Feasibility of an upgradeable or forwards compatible console *spawn*

[function]

I just had a thought how to "beat" the supposedly inevitable iterative hardware model. IMO all you have to do is stick to a strict 5 year cycle.

Technology doesn't always provide the necessary advances on an arbitrary timescale. Sticking to a 5 year schedule may result in you missing out on technology that would render you uncompetitive with someone who would deliver just a few months later.

Edit: Dammit, DSoup!

 

[upnorthsox]

I just had a thought how to "beat" the supposedly inevitable iterative hardware model. IMO all you have to do is stick to a strict 5 year cycle.

Lets take PS4.5 now. Lets say MS releases in winter of 2018, exactly 5 years after Xbox One, the "Xbox Two". Which at least attempts to be a traditional console generation leap.

To me it takes the sails out of Ps4.5 in so many ways. It'll be significantly more powerful one assumes. Worse, the Ps4.5 will still be shackled to PS4/XBO ports, by Sony's own decree, making the paper spec discrepancy much worse on a screen.

The Ps4.5 is supposedly slated for Q1 17, but I would bet money it slips off that, like everything in video games. How far? Who knows, but I'd guess Q3 2017 maybe. Either way, you can start hyping the Xbox 2 in 2018, and hype of power destroys we know from PS2 v Dreamcast.

People will wonder "why should I buy this Ps4 iteration when better is right around the corner?" Worse, joe average will not be seeing much in the way of graphical differences with Ps4.5, still shackled to last gen.

The key to this thinking is I expect the platform holders will not release their "iterations" faster than every ~3 years. A 5 year cycle would really destroy that IMO.

However I do realize phones release a brand new model every year. So in theory it can be done. Again, a 5 year cycle vs a yearly iterated console though, well I'm not so sure who wins in the consumer mind. The yearly iterated console may have more power most years, but you'll never see it onscreen anyway, as it will be forever shackled to the past. It would also mean the yearly console will essentially have a forever locked price point at a high level.

But yeah, stop being lazy and do timely 5 year cycles and I think at the least you take a lot of the wind out of console iterations, if not destroy them entirely.

IMO it's the exact opposite of your contention. This move by Sony puts MS in the position of few/bad options. What can MS do? Right now they're under the same chip/node constraints as Sony so they can either match the Neo with an Xbox two, go with a much bigger die which will cost more/lose more money, or go bleeding edge with a process (10nm) that isn't out yet and will still likely only give you a 2x boost over the Neo at a higher cost and effectively truncating the Xbox One. In the meantime, MS still has to get to Winter 2018 without XBO sales cratering all the while knowing that Sony can wait a year or more to respond with a better design.....

Probably the best case for the Neo is what it does to any plans for the Xbox and assures that Sony has positioned themselves well if the XBO is dropped prematurely.

 

[iroboto]

@Rangers beating the inevitable hardware model is something that MS has been doing for the last 8 months. Unify the software stack so that games run on any hardware configuration is indeed the way you beat the inevitable iterative hardware model. I mean I thought this entire thread was a discussion about exactly that.
It's why they've been pushing UWP
it's why they've been pushing for W10 on all their devices as their last OS
it's why they've all XBO peripherals would be forward compatible to both PC and future consoles
ti's why they've been pushing DX12 as their new base platform that can run on any major hardware configuration

All these things that MS has been doing is to get around hardware. Microsofts response to Sony is to grow their W10 store. Profits from software outweigh hardware by a massive amount, and the console is only a platform for that software to be sold. If they can convince users to buy off the W10 store instead, MS will be reaching their goals.

Their hardware efforts (despite what Sony does) should help align with this strategy. So whatever MS is doing we can rest assured that it will run W10 games, run DX12, run peripherals that we own today, and improve on cross purchasing/anything that would sell cloud as a service - so anything that would entice more people to buy into XBLG.

 

[function]

Personally I don't see why why releasing Neo at the end of this year is good for Sony, but releasing (potentially) next year for MS would be bad. They could both pull off successful hardware launches.

A year later would mean better yields on 14nm (so potentially a more complex chip), the option of Zen to massively increase CPU performance, HBM2 and GDDR5X moving off the drawing board and into products, and fast and sizeable SSD caches becoming practical and cost effective. It's a veritable candy store of new technologies becoming available that could greatly increase performance from storage up.

There's also no reason that MS have to ditch X1 as their entry level product - as iroboto says, they're bringing W10, UWP, DX12 to X1.

 

[upnorthsox]

@iroboto In Other Words, Microsoft's best strategy to compete with Sony on hardware is to not compete. Makes sense, but a hard pill to swallow.

 

[upnorthsox]

Personally I don't see why why releasing Neo at the end of this year is good for Sony, but releasing (potentially) next year for MS would be bad. They could both pull off successful hardware launches.

