Japan Sales Thread *renamed

Nintendo attracting NEW people to the market is not the same has existing gamers (150 million of them) wanting something different. In fact it's just proof that Nintendo needs new consumers for the Wii to be a success. Everyone here should remember that the Cube was very strong out of the gate too. They sold about 75% as many Cubes at $300 that they have Wii's at $250 w/free game in the first 3 months.

I think that Nintendo WILL bring new consumers into the market and the will be successful with Wii, but I don't think it's even possible that they will dominate.

Cube sold for $200.

And by the way they sold 4million GC's in Japan to date. 1.2million Wii's so far, 2 months in.;)
 
Indeed - and I can still be an astronaut.

Highly unlikely though based on current designs/events.

And the PS3 will be $600 forever, and no games will come out for it ever.

Seriously, you have totally failed to grasp the concept of premature statements.
 
Meet Nintendo: dominating Japan by a LARGE margin on a very few sequels, just because of a "dual screen thingy" and a "motion sensing controller".

You need to look at the facts, matey.

Facts: yearly chart for Japan for 2006, courtsy of vgcharts.org, top 10:

1. Dragon Quest Monsters Joker DS Enix 322,750 942,500
2 Wii Sports Wii Nintendo 291,500 873,750
3 Pokemon Diamond / Pearl DS Nintendo 282,000 4,775,250
4 Wii Play Wii Nintendo 243,750 777,250
5 New Super Mario Bros DS Nintendo 200,750 4,218,250
6 Common Knowledge Training DS Nintendo 181,750 1,172,500
7 Brain Training 2 DS Nintendo 176,250 4,181,500
8 Animal Crossing: Wild World DS Nintendo 160,250 4,084,500
9 hack G.U. Vol. 3 PS2 Bandai 139,500 139,500
10 Kirby Squeek Squad

What isn't a sequel here? Only Wii Sports and Wii Play, I think?
 
And the PS3 will be $600 forever, and no games will come out for it ever.

Seriously, you have totally failed to grasp the concept of premature statements.

Point is they need to sell now to establish developer support later. Can you grasp that concept?

They will have games later. They will be cheaper later (sooner?). But the problem they have is their competition isn't sitting still waiting.

Bottom line. Ps3 will be affordable(<$200) one day and will have great games available but it will be too late in the cycle to be meaningful.
 
"And the PS3 will be $600 forever, and no games will come out for it ever"

And by the time the PS3 drops price the WII and 360 will have dropped in price keeping a similar price difference. As we are seeing now the majority of games are going Multi-Plat and if a game is on both the 360 and the PS3 and have no real differences people will buy it on the cheaper console.
 
"And the PS3 will be $600 forever, and no games will come out for it ever"

And by the time the PS3 drops price the WII and 360 will have dropped in price keeping a similar price difference. As we are seeing now the majority of games are going Multi-Plat and if a game is on both the 360 and the PS3 and have no real differences people will buy it on the cheaper console.

Indeed - I don't know why this is such a hard concept to grasp for some people.
 
Point is they need to sell now to establish developer support later. Can you grasp that concept?

They will have games later. They will be cheaper later (sooner?). But the problem they have is their competition isn't sitting still waiting.

Bottom line. Ps3 will be affordable(<$200) one day and will have great games available but it will be too late in the cycle to be meaningful.

You can make that judgment after 2 months of sales? Do I need to stamp the word "PREMATURE" on your forehead before you'll get it?
 
