Let's face it, no physics engine is going to be able to influence gameplay to any great extent until practically all available hardware supports it. In other words, I'd tend to doubt that this won't be for a couple of years when decent DX11 cards from both the major IHVs are widely used.
The hardware isn't the problem.
Both nVidia and AMD already have hardware capable of DirectCompute/OpenCL on the market.
The problems are mainly software at this point...
OpenCL isn't officially supported by either nVidia or AMD on publically released drivers... Havok allegedly supports OpenCL, but it hasn't been released yet either. The only other physics API that supports OpenCL afaik is Bullet. I'm not sure what the status of its OpenCL support is. But without public drivers, it's not very useful for final products at this point.
DirectCompute is currently only supported by nVidia in public drivers. But I don't know of any physics API planning to make use of DirectCompute.
Aside from that, DirectCompute will only run on Vista SP2 or Windows 7. On Vista SP2 it requires the Platform Update, which is currently still in beta stage. Windows 7 isn't released for the consumer market yet.
So while us developers can get DirectCompute running, it's not going to run out-of-the-box on a consumer machine yet. When Windows 7 launches, at least nVidia is covered, but I don't know how long AMD is going to take.
I wouldn't be surprised if the lack of XP support has something to do with the lack of interest from physics API developers to leverage the DirectCompute functionality. The number of people still gaming on XP is just too large to ignore.
The only software that actually works at this point is PhysX, and it actually works on XP, Vista and Windows 7, and it runs on Cuda, which is a very mature product by now, unlike OpenCL and DirectCompute.