A year later would mean better yields on 14nm (so potentially a more complex chip), the option of Zen to massively increase CPU performance, HBM2 and GDDR5X moving off the drawing board and into products, and fast and sizeable SSD caches becoming practical and cost effective. It's a veritable candy store of new technologies becoming available that could greatly increase performance from storage up.

There's also no reason that MS have to ditch X1 as their entry level product - as iroboto says, they're bringing W10, UWP, DX12 to X1.

It's not bad per se, it just doesn't accomplish a lot. And if it's a true gen change (Xbox Two) and you haven't but any distance between you and your competition then it's not a particularly good move.

 

[function]

@iroboto In Other Words, Microsoft's best strategy to compete with Sony on hardware is to not compete. Makes sense, but a hard pill to swallow.

Their best strategy is to make hardware that supports their vision for their software and their sales platform.

MS's strategy requires hardware in key areas, and consoles is most definitely one of them, imo.

 

[upnorthsox]

Their best strategy is to make hardware that supports their vision for their software and their sales platform.

MS's strategy requires hardware in key areas, and consoles is most definitely one of them, imo.

Ok.....but I don't see where that requires them competing with Sony on hardware.

 

[Niebotskick]

Sources familiar with Microsoft's Xbox plans have revealed to The Verge that the company has been testing a variety of prototype Xbox devices. Some of the prototypes have been tested with upgraded components you'd use to improve the performance of a PC gaming rig. It's not clear if and when Microsoft intends to launch an upgraded Xbox One, but Phil Spencer has already hinted the company will "come out with new hardware capability during a generation" that supports existing and future titles. A new wireless chip could be just a small part of the optional hardware upgrades to the Xbox One that Microsoft is planning.

http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/19/11457546/xbox-one-hardware-upgrade-rumors

 

[Deleted member 11852]

http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/19/11457546/xbox-one-hardware-upgrade-rumors

I can't see any reason that whatever APU AMD are designing for PS4 Neo couldn't be used in a Xbox One Neo either. I think PS4 Neo will be make or break for Microsoft in that it'll force Microsoft's hand to double down on new console hardware or just decide it's time to call it quite and put a 'console' kiosk mode into Windows 10 that provides a console-like experience without ever booting into desktop Windows. This would actually suit me just fine.

 

[Michellstar]

Yep, Ms has to ensure from now on, that every game produced by them it´s playable on every W10 device and
making the ecosystem friendly towards gamers, they are not there at the moment (UWP troubles)

The final goal it´s to grow the number of customers tied to W10 and its store, call them xbox customers if you want, it´s their brand for gaming.

But, in the other hand, if they want to stay relevant in gaming, they don´t have to be left behind in the console space, It´s still the biggest pie in revenue.

So I expect an Xbox Ultra not too far from PS4Neo release.

I´m prepared for disappointment though

 

[Jwm]

How does VR play into any of these decisions do you think, along with 4k? (I am eyeing a really sexy laser 4k projector)

I always felt Ps4 and X1 were just a tab bit early, but the media was maybe calling for the death of the generation? I personally, had hoped both companies would have waited another year (well two by now looking at AMD with HBM) to get some other chips under the hood.

Sorry - been really busy with things, so my apologies for not saying "Hi" more often or fully reading this thread. Sadly back to work, have fun all!!

Spoiler

Am I allowed to say but MrX said X1 had super chips with layers of future tech that would be unlocked by DX14.2 and it will crush PS4&5!!??

 

[iroboto]

Ok.....but I don't see where that requires them competing with Sony on hardware.

They're competing for the same market share, but for different reasons it looks like; with slightly different approaches. I would say that Sony sells hardware for the sake of selling more hardware. This is an Apple style model. They want you to buy a PS4 to buy other Sony products as that is their core business. _however_ - they must see by now that the profits from software largely outweigh their hardware profits.

MS sells hardware to get people locked into their software ecosystem. The more devices W10 devices that people use the more likely the individuals are likely to lock up more in subscription services. Much like how the iPad and iTouch are very much entrance devices for youth to get into Apple products, Xbox could very well be their entrance device. Lock kids up with games, but their console when attached to keyboard and mouse can do everything else they want as well, i.e. Office 365 etc. That's a clean win for MS, because honestly, they don't care how you use Office 365, just as long as you buy it.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

MS sells hardware to get people locked into their software ecosystem.

Ecosystem lock-in is what everybody wants because it's a sound strategy to retain consumers. The more a person invests in an ecosystem, the bigger tangible and/or perceived loss in moving somewhere else - unless your content is platform agnostic. Unfortunately it's as consumer hostile as it is consumer friendly.

Look at WindowsPhone which basically had no chance to gain significant market share because iOS and Android are far too entrenched. Those who invest heavily in software, which are the types of users you want because they spend money, are already heavily invested in their current platform.

Ecosystem lock-in makes market disruption incredibly difficult.