Highly unlikely though based on current designs/events.
Do not not understand how ephemeral the current events are though? eg. Look at PSP 3 months into it's life. Looking at the events then, you could draw a conclusion that PSP would probably be about 50% of the handheld market in 4 years time. That didn't factor in DS's redesign and the release of Brain Training, which catapulted DS into the lead. The trends of the first 3 months were no indicator at all of later events, because those trends aren't the slightest bit influenced by future events. It'd only need a large price drop, doable this year, take up of HD movies, and a couple major show-stopping titles, to push PS3 to the fore. No-one knows if those things are going to happen. Sure, you can say 'well I see no evidence for those things now, so I don't expect them to happen,' but that's what everyone else considers to be a 'premature statement'. The market isn't static and we know there's going to be changes in perception and value of the systems.

tongue_of_colicab said:
You cant compare it to sports because that is something you can controll yourself. Its alot harder to sell a product because you dont have full controll over the consumers actions.
That's not true. A football team only has control of their actions. They don't control everything in the game. Likewise in WWII. The Allies only won because as well as making some right moves, the enemy made over whom they had no control made some wrong ones. Big comebacks don't happen because you have absolute control over events. They happen because you adjust to the losing situation and pick up your game to out-compete the opposition.

Sony are in control of their actions. They've come onto the field a bit of a mess. 3 minutes into the game, 6 points down, and people are saying they've lost completely. There's a whole host of things that can happen to put Sony back into a strong position. Are they likely to score 120 points again? Unlikely, but then no-one was expecting them to this gen. Are they going to be fumbling around for the next 5 years and not even get on the score sheet, just because that's how they've started? It's surprising how many people seem to think so after such a short beginning!
 
You can make that judgment after 2 months of sales? Do I need to stamp the word "PREMATURE" on your forehead before you'll get it?

You believe Sony will catch fire late in the game and that's fine. People can believe what they want. I believe (from looking at historic console sales data) that a console is defined by it's first year. 1/6 of that is done and isn't TRENDING in their favor.

edit -I also believe they will pick up sales later in its life, but this will not be enough to sway this generation before next gen starts.
 
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Do not not understand how ephemeral the current events are though? eg. Look at PSP 3 months into it's life. Looking at the events then, you could draw a conclusion that PSP would probably be about 50% of the handheld market in 4 years time. That didn't factor in DS's redesign and the release of Brain Training, which catapulted DS into the lead. The trends of the first 3 months were no indicator at all of later events, because those trends aren't the slightest bit influenced by future events. It'd only need a large price drop, doable this year, take up of HD movies, and a couple major show-stopping titles, to push PS3 to the fore. No-one knows if those things are going to happen. Sure, you can say 'well I see no evidence for those things now, so I don't expect them to happen,' but that's what everyone else considers to be a 'premature statement'. The market isn't static and we know there's going to be changes in perception and value of the systems.

That's not true. A football team only has control of their actions. They don't control everything in the game. Likewise in WWII. The Allies only won because as well as making some right moves, the enemy made over whom they had no control made some wrong ones. Big comebacks don't happen because you have absolute control over events. They happen because you adjust to the losing situation and pick up your game to out-compete the opposition.

Sony are in control of their actions. They've come onto the field a bit of a mess. 3 minutes into the game, 6 points down, and people are saying they've lost completely. There's a whole host of things that can happen to put Sony back into a strong position. Are they likely to score 120 points again? Unlikely, but then no-one was expecting them to this gen. Are they going to be fumbling around for the next 5 years and not even get on the score sheet, just because that's how they've started? It's surprising how many people seem to think so after such a short beginning!

First of all - psp is a more expensive design than ds and this limits the market it can sell to.

In the same vein ps3 is the most expensive box to build by a large margin. They cannot redesign ps3 without Bluray and without hdd to make the BOM similar to 360core. Their design choices have put them in a hole and their policy of having devs design to the limits of BR instead of DVD9 has trapped them in BR.

This limits Sony's actions as they can artificially make it equally priced to 360 but they will kill their financials in the meantime. For some reason I don't think Sony Stockholders would be too happy with that do you?
 
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Cube sold for $200.

And by the way they sold 4million GC's in Japan to date. 1.2million Wii's so far, 2 months in.;)

Oops my mistake. But world-wide they sold 3 million Cube's at launch versus 4 million Wii's so nothing too shocking here really. The Wii numbers next Christmas will tell a more accurate story IMO.
 
Oops my mistake. But world-wide they sold 3 million Cube's at launch versus 4 million Wii's so nothing too shocking here really. The Wii numbers next Christmas will tell a more accurate story IMO.

