Japan Sales Thread *renamed

Shifty Geezer said:
Evergrace wouldn't have made the Top 10 in 2007. When PS2 launched it's games may have been reaching the top ten, simply because they're wasn't much competition. In contrast PS3 is out alongside another far cheaper console that's got the buzz factor, and the runaway DS, and the massive PS2 install base.

To get into that top ten, a game would have to sell to 10% of the PS3 install base, which is a lot for pretty much any game, especially for one week. Most of the really big franchises don't reach that percentage of console owners. Looking at the Wii, WiiPlay got on the list by selling to 4% of Wii owners in one week. It's in having a large install base that a 4% figure gets it into the top 10 sales. Likewise .hack topping the chart despite selling to a tiny percentage of installed PS2s.

There's no reason to think PS3 will feature heavily in Japan's top ten until either there's a substantial install base, or games with massive appeal that most PS3 owners buy it.
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Agreed - that's their problem. Systems aren't selling and they don't have killer apps to seperate themselves from the competition.

Bigger problem is Japan typically chooses a victor and rallys behind them the whole generation. (see ps2 vs gc/xbox ... ds vs psp ... super famicom vs mega drive)
 
Shifty Geezer said:
Evergrace wouldn't have made the Top 10 in 2007. When PS2 launched it's games may have been reaching the top ten, simply because they're wasn't much competition. In contrast PS3 is out alongside another far cheaper console that's got the buzz factor, and the runaway DS, and the massive PS2 install base.

To get into that top ten, a game would have to sell to 10% of the PS3 install base, which is a lot for pretty much any game, especially for one week. Most of the really big franchises don't reach that percentage of console owners. Looking at the Wii, WiiPlay got on the list by selling to 4% of Wii owners in one week. It's in having a large install base that a 4% figure gets it into the top 10 sales. Likewise .hack topping the chart despite selling to a tiny percentage of installed PS2s.

There's no reason to think PS3 will feature heavily in Japan's top ten until either there's a substantial install base, or games with massive appeal that most PS3 owners buy it.
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The thing is, the discussion hasn't been about the top 10. It's been about the top 30. They didn't have a title reach the top 30 in sales the past week. The #20 title on the list sold around 14000 units, which is a bit over 2% of the PS3 install base. I don't have sales numbers for #30 but I would think it would come in at 2% or lower.
 
mrcorbo said:
The thing is, the discussion hasn't been about the top 10. It's been about the top 30.
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It's a bit hard to argue how badly PS3's sales are doing without figures for the top 30 though, which I haven't noticed until you listed them here. They're certainly not in the OP's Top 30.

Looking at your number 20 figure, 14,000 units. If there are no new games released, those existing PS3 owners that wanted a game likely already have it. Thus you're only selling to the new buyers, which is all of 30,000 a month. Thus a game would have to appeal to 50% of the new buyers to get to the no. 20 spot.

If a new game is released, it has a chance of selling to the entire install base, at which point you'd hope for a better showing. A long-term sales chart is where you'd be more likely to see PS3 appear, with accumulated sales. Though with the lack-lustre sales, even that might not be a sure thing.
 
dobwal said:
How did you formulate such an opinion? IMO, a 10% attach rate after 1 week is pretty good.

How many future 2007 360 games in the US have a chance of selling 500,000 copies in its first week?

A 10% attach rate regardless of time frame on any mature console is astounding. In fact a 10% attach rate in the first week on the PS2 is literally impossible.
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Well Halo 3 will probably obliterate that figure... I have to say though that my post probably left a wrong impression on my thoughts, I nodest that I said "it's not much" I was supposed to say not that great. Imo those sales for Gears are good, but not exceptional. 10 attach rate is much easier for a small installed base than for large, and event hough Xbox 360 has been out in Japan for a while now, it's questionable whether it's mature.

Do you mean PS3 or WTF?
 
Dr Evil said:
Well Halo 3 will probably obliterate that figure... I have to say though that my post probably left a wrong impression on my thoughts, I nodest that I said "it's not much" I was supposed to say not that great. Imo those sales for Gears are good, but not exceptional. 10 attach rate is much easier for a small installed base than for large, and event hough Xbox 360 has been out in Japan for a while now, it's questionable whether it's mature.

Do you mean PS3 or WTF?
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P2 in relation to its worldwide userbase. No standalone game is going to sell 8 - 10 million worldwide within its first week that based on the my knowledge that that has never happen.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
It's a bit hard to argue how badly PS3's sales are doing without figures for the top 30 though, which I haven't noticed until you listed them here. They're certainly not in the OP's Top 30.

Looking at your number 20 figure, 14,000 units. If there are no new games released, those existing PS3 owners that wanted a game likely already have it. Thus you're only selling to the new buyers, which is all of 30,000 a month. Thus a game would have to appeal to 50% of the new buyers to get to the no. 20 spot.

If a new game is released, it has a chance of selling to the entire install base, at which point you'd hope for a better showing. A long-term sales chart is where you'd be more likely to see PS3 appear, with accumulated sales. Though with the lack-lustre sales, even that might not be a sure thing.
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Looking at VgCharts Japan weekly charts prior to 2007 shows Top 100 lists. Looking back at past Januarys the typical sales of the number 30 slot is around 4,000 to 10,000. That anywhere from 0.7% to 1.7% of the PS3's Japan userbase.
 
Wow. MS is on track to sell 500k X360s in Japan this year. That's pretty good to sell at half the rate of PS3. I think an X360 w/Gears, Dead Rising, Lost Planet, and Blue Dragon is a pretty good package now for Japanese console gamers. MS has to get Eternal Sonata and Lost Odysee out as soon as they can if they want to build momentum.
 
