Perception of the keynote seems to be extremely clouded by disappointment in a lack of 'surprise announcements', despite the fact that MS offered two very large ones.
I would have thought that the discussion on this forum would be more aligned to analysis of the strategy of MS.
Such as the fact that their entire focus has been on being the first console to a 10m installed base (accomplished) and owning the 2007 holiday season.
MS made a very good case in their keynote that they offer an experience available this holiday season that consumers can't get anywhere else.
Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the two main parts of the MS keynote: the agreement with Disney and expanding Live Marketplace globally, confuses me.
MS entered the console market almost for the sole purpose of establishing Live Marketplace and becoming the distributor for digital content to the living room.
This keynote established that they are well on their way to accomplishing that task, and Sony really needs to step up if they want to compete with MS for ownership of the living room.
I also still don't understand the belief that MS would respond to Sony's reshuffling of their inventory with a price drop.
Maybe if Sony announces a price drop, MS might feel obliged to follow suit. But as the case stands, the PS3 launched at $499 and $599 and is currently $499 and $599.
As far as being critical of the keynote:
The Rock Band thing was the most horrible thing I've witnessed. I had to change the channel, I couldn't stand it. I would have preferred to listen to fingernails on a chalk board. Assassin's Creed look nifty in parts, and extremely buggy in others. This might be a case of the game simply being too ambitious, but I'm not sure.
Reggie Bush was paid too much. A bit of rehearsal might have helped. And they couldn't figure out a better way to demonstrate the newest version of Madden than the ten year old 'money play' of running a weakside toss when the defense overloads and blitzes to the strong side? Practice some plays that will show new animations or something.
Who thought the Halo3 addition Xbox was a good idea? I'll take Simpsons one instead, thank you. And it doesn't even come with Halo3?
But overall, MS demonstrated they have the biggest installed base, their installed base spends the most money on games, their installed base spends a great deal of money in the Live Marketplace, they have the best lineup for the holiday season, they are expanding the Marketplace globally, and you can now stream Disney movies into your living room for your children whenever you want.
How the keynote could be considered any worse than 'solid' is beyond me.
They also raised the bar very high in the non-gaming aspects of the console, which of course is their entire business plan.
I would like to offer my analysis of Microsoft's strategy and I hope I don't sound too harsh:
That they accomplished being the first of the next gen or rather current gen consoles to reach a "10m installed base" can be questionable due to the high failiure rate and personal opinion I can offer. Basically I feel that with the XBox 360's failiure rate and what is known (those who have gone to Microsoft for a refurb) and what is unknown (those who gave up and ended up buying another console after throwing away the dead)
And also that I personally feel that with RRoD consoles being sent back to MS, the ones that were not able to be fixed and therefore had to be replaced with a new to the customer refurb console counts as a shipped console and can be added to the number of consoles shipped (the install base number you are quoting and many "official" sources are quoting)
Basically I feel that the actuall install base, the XBox 360 owners that actually have a console in their home is much lower than the alleged inflated official shipped number of 11.x million consoles.
MS Xbox 360 has a strong games line up thanks to being available since 2005 and finally having Halo 3 coming in 11 or so weeks and the massive media hype that will surround that game alone is guaranteed to have at least 7 to 8 million copies sold by the end of this year, if not higher and set a new record for most copies of a game sold as I am sure that at minimum in the USA at least 7 million will buy the game and be on XBL and add the hype to bring in at least 4 to 5 million copies along with new consoles sold or much, much higher but that is just my opinion in looking back at what happened with Halo 2 and knowing that things have changed and MS is in the lead as they can claim to be.
As for the Disney and other movie DL videos, I personally do not care or see any use in that but I do remember that Microsoft stated prior to the XBox 360 launch that they wanted their console to be the next "ipod" or hot device must have, but seriously most Disney movies are on DVDs already, alot of movies are on DVD and the new formats and all I see of this DL media content is that people may buy this crap just to waste "disposable income" but hey it may be huge.
As for ownership of the living room, this one is tough, anything can happen and this holiday will prove interesting, I am hoping that consumers who buy these consoles are really doing it for games, movies and online play, but more than that and its hard to see the point in spending additional money.
Microsoft, even with their current RRoD problems should not lower the price of their console this year as a response to Sony's recent reshuffling due to the fact that Halo 3 alone despite what we all can guess is going to be the game of 2007 accross all platforms, unless it is not so and that is unlikely.
Basically I feel that even if the new "falcon 65nm" consoles get released this year and they also suffer from RRoD failiures and disc scratching that Halo 3 alone will decide the year and not a console failiure but I could be wrong too.
Rock Band looks like a nice idea but just like the famous or is that infamous rock bands, if people start screwing around it is just not going to be fun and will turn into a nightmare, then again remember that this game will get sequels...
Assassin's creed reminded me of what a near true Batman game or wall crawling superhero game could be but back on topic, yeah I agree but we will have to wait and see the game released to see if it turns into a boring game or a letdown or a sleeper, etc.
They will always have some overpaid jockstrap showcasing a videogame and trash talk, some people love their celebrities, so the cheese cannot be avoided there.
Ya that H3 edition Xb360 could have looked alot better if it really stood out of just a paint job and had something like a lunch box style sculpt of the Halo characters, but hey they could have an Elite version since there are Elites in the game.
Other than that I really wanted to know about upcoming games, like stuff to expect in the first half of 2008 but the new E3 served its purpose.
I really feel that this new E3 format is a move in the right direction, the audience should be more professional while watching trailers during the conference as they are supposed to be using their brains to analyse what is being presented to them and not fall into company/game ego pleasing hype zombie mode.
Having said that, Halo 3 really did not look as impressive as that pre pre alpha Killzone 2 trailer mainly because we know that XBox 360 contains monster tech chips inside and so far the Halo 3 game does not look that dramatically different than what we played in Halo 2 on the old XBox 1. Maybe if there were elaborate smoke effects and enviroment changing/destruction effects present but oh well we will have to judge once the game is finally out or...
Bungie purposely held back for the sake of knowing already that the game will sell reguardless and that they really don't have to work as hard as before since MS has the market this time and Halo 2 upped the fanbase of their game so they went the safe route to not anger fans.
RARE not showing Banjo 3 was weird given that the Stamper bros are no longer with RARE, reguardless it was weird, maybe Microsoft is planning another event in the upcoming E for All or they just feel that Banjo could have gotten lost in the Halo 3 sales deluge that is very possible to happen later this year.
Over all my disappointment was that there was no word on MechAssault 3 or sequels, then again I knew that this year was all about Halo 3 so maybe Microsoft knows that and they prefer to wait till 2008 to reveal anything further but yeah currently Halo 3 is such a monster that the only way it can fail is if fans lose interest ie, Halo fanship collapses and that is not likely to happen but that it affected Sony is evident in Haze and UT being on PS3 this year, even CoD4 faces the danger of being forgotten or compared to Halo 3 this year...
I mean hell I fear that even Kojima san personally delayed MGS4 for that same fear.
I personally am waiting to see how the RARE franchises start getting revisited on XBox 360 in seeing if its true that Killer Instinct series will ever return, Battletoads, etc so Banjo will pretty much be the first salvo.
Finally its not over yet, now we have to wait for TGS07, in the mean time I feel that E for All is useless and that the new, quieter E3 should be the standard from now on as it is supposed to be about the games and not about the crowd going wild or a bunch of strippers dressed as booth babes embarrasing/degrading the game industry and the people who attend these events.