How much will The Last of Us Part 2 sell ?

[Rangers]

The delay could be good really, now they have a big title to launch PS5 with to counter Halo Infinite.

BUT new consoles sell out in November and Dec regardless, so it wont REALLY help then. BUT it could help PS5 sales the following spring I suppose. They'd probably prefer that to it helping sell a few more PS4's.

But I'm also pretty sure Corona as a reason for delay is baloney. We know video game sales are skyrocketing on lockdown, and digital sales even moreso. At this point they could feasibly launch digital only and likely do well! Further, at least in the USA many stores that sell physical games are classified as "essential retail" and remain open (Wal Mart, Target, Costco etc). Perhaps flashy midnight launches would be out (do they even do those anymore?) but that's ok. Besides that almost certainly by May/June we should be turned the Corona Virus corner, at least.

 

[disco_]

The delay could be good really, now they have a big title to launch PS5 with to counter Halo Infinite.

BUT new consoles sell out in November and Dec regardless, so it wont REALLY help then. BUT it could help PS5 sales the following spring I suppose. They'd probably prefer that to it helping sell a few more PS4's.

But I'm also pretty sure Corona as a reason for delay is baloney. We know video game sales are skyrocketing on lockdown, and digital sales even moreso. At this point they could feasibly launch digital only and likely do well! Further, at least in the USA many stores that sell physical games are classified as "essential retail" and remain open (Wal Mart, Target, Costco etc). Perhaps flashy midnight launches would be out (do they even do those anymore?) but that's ok. Besides that almost certainly by May/June we should be turned the Corona Virus corner, at least.

Not buying the logistics reason either but the game isn't finished, it's nearly finished. And with the studio being closed, what can they do about it?

 

[zed]

At this point they could feasibly launch digital only and likely do well! Further, at least in the USA many stores that sell physical games are classified as "essential retail" and remain open (Wal Mart, Target, Costco etc). Perhaps flashy midnight launches would be out (do they even do those anymore?)

Here in Spain you would not be able to physically buy the game, walmart/target etc like stores are not open, only food/medicine places

Yes is prolly would do 10+ million regardless, but even now with consoles physical sales still make up over half of sales.
OK so if the only way you can get it is digital and thus this percent grows to more than half
If you were a company would you really release now and get perhaps only 60% of the sales you would get if you had released both physically/digitally?
Though waiting 6-12 months runs the risk of competing with the new consoles, so I assume sales would also be impacted, either way they are screwed

 

[Deleted member 11852]

The delay could be good really, now they have a big title to launch PS5 with to counter Halo Infinite.

How do you know that there aren't already big launch games for PS5? The launch line up has not been announced yet. TLoU Part II is resolutely a PS4 game although I expect native PS5 enhancements ready for PS5 launch day.

But I'm also pretty sure Corona as a reason for delay is baloney. We know video game sales are skyrocketing on lockdown, and digital sales even moreso. At this point they could feasibly launch digital only and likely do well! Further, at least in the USA many stores that sell physical games are classified as "essential retail" and remain open (Wal Mart, Target, Costco etc).

I don't what it's like where you are, but here in the United Kingdom only essential stores are open. While that includes big supermarkets that do carry electronics, movies and games, their supply chain is not being used to carry non-essential products like games, only food, medicine and other essentials. So new games will not be reaching supermarkets and other points of mass distribution. Those shops closed a couple of weeks back. Even Amazon, you'll find non-essential products are facing extended delivery times ranging between weeks to months.

In a period when everybody is trying to drive internet usage down (PSN has gotten even slower, LoL, YouTube/Prime defaulting to 720p, Netflix slashing bitrates) incentivising millions and millions of people to download what it surely going to be a 40-70Gb game, seems contrary to that goal. You obviously don't want to stop everything, but massive survey on infrastructure like AAA game launches may get pushed back a little. I know other countries have taken a different response, but most of Europe is in social-distancing lockdown with supply chains only carrying essentials.

 

[Xbat]

I know other countries have taken a different response, but most of Europe is in social-distancing lockdown with supply chains only carrying essentials

We in complete lockdown, can't even walk the dog or go for a run.
A friend of mine bought a PS4 just for the lockdown and its now stuck at the depot because only essential goods are allowed to be delivered.

It's a bloody disaster financially. My business turnover went to zero over night and there's no end in sight yet.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

We in complete lockdown, can't even walk the dog or go for a run.
A friend of mine bought a PS4 just for the lockdown and its now stuck at the depot because only essential goods are allowed to be delivered.

