I think he'll stay at Renault unless something weird happens wrt. to Räikkönen at Ferrari (they fire him because he's been sucking a bit lately in race conditions) or Honda somehow manages to convince Alonso that they are awesome next season (and they give him huge wads of cash or something).
If they had any intentions on firing him, I doubt they would have made a new 2 year contract with him 2 races ago [wink]