BenSkywalker said:
I understand that, but I don't understand how that works into anything "exclusive" at all.
It was in reference to the DX9 availability more then anything. Most devs could easily be targetting a GF3 right now with anything close to completion(within the next year or so anyway). The availability of DX9 level boards is great to build installed base to convince developers to start using the functions, but with very few exceptions it isn't going to impact developers that the technology is simply available.
Hmm...I'm still not understanding your point about "exclusive". I'm not saying it is "simply available", but that it is available and that indications show is having a significant impact on the user base. Also, offering DX 9 shader support should not be significantly harder than offering DX 8 support...it can be a matter of enhancement, not a radical shift as utilizing shaders in the first place can be.
What is mystifying is what is preventing them from using DX 9 HLSL if they are using Cg.
A good deal of the games we are seeing that are utilizing DX8 level features have a XBox port(or are an XBox port). If it aint broke....
You are seamlessly connecting XBox to nvidia exclusive on the PC.
Again, XBox->DX 8 (of DX->X Box) seems like what will actually be the case, why assume "nvidia exclusive" is facilitated? If they are using Cg, why can't they use DX 9 HLSL? Your comment doesn't answer either question AFAICS...something being ported from the XBox doesn't prevent it being implemented on non nVidia DX 8 capable cards.
nVidia has said many things that haven't turned out to be true. They seem to be making a habit of it. My opinion of that statement, therefore, is that it doesn't mean much.
There is a huge difference between PR hype around a product release and financial claims to shareholders. If PR blows up you have egg on your face. Misleading investors can land you in jail.
OK, let's talk about claims to shareholders...IIRC, the wording for the shipping was indicating "expectation", and did not specify a relationship between where they were shipping to and relating that to the actual installed consumer base that would result. This reminds me a great deal of the shipping expectations stated to shareholders for the nv30 arriving last year, and of "performance leadership" claims to shareholders.
Anyways, I thought it quite pertinent to indications of future marketshare, and that seems to be what we're talking about, isn't it? BTW, the 9700 and 9500 cards aren't $300-$400, and Vince has been nice enough to link to comments earlier that seem to agree with my outlook on marketshare.
We have now entered the third quarter from when those numbers were taken. In the quarter following the one Vince listed the R9700 boards, which is what was being discussed, were in fact $300-$400.
I thought we were discussing DX 9 cards? That seems to be what is pertinent to this talk about exclusivity.
They were also at that price point last quarter right up until a few weeks prior to the end.
To address your stipulation,
Here is a post from the end of the 3rd quarter (early December).
They would not have any meaningful impact on marketshare.
OK, and your basis for this is...?
For the R9500 line, they were simply not distributed widely enough to make a major impact(even then, the ~$150-$200 market is far smaller then the sub $100 level, although it is much larger then the $300-$400 range).
Why do you make such statements so freely but without support?
I've proposed the 3dmark 2001 figures, addressed Vince's card figures, and looked at
trends that seem to indicate the direction that user perception is leading in. I have in mind announced OEM wins for ATI, slow erosion of nVidia hype, and the backlash nVidia earned with the nv30 launch.
I'm not proposing these are absolutely conclusive, but I do propose them as indication that is pertinent to the assumptions being made. If you are going to make such claims in direct contradiction to these indications, I just ask that you provide some alternate figures and interpretation with some sort of logical progression, instead of just making a statement and using it for support as if the evaluation it presents is factual.
To date I have seen as many R9500 boards in B&Ms as I have 5800Ultras(that would be one unit each
)
Heh, ok this is support, but it is a pretty limited sampling, don't you agree?
...
Features has nothing to do with what I'm talking about really(except noting current dev targets). I'm talking about financials. For the typical PC gamer pretty much anyone on this board could make it 'exclusive' to only one board with very little trouble. Sure, most of us would have no problem at all cracking/hacking it, but the typical PC gamer that runs the same drivers their board shipped with won't.
Yes, like Gunmetal. How smart was it for Yeti to do that? Does it make as much sense for a company like Valve whose profitability for the PC space seems so firmly tied to user good will and support? I've already covered short term benefits, but I also covered why it seems foolish to me for Valve, or any company focusing on large sales, to specifically target a group of customers to not support.
nVidia's marketshare level in the PC gaming market is such that developers making exclusive content for them is a much larger potential base then it was during the Glide days focusing on 3dfx hardware(not in percentage terms, but absolute numbers).
Ok...so it doesn't matter if you are selling, for example, 50% of what you could if that 50% is a large number? 80%? Let's run with that...if each % is a larger absolute number of sales, wouldn't that also mean that throwing away even 20% would be quite an impact? How does that make sense for Valve, then?
A simple example...what happens when a user runs a different game on their non nVidia card that looks a lot better than Half Life 2 does. Who will lose sales? All this relates to this idea of "exclusive" support.
My end in this discussion is focusing on the possible business and marketplace ramifications. There are far more nVidia using PC gamers then there are ATi using PC gamers.
What is this "far more"? Is it based on market share figures from last year? If so, do you also think the release of the R300 has had no influence on the marketshare, even looking at the things I've mentioned? How about the future?
nVidia is the core chip in the XBox and ports between the PC and the XBox are relatively simple.
I've expressed that I find the XBox->PC ineffectively linked to XBox->nvidia exclusive.
MS is trying to land as much exclusive content as they can.
Exclusive to X Box. Either they don't want it on the PC, or they want it on the PC using their own API, or atleast that is what seems reasonable to me.
MS and nVidia were having disputes over pricing and that could come up again. A business deal where MS covers exclusitivity status for a timed XBox release and slips in a clause here or there to help nVidia out on the condition of lower pricing is something I see MS more then willing to take part in, as is the case with nVidia.
That's pretty one way for nVidia.
Specifically for Valve, it does not make sense for them to participate given the source of their past success and the directions they seem to be indicating. I'm not arguing against the possibility, I'm arguing against this being described as the obvious good thing for Valve to do, and a "brilliant" strategy on nVidia's part.
Hmm..."pay money to developers to support us exclusively because our card is technically weaker than the competition". I just can't see the brilliance in that...it seems rather simple minded and obvious if you have the money.
MS's goal with the XBox in terms of commited capital, allows them enough to make developers offers they couldn't reasonably refuse.
You keep switch MS and nVidia arbitrarily based on your supposition. The only reason it would pan out is if MS stood to lose less money on X Box costs than they would from giving up PC space API control, and that only pans out in the short term. Seems a low price for them to sell that for. Since they
do have "adequate" funding, I don't see the incentive on their part to support nVidia's initiative for a short term lessening of impact.
So, I think it comes down to nVidia paying developers for this, not MS, and this having no inherent relationship to X Box implementation. I don't see why a strategy of using DX for PC, and then implement the DX 8 level functionality for porting to the X Box, doesn't maximize opportunity while still allowing sales from both markets.
I do not think that HL2 will be nVidia exclusive on the PC, although I can certainly see it being XBox exclusive on a timed basis at least. I do however see the logic behind it(nV exclusive) being possible taken from all angles involved in a deal. You could well end up with a win/win/win in terms of the companies that would be taking part. MS gets their prestige which drives marketshare and better pricing structure, Valve gets their truckloads of cash, and nVidia gets a weapon that is potentially far more lethal to ATi then any benchmark chart to John Q Gamer.
Perhaps you could my short term/long term post again,
here, and tell me where your opinion differs.
EDIT: Oh, take a look at
this thread. I think it is pertinent, especially from the linked post downwards.