You can go out in the UK, I did a food run about an hour ago and it's fine to leave the house for medical needs or for exercise once a day - social distancing protocol applies. In reality there is no enforcement, i.e. we don't have police and military on the streets challenging people and for the most part - at least where I live - people seen to be having responsibly. I'm grabbing stuff for neighbours if they need it.

Deliveries are still happening, DHL delivered my new iPad Pro last Wednesday and are due to deliver my new MacBook Air next Thursday. But where deliveries are by retailers (like Amazon), they are prioritising delivery of practical items. Depending on where you are, you can still get games and movies next day but my understanding is, that is behind the scenes this will only happen when there is capacity for non-essential items and vans are in your area.

It's a bloody disaster financially. My business turnover went to zero over night and there's no end in sight yet.

Sorry to hear this. Has your Government stepped in to provide financial relief? the UK has brought in a raft of measures but not all are immediate. Those self-employed and business owners are in a trickier position but banks are being subsidised in terms of bridging loads at virtually zero interest.

 

[Globalisateur]

We don't have hard numbers yet, but based on how well the game has being reviewed and all, are you having second thoughts with your prediction ?

 

[London Geezer]

Whatever the numbers are, one thing is for sure: Sony isn't going to change their formula any time soon, if ever. Which is a good thing.

 

[cheapchips]

TLOU2 is the best selling PS4 launch game in the UK, based on retail sales.

https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/...-2-is-sonys-biggest-playstation-4-launch-ever

 

[Deleted member 7537]

Better launch numbers than Spiderman. Bad day for the concern troll(s).

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Better launch numbers than Spiderman. Bad day for the concern troll(s).

This is really surprising to me.

Sure, The Last of Us is an IP with crazy critical acclaim and many accolades - it sucks to be Ghosts of Tsushima and Cyberpunk 2077 launching this year - but TLoU2 being an ultra-violent 18/R-rated game selling more than Spider-Man, which is a franchise I would have said has much wider appeal and obviously is saleable to that under-18s consumer base, is crazy.

edit: typos. Why do I only spot them when people quote me?

 

[London Geezer]

This is really surprising to me.

Sure, The Last of Us is an IP with crazy critical acclaim and made accolades - it sucks to Ghosts fo Tsushima and Cyberpunk 2077 launching this year - but TLoU2 being an ultraviolet 18/R-rated game selling more than Spider-Man, which is a franchise I would have said has much wider appeal and obviously is saleable to that under-18s consumer base, is crazy.

Think current figures only count physical sales. Who knows what the digital sales are like. Also let's not forget that a lot more people are at still home now, bored as hell.

 

[Globalisateur]

This is really surprising to me.

Sure, The Last of Us is an IP with crazy critical acclaim and many accolades - it sucks to be Ghosts of Tsushima and Cyberpunk 2077 launching this year - but TLoU2 being an ultra-violent 18/R-rated game selling more than Spider-Man, which is a franchise I would have said has much wider appeal and obviously is saleable to that under-18s consumer base, is crazy.

edit: typos. Why do I only spot them when people quote me?

Too late you can't change your ridiculous vote !

 

[Deleted member 7537]

4 million in 3 days.

For comparison, first 3 days:
- God of War: 3.1 million
- Spiderman: 3.3 million
. FFVII:R 3.5 million

https://twitter.com/x/status/1276485607955578882

Amazon having issues delivering the physical copies as well.

 

[BRiT]

Amazon having issues delivering the physical copies as well.

You'd think everyone would have had enough training from Death Stranding for this to not be an issue.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

4 million in 3 days.

For comparison, first 3 days:
- God of War: 3.1 million
- Spiderman: 3.3 million
. FFVII:R 3.5 million

For reference:

              3 day          lifetime
- God of War: 3.1M            > 10M
- Spiderman:  3.3M            > 13M
- FFVII:R     3.5M            >  9M

13-17M seems a shoe-in at this point if sales continue typical trajectories.

However, there's a caveat here. Early sales may be great, but maybe as people hear how the story is intense, people they'll choose lighter entertainments? The best selling movies of all time are fluff and generally not all that rated. Folk would rather watch a shiny Marvel flick than 'The Road' or somesuch ghastly downer. We'll have to see how that translates to games going into bleak territory.

 

[Deleted member 7537]

GoW reached 10 million? I didn't know it did that well (GoW3 sold around 5 millions copies). Around 12-13 million total sound about right, considering the original sold 7-8 million with a smaller userbase.