By the letter of the law, Vettel was guilty.
He either crowded another driver off the circuit - Hamilton into the wall on the exit of Turn Four, to the point where the Mercedes driver had to anchor on the brakes to avoid a collision.
Or, as his defence said, his natural momentum took him across the full width of the circuit. But in that case he is guilty of rejoining the circuit in an unsafe manner, as he was not in full control of his car, to the extent that he ran Hamilton off the road in an unsafe manner.
One of these scenarios has to be correct.
If he was forced to run all the way into Hamilton, that's not safe. If he wasn't, then he deliberately did it, and that's not fair and deserves a penalty.
You can't have it both ways, and you need to have it both ways to avoid the penalty here.
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Vettel's incident was almost a carbon copy of
Max Verstappen's with Kimi Raikkonen at the final chicane in Japan last year, just 11 races ago.
In Japan, Verstappen locked up under pressure from the Finn, cut the corner, and in rejoining he forced Raikkonen off and kept the place.
The Red Bull driver picked up a five-second penalty, and few complained about it afterwards. The general reaction was that Verstappen was too aggressive and deserved it. And I can guarantee you the Ferrari camp would have agreed with that penalty at the time.
In fact,
Vettel said so publicly - stating that the driver in Raikkonen's position should not always have to take avoiding action.
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In my opinion Vettel could have given Hamilton space on the exit of Turn Four. I don't think that his car did end up completely on the right-hand side of the track because of its natural momentum.
He had a huge snap of oversteer on corner entry, causing him to go off onto the grass.
Then another smaller oversteer as he rejoins the circuit, another small twitch on the wheel which was neither here nor there, and then he continues to veer towards the right, making no concerted effort to turn left, following his line around the corner and leaving his rival no space on his outside.
It's a move I can completely understand. I - and most former drivers - would have done the same. It's a defensive instinct to try and hold your position in a moment of panic.
But the fact that others would have done the same doesn't make it acceptable.
People should also bear in mind that the stewards have a lot more data to use in terms of speeds, camera angles and throttle/brake traces than everybody else. It doesn't mean they always get it right but here I believe that data could be significant.
They interpreted it to mean that Vettel did not need to keep moving right, that he could have made another choice, and that was decisive in the penalty being awarded.