Demalion-
Hmm...I'm still not understanding your point about "exclusive". I'm not saying it is "simply available", but that it is available and that indications show is having a significant impact on the user base.
I wasn't making a point about exclusitivity, as I stated, it was in reference to DX9 availability.
Also, offering DX 9 shader support should not be significantly harder than offering DX 8 support...it can be a matter of enhancement, not a radical shift as utilizing shaders in the first place can be.
In terms of optimizations to avoid multi pass I can see, adding the shader routines that exploit DX9 will take time and won't be seen by the majority of end users. Publishers aren't too fond of paying out for things that won't be seen by the end user
Again, XBox->DX 8 (of DX->X Box) seems like what will actually be the case, why assume "nvidia exclusive" is facilitated? If they are using Cg, why can't they use DX 9 HLSL? Your comment doesn't answer either question AFAICS...something being ported from the XBox doesn't prevent it being implemented on non nVidia DX 8 capable cards.
Money. It is done. No need to do additional work. No increased funding required. No additional time spent at all.
OK, let's talk about claims to shareholders...IIRC, the wording for the shipping was indicating "expectation", and did not specify a relationship between where they were shipping to and relating that to the actual installed consumer base that would result.
nVidia does not make end consumer products. Their statements relate to shipments to OEMs as they always have. How long it will take all of those to move through the channel is another matter. Given that the statement was made as they were in the process of ramping up production odds are they had orders for the majority(if not all) of the 1.5Million chips they quoted.
I thought we were discussing DX 9 cards? That seems to be what is pertinent to this talk about exclusivity.
How are you putting those two together? Look at the numerous titles that only ran in 3D accelerated mode using Glide, whether it was a V1, V2, V3, V4 or V5. If you were to limit functionality to only DX9 level boards then you would run in to problems in terms of potential customer base. The exclusitivity factor is simply one in general for any particular IHV.
I'm not proposing these are absolutely conclusive, but I do propose them as indication that is pertinent to the assumptions being made. If you are going to make such claims in direct contradiction to these indications, I just ask that you provide some alternate figures and interpretation with some sort of logical progression, instead of just making a statement and using it for support as if the evaluation it presents is factual.
How about current
real numbers then?
ATI (ATYT ), now with an estimated 19% of the market, and Nvidia (NVDA ), with 32%, are the only major specialized makers of graphics chips to survive. (Intel (INTC ) holds a 28% share of the graphics-chips markets, and two smaller rivals own single-digit bites.)
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/apr2003/tc2003044_3712_tc024.htm
That is from one week ago.
Heh, ok this is support, but it is a pretty limited sampling, don't you agree?
I've been in to numerous B&Ms, seen lots of R300 boards on the shelves- just have only seen one R9500Pro despite being available for ~six months longer then the FX.
I've already covered short term benefits, but I also covered why it seems foolish to me for Valve, or any company focusing on large sales, to specifically target a group of customers to not support.
Those same users who are likely overjoyed with the Cat3.2s, right?
ATi craps on these same users we are talking about by breaking their titles of choice. How much good will should a company display when another company releases a driver that breaks
all of their games? Sure, they are all HL based titles, but that still is the entirety of Valve's library(which in terms of average titles sold is likely second behind only Blizzard in the PC market).
Ok...so it doesn't matter if you are selling, for example, 50% of what you could if that 50% is a large number? 80%? Let's run with that...if each % is a larger absolute number of sales, wouldn't that also mean that throwing away even 20% would be quite an impact? How does that make sense for Valve, then?
Factor potential sales against the amount of money that is being offered in exchange for the deal. If they figure that HL2 has a potential of say four millions units, take 19% off of that(we'll round) and say it's 800K. The retail price of the game is $50, $38 at the wholesale level and the publisher takes a ~$15 cut. That leaves you with $23 per so $18.4Million if they are factoring for hitting four million. Blockbuster status is reached at 1Million, which would only be $4.4Million. You look at your projected sales and then factor in the potential impact it is going to have on your customer base then figure out how much cash you want to see. If they are planning on 1Million units sold, then $5Million in cash could be enough to convince them to make such a deal. You look in MS's direction and they agree to throw in a clause that reduces the price of their chips from nV by $1 each to give them exclusive rights to HL2 and nV lands the deal without any cash out of pocket up front(MS may even be willing to take $.50, selling another 20Million XBoxs is within reason). I want to make it clear again that I am not saying this will happen or is even likely, simply why it could be plausible for MS/Valve/nVidia.
What is this "far more"? Is it based on market share figures from last year? If so, do you also think the release of the R300 has had no influence on the marketshare, even looking at the things I've mentioned? How about the future?
One year is nothing in the gfx market when looking at gaming. Two and a half to three years out is more reasonable, that was GF1/GF2/V5/Radeon era. ATi's markeshare has risen to 19%, nV has over 50% more of the market after ATi's increase.
Most of the rest of your post deals with why the parties would want to take part in the deal which I've already expanded on. I also didn't take into account those gamers who would be swayed to upgrade to nV instead of ATi for their next round or those very die hard who would toss out their boards that couldn't run the game.