Does PSP take the shine off next year's Xbox 2 launch?

[one]

On a simpler note, the short term success or failure of any of the next gen consoles will be due to one thing, and one thing only: games. If Xenon ships with better first party titles than PS3, then it will be a success. I don't think which console is more powerful will matter that much because, as others have stated, they will all be pretty close anyway. Microsoft wants to turn this into a software war, rather than a hardware war. Microsoft is already taking steps to make it easier for PC game developers to create titles for the XBox via XNA technology.

Also, Microsoft is aiming for the 18 - 35 yr old demographic. This demographic typically is employed with some disposable income. Therefore, I think it is resonable that someone from this demographic can and probably will purchase multiple devices to suit his/her tastes.

Mind you pointing out what does it differ from the current generation of Xbox? :?

The Xbox is already way easier and cheaper to develop. The Xbox is a superior piece of hardware. There are many 18 - 35 year old people who buy a PS2 and an Xbox now. An Xbox hardware is already cheaper than others as it's sold with many game bundles. The only thing it lacks is games. So it's already a software war in this generation.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

The Dreamcast and Saturn are anomalies, because they didn't have the right software mix. Why? Not enough western dev support ie. EA. The Genesis and PS2 both benefitted from launching before their eventual competitors (Nintendo, and Nintendo/MS respectively).

Personally, I think that MS has rightly determined the true bottleneck next generation and it isn't primarily hardware. Sure you need new and powerful hardware to deliver shorter load times and better/cleaner visuals, but art assets and code complexity will determine the quality of games for the most part.

If FFXII, MGS3 and GT4 are shipping in holiday of 2004, it's impossible for Sony to have FFXIII, MGS4 and GT5 before holiday of 2007. Two years for MS to bring out other games before Sony's heavy hitters is a long time. Exploiting the powerful and complicated PS3 hardware is going to take time.

By the time Sony gets the big guns out, Xenon will have been in production for two years and will be relatively cheap to manufacture compared to the PS3. MS can aim for 2009 for Xbox 3, shortening the lifecycle to 4 years, but with good enough software support that it doesn't matter to most consumers. ie. support the hardware with games for 5 years, but bring out new hardware every 4 years.

This is the ideal way to mess with Sony's inhouse hardware development strategy and their investments in the fab business. PS3 will only end up being out for 3 years before better hardware is on the market and if MS is successful in bleeding off marketshare, there is no way that Sony will be able to recoup its investment in foundries.

The strategy isn't without risks as many will soon point out: maybe no one will care about Xenon, maybe Sony brand power is so enormous that MS can't possibly do anything about it, maybe the Xenon software (Half-Life 2, Bioware RPG, Perfect Dark Zero, and Project Gotham Racing 3) available in the first 2 years won't be enough for consumers to go Xenon instead of waiting for Sony's big software hitters.

There are risks, but I think this strategy is the right one to take: shorten the life-cycle to 4 years, concentrate on software, reduce code complexity. Imagine the Gamecube with good 3rd party support, MS marketing, solid mature content, better branding, and a design that appeals to young adults and this is what MS is going for. Low-cost hardware with high-quality software, but is also out in a timely fashion (unlike Nintendo 1st party).

PSP is irrelevant to Xenon success.

Microsoft learned a lot from Sony this generation, but they also learned alot from Nintendo as well. If the Cube had a better case design, better 3rd party support, and didn't have the Nintendo kiddy image to contend with, it would probably have sold 30 million units by now. Good economical hardware can keep you competitive. Software and branding/mindshare are everything.

I think a myth that alot of people have bought into is that people passed on DC for superior PS2 hardware. I don't think this was a widespread phenonemon. My gaming friends all gave the DC a fair chance. They liked the price tag. They didn't care for the games. They thought Shenmue and Skies of Arcadia were goofy. They didn't get a PS2 right away either, but when they saw SSX, GTA3, and Baldur's Gate, they jumped right onboard the Sony bandwagon. The same friends didn't care about Xbox either, or that it was 3x more powerful than PS2, but when they saw Halo they had to have one.

Games. That's what it's all about. It's about 50% of the battle. 40% is marketing and branding. Technology is really only about 10% of the equation unless there are major deficiencies, and there won't be. Xenon games will look great and almost as good as PS3 games on 90% of the TVs that consumers own.

If Xenon has the games people want to play, they won't care about the lack of hard drive or Blu-Ray or any of those other intellectual excercises. MS is already in the process of selling everyone on "software is king" and de-emphasizing hardware. They know already that PS3 is going to be more powerful with more features. But they also know that it will always cost $100-$150 more to produce a PS3 than a Xenon unit if MS just sticks with DVD-9 and Sony includes a Blu-Ray drive. That's a pretty big advantage that a lot of people tend to ignore.

 

[Spidermate]

Hmm... Sony is questionably like that. Nintendo is not like that at all. Oh well. Different opinions, I guess.

If you mean vague with what they say, then I agree. But, if you mean something else, well, um...I guess you mean something else. But, I think that maybe you are underestimate Sony. Yes, we know that Microsoft has a lot of money to throw around (Sony has that to an extent), but Microsoft's cash inflow lacks what Sony has, experience in a field such as this kind. That does not mean that Microsoft will fail or anything to that height, but I am pointing out to you that Sony is far from a pushover in this game, no matter how easy Microsoft may make it seem. For instance, when Microsoft brought up XNA, I bet you thought that was the end. But, then later, we see Sony coming up with something almost identical. The only difference was, they went through someone else to get it. It's kinda like brains for brawn. Which is why I don't underestimate neither side. The both have their own weaknesses and strengths.

 

[Spidermate]

Johnny Awesome, who's to say the PS3 will be hard to program for: you? How do you know this? Did this current gen tell you....out of all the others? Microsoft is looking to strengthen their software, but so is Sony.

 

[one]

If FFXII, MGS3 and GT4 are shipping in holiday of 2004, it's impossible for Sony to have FFXIII, MGS4 and GT5 before holiday of 2007. Two years for MS to bring out other games before Sony's heavy hitters is a long time. Exploiting the powerful and complicated PS3 hardware is going to take time.

It's an oxymoron. Why do you need to exploit it to the max when it's already more powerful? MGS2 sold well before MGS3 tries to exploit the PS2 strength to the max. Moreover PS3 may get a smash hit like Halo on the launch, if it launchs later than Xenon. According to the projected PS3 schedule, at the TGS of Sep. 2005, it'll have playable titles displayed.

PSP is irrelevant to Xenon success.

Why? There should be those wait-and-see people who avoid the launch except for early adaptors. The main audience of the current Xbox will wait too as they have no big frustration over the hardware strength of the current Xbox. In the holiday season 2005, PSP will be under $200 with a memstick and Xenon can't be released under $200. PSP will have better game titles by then, if not Pokemon-like blockbuster. And you can buy a NDS even cheaper. If Xenon has the backward compatibility things may be different, but it's unlikely.

But they also know that it will always cost $100-$150 more to produce a PS3 than a Xenon unit if MS just sticks with DVD-9 and Sony includes a Blu-Ray drive. That's a pretty big advantage that a lot of people tend to ignore.

It always comes to it -

Microsoft -> Buy DVD drives from others
Sony -> Manufacture Blu-ray drives, in quite a large volume

Sony has IP to build those drives. Why does it cost so much more than buying DVD drives?

 

[PC-Engine]

Xenon will have a system seller at launch that can't be played on any other console so it'll be difficult to pass up. PSP is going to have little effect on Xenon sales.

 

[rabidrabbit]

Xenon will have a system seller at launch that can't be played on any other console so it'll be difficult to pass up. PSP is going to have little effect on Xenon sales.

Didn't Bungie say they are not doing another Halo after 2?
What will the system seller be?

About every console thus far has had an "exclusive system seller" at launch, how much has it sold systems is another matter.

Halo sold xboxes by itself, but not enough to significantly affect PS2 sales.

Will PSP with a "system seller" affect xbox2 sales?
Will xbox2 with "system seller" affect PSP sales?
Will "xbox2 with a system seller" sales be affected by "PSP with a system seller"
Will "PSP with a system seller" sales be affected by "xbox2 with a system seller"?

Which question will you answer "Yes" and which "No"?
My row would be: Y, Y, Y, Y

The real question is which one will have more effect

 

[PC-Engine]

First of all this thread is about PSP and Xenon so it's down to PSP having a system seller at Xenon's launch.

I don't see any system sellers for a portable unless it's games like