 

[Rangers]

Well, and in 2018 you will hear of the PS5 who arrive next… So no Xbox Two buy…But dam Xbox Three arrived!! No, it's PS5.5… Oh my god 8K VR arrived I'm neeeeedddd!!!

Didn't Kaz/Shu/somebody hint PS5 may never exist? The thought was Sony may go iteration only. Anyways, so Sony will ditch all the new PS4.5 owners they just sold a PS4.5 and told them they needed it, just like that? Their will be much consumer anger...

Generation/iteration can be beaten by the 5 year model imo, as well as iteration only.

I did think of one drawback, the generation model has a clean dividing line where some are left behind. The iteration model I guess, in theory, not so much, people are not hard left behind, like phones. Still, last gen console typically remain viable for about 2 years after a new one (think 360/PS3), Joe Average can still go buy his Madden and Fifa 1-2 years after the 5 year cycle on his last gen box, so that softens the landing I guess.

 

[Rangers]

Technology doesn't always provide the necessary advances on an arbitrary timescale. Sticking to a 5 year schedule may result in you missing out on technology that would render you uncompetitive with someone who would deliver just a few months later.

Edit: Dammit, DSoup!

Ehh, technology is incremental, there are never any giant leaps really. This reminds me of people who think they need to wait for the next Intel/Nvidia thing. Almost never wise IMO.

The closest recently may be lets say HBM, but even that wasn't. It too was/is basically incremental over some ramped up GDDR5 in Nvidia cards. Nvidia stayed on GDDR5 and outsold AMD like always.

 

[function]

Ehh, technology is incremental, there are never any giant leaps really. This reminds me of people who think they need to wait for the next Intel/Nvidia thing. Almost never wise IMO.

The closest recently may be lets say HBM, but even that wasn't. It too was/is basically incremental over some ramped up GDDR5 in Nvidia cards. Nvidia stayed on GDDR5 and outsold AMD like always.

You may choose to label all technological advances as incremental, but something like a node transition or going from Jaguar to Zen can in a matter of weeks bring about changes that are more radical than years worth of tinkering with the same architecture on the same nodes.

When a product has to last 5 ~ 10 years being on the wrong side of a major shift will hurt you for far longer than on a PC graphics card.

 

[Rangers]

Jaguar to Zen might be a decent size one, but still, the CPU isn't that important altogether. I could see consoles going with ARM CPU next time, to illustrate.This is only really relevant because consoles are apparently stuck with AMD. In the wider pantheon Zen will be at best an increment over what Intel already has.

And we havent seen Zen to see how it might fit with consoles. In a console it may be pretty nerfed as Jaguar just uses a few watts. May restricted to 4 cores for example instead of 8 jag's.

I will probably take some jag's and a better GPU over Zen's and a lesser GPU.

 

[Rangers]

Yep, Ms has to ensure from now on, that every game produced by them it´s playable on every W10 device and
making the ecosystem friendly towards gamers, they are not there at the moment (UWP troubles)

The final goal it´s to grow the number of customers tied to W10 and its store, call them xbox customers if you want, it´s their brand for gaming.

But, in the other hand, if they want to stay relevant in gaming, they don´t have to be left behind in the console space, It´s still the biggest pie in revenue.

So I expect an Xbox Ultra not too far from PS4Neo release.

I´m prepared for disappointment though

What seems clear is Phil Spencer doesn't want any small leaps. I dont know exactly what that means. IMO these are the main choices:

A) An iterative Xbox, but with lots of power

B) Xbox 2 (new generation, not iteration) is inbound relatively soon.

 

[function]

Jaguar to Zen might be a decent size one, but still, the CPU isn't that important altogether. I could see consoles going with ARM CPU next time, to illustrate.This is only really relevant because consoles are apparently stuck with AMD. In the wider pantheon Zen will be at best an increment over what Intel already has.

And we havent seen Zen to see how it might fit with consoles. In a console it may be pretty nerfed as Jaguar just uses a few watts. May restricted to 4 cores for example instead of 8 jag's.

Intel isn't an option for MSonyTendo tho, so it terms of what's available to go into battle with it's AMD or AMD.

4 Zen cores will likely handily beat 8 Jaguar cores, while alleviating the issues from accessing L2 across clusters. So faster while also being easier to work with. Zen is going into AMDs next gen APUs, so they clearly see it as a winner at laptop power levels.

I will probably take some jag's and a better GPU over Zen's and a lesser GPU.

I'll take whatever's better for high frame rates. Though ... it's kind of sad that 60 fps is seen as being "high" instead of "normal".

What seems clear is Phil Spencer doesn't want any small leaps. I dont know exactly what that means. IMO these are the main choices:

A) An iterative Xbox, but with lots of power

B) Xbox 2 (new generation, not iteration) is inbound relatively soon.

Once you have back and forwards compatibility A and B pretty much become the same thing. Continuous evolution where you take advantage of new technologies when they become available would be my ideal choice at this point in life.