But is is funny something so useful was forget because it was used before in realtime but never released in any games by Michael Bunnel and it was the defacto method for GI before pathtracing. I think the patent about surfel is abandoned maybe due to the fact everyone use pathtracing in offline rendering.
The remarkable (but forgotten) idea from Bunnell was about replacing visibility tern with an approximation from a shadowing term. This idea is not really limited to surfels - i also tried it with a volume grid of probes for example, and it works for that too.
The other related method is using radiance cache to get infinite bounces for free (also called radiosity method). The method requires some form of finite elements for the cache, but again works with surfels, volume probes, or whatever else. And it is standard now in all realtime methods which came up after RTX introduction.
Curiously it was mostly ignored before, although Bunnell used it. I think there were some fancy VCT techniques which did it too. And Sonic Ethers Minecraft Mod also used such caching, the official RT port as well.
Classical Path Tracing can not do this. Which is why i think it will never become the standard lighting solutions for games. It's just inefficient to recalculate everything from scratch in each frame.
But i'm convinced about PT with a probe cache to shorten paths. Still feels expensive, but Exodus demonstrates it works already now, being basically Quake2RTX + DDGI cache.
What’s clear is that native 4K will not be a thing this generation.
Like all probe solutions it can be independent from resolution. If there is a problem, they can just reduce surfel density but still keep render resolution high. Won't look as good ofc., but helps with reducing RT cost.
Though, that's not clearly an advantage for probe solutions. Because reducing render resolution (e.g. handhelds) does not automatically give you a perf. win for GI on the other hand. And achieving dynamic probe resolution may be harder than just changing a render target.
Increasing lag is another option to scale probe solutions.