps3 if they have a really bad year.

 

[TheChefO]

It's a good thing none of these peple predicting doom for Sony were in charge of the Allied forces in WWII. The first battle the German tanks won, they'd have thrown in the towel and conceeded to the Nazis.

I can also only assume these people never watch any sport, where comebacks are not uncommon. And I guess they've never made note of the myriad of companies who's fortunes have waxed and waned, who can still swing an amazing success.

True - Sony could come back to dominate the market just like the colts 4 minute 21pt comeback on the bucs in 03 or WWII. It's just that those events are exceptional and remembered because they don't happen often.

It would take a miracle for Sony to dominate this gen. History in the games space does not dictate the future but it does give us a hint as to what to expect.

 

[nonamer]

True - Sony could come back to dominate the market just like the colts 4 minute 21pt comeback on the bucs in 03 or WWII. It's just that those events are exceptional and remembered because they don't happen often.

It would take a miracle for Sony to dominate this gen. History in the games space does not dictate the future but it does give us a hint as to what to expect.

It's funny how some people defended Nintendo against the "Nintendo is doomed!" crowd, can't realize the irony of their current position.