Johnny Awesome said:
Wow. MS is on track to sell 500k X360s in Japan this year. That's pretty good to sell at half the rate of PS3. I think an X360 w/Gears, Dead Rising, Lost Planet, and Blue Dragon is a pretty good package now for Japanese console gamers. MS has to get Eternal Sonata and Lost Odysee out as soon as they can if they want to build momentum.
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And see if they can work "something" out to get vf5 released in Japan too. ;)

At this point in Japan, Ms needs to not only start producing good games that J-gamers can identify with and appreciate, they need to start selling the future. By that I mean work out deals for upcoming games to reassure that gamers there will not only have the opportunity to play LO and BD but also some of their favorite niche games too. FF and MGS may be too much for MS to pry away in Japan but getting some train/date/horse riding simulators would be a good thing for those guys ...and a mock render of Ninja Gaiden2 might help push a few systems too.:D
 
how much market share do you guys reckon XB360 will have in the end of its console cycle??? i vote for "they need blue dragon every two-three months" to gain some sort of penetration into the market if you know what i mean
 
Shifty Geezer said:
It's a bit hard to argue how badly PS3's sales are doing without figures for the top 30 though, which I haven't noticed until you listed them here. They're certainly not in the OP's Top 30.
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Disclaimer* I am just using Vgchart numbers which i must admit Im not too trusting in terms of accuracy. Takes this with a grain of salt

Comparing the 360 software sales for holiday season 2005 in the US and PS3 software sales for holiday season 2006 in Japan and US shows a pretty bad showing for the PS3.

360 USA Holiday 2005
2.7 million software sold
COD2 sold 575K
Madden NFL 06 sold 367K
Perfect Dark Zero sold 328K

PS3 USA Holiday 2006
780K software sold
Resistance sold 328K
Madden 210K

PS3 Japan Holiday 2006
485K software sold
Mobile Suit Gundam: Target In Sight sold 105K
Ridge Racer 7 101K
Resistance sold 83K

PS3 has outpaced the 360 in terms of hardware in japan but the 360 has moved 764K in software compared to PS3 577K in software in Japan. Obviously the 360 has been out in japan longer, but it still seems odd that there is more PS3 hardware in japan than PS3 software. The attachment rate is still below 1. This is using sale numbers in japan up to last week.

These number tell us what most us knew all along that MS executed its launch better than Sony even with similar launch numbers in terms of hardware.
 
dobwal said:
Comparing the 360 software sales for holiday season 2005 in the US and PS3 software sales for holiday season 2006 in Japan and US shows a pretty bad showing for the PS3.

360 USA Holiday 2005
2.7 million software sold
COD2 sold 575K
Madden NFL 06 sold 367K
Perfect Dark Zero sold 328K
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It doesn't show a bad showing for PS3 so much as a great showing for MS. But that showing was not of MS' own design, it stemmed at least in part due to the insane bundling which retailers inflicted upon the consumer. That practice was more or less wiped out due to consumer backlash at retail this year for the Sony and Nintendo launches. If it had persisted, no doubt both new consoles would have reflected raised attach rates at launch as well.
 
xbd said:
It doesn't show a bad showing for PS3 so much as a great showing for MS. But that showing was not of MS' own design, it stemmed at least in part due to the insane bundling which retailers inflicted upon the consumer. That practice was more or less wiped out due to consumer backlash at retail this year for the Sony and Nintendo launches. If it had persisted, no doubt both new consoles would have reflected raised attach rates at launch as well.
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What kind of showing would you bestow on the PS3 for selling more hardware than software in japan even we are two months beyond launch?
 
dobwal said:
What kind of showing would you bestow on the PS3 for selling more hardware than software in japan even we are two months beyond launch?
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Software-wise? Pretty bad.

But I'd also say that here is a system people are interested in owning (to an extent) in spite of there not being a single game out they wish to purchase for it. I mean it's not good, but it does accurately describe a sort of latent interest in the system.
 
xbd said:
It doesn't show a bad showing for PS3 so much as a great showing for MS. But that showing was not of MS' own design, it stemmed at least in part due to the insane bundling which retailers inflicted upon the consumer. That practice was more or less wiped out due to consumer backlash at retail this year for the Sony and Nintendo launches. If it had persisted, no doubt both new consoles would have reflected raised attach rates at launch as well.
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Oh come on! Not a bad showing for PS3?? Give me a break dude, spin spin spin spin. Yes, it's a bad showing, Resistance and Motorstorm should both be selling, the console itself should be selling more, and it's a clear indication of lower than expected demand. That's it!

It's no bundle mumbo-jumbo by MS that created their strong SW sales, seem highly unlikely to me that those bundles represented a large portion of console sales, though if you have some numbers I'd like to see em.

It was a factor of the high quality of the titles, and the novelty factor of HD gaming, it was due to MS's design, insofar as they secured a strong launch lineup, and launched in 2005 which allowed them to reap the attention of HDTV owners salivating for content.
 
The hardware numbers from Media Create. The DS Lite & Wii continue with solid numbers, PS3 is fading further, and the 360 further still while not seemingly helped by Gears sales. Soon maybe Sony fans will be asked the question they've been asking MS fans, "can Sony win without Japan?" :)

DSL 127,647
Wii 86,395
PSP 37,032
PS3 21,105
PS2 20,169
Xbox360 7,041
GBM 1,864
GBASP 1,498
GC 554
DS 123
GBA 94
 
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