Agreed - but as it sits now Wii is still sold out as soon as it hits stores. I get the feeling they will have at least one more strong Christmas selling season especially considering the pricing flexibility they have with Wii.
 
So when PS3 is $250, Wii will be handed out free? And when PS3 is $150, they'll be paying you to get a Wii?

Now, now, i know you dont really mean that... :)

The problem for Sony here is that i dont believe they felt that a pricing disadvantage would be a concern so early on. They chose to bank on brand loyalty and the fact that a bluray drive would translate into perceived value. It turns out consumers may be more sensitive pricing than thought, and the format war is devaluing the BR drive.

If Sony execs are to be believed, we wont see the first PS3 price drop until mid-2008.

So i ask you, when can we reasonably expect the PS3 to drop its price and Nintendo/MS not have the option to match it? (i.e. theyve hit their price floor) Late 2009?
 
Exactly Shifty. Sony's goose is far from cooked. Everyone around here knows that I love my X360 and its games, but Sony is still going to do fine in the end. They will have to make the PS3 last 6-7 years in order to do well, but they'll get to 75 million eventually.

Care to explain? not that I disagree with you but history has shown us that multiple consoles 'failed' because they went the way the ps3 seems to be going. I dont understand why everybody says sony will be fine just because its sony. It went exactly the same with the n64 though along with other reasons.

Going forward I would still state that the Nintendo Wii will NEVER be the meat and potatoes console for the 20-30 male demographic. Nintendo will do better than I had expected, but without any sandbox games, driving games, serious shooters, deep RPGs etc... they aren't going to take over the market and dominate. It's not possible IMO.

Besides that fact that the demographic beyond/below 20 - 30 is alot bigger than the 20 - 30 demographic, who says those games cant be on Wii? its not that the wii magically is only capable of kiddy minigames.

PS: I would also like to say that this business of consumers wanting something new and fresh and don't want the same old thing: Rubbish. Mario and Final Fantasy should put that argument to rest.

Do keep in mind that though mario and ff use the same base over and over, the games are totally different each time.

which sells no more than 5 million each time, and as good as that is, it's definitely not enough when you have new games like GTA selling 15M each...

But GTA is a total different kind of game. You can just play GTA and drive around a bit and do some stuff while you have to play games like FF with a goal in mind. The market for a game where you can do what you want is just bigger than a game with a set goal.

Hardly, you're pointing to one or two new IPs per GENERATION like GTA and Halo. GT, FF, MGS, Tony Hawk, Madden, FF, Mario games, Zelda etc... are very significant. Consumers WANT sequels. They LOVE them. They CRAVE them. The idea that they're looking for something completely new is nonsense IMO.

If you talk about the few ''classic'' series, yes. But for most games I dont care about a sequal at all. Rather see something new to be honest.

I am looking at the facts. Zelda sold HUGE in Japan. Sony doesn't have any of their popular sequels out. Next DQ on DS will sell HUGE. Sequels sell. Gamers love them. You have a small 3 month period that you are examining in a market that has gone hand-held mania crazy where the competition doesn't have their popular IP sequels out yet. Your argument doesn't hold water IMO.

Zelda sold huge in Japan? check the sales, zelda sold bad in Japan. The last time zelda was really populair in Japan was with a link to the past. When zelda went 3d action adventure they dropped it.

just because that's how they've started? It's surprising how many people seem to think so after such a short beginning!

I didnt say that will happen. I said it will happen only if they dont do something about the situation they are in right now.
 
Care to explain? not that I disagree with you but history has shown us that multiple consoles 'failed' because they went the way the ps3 seems to be going. I dont understand why everybody says sony will be fine just because its sony. It went exactly the same with the n64 though along with other reasons.

Well, to be fair they do own the factories that are making the ps3 so they could just charge themselves $250 and match Wii's price point now if they wanted to. I don't know why I didn't see this before.:oops:

Now the only thing they need to do is get some software out on the shelves and they're good to go.

Nevermind all - I've seen the light and I change my prediction to Sony domination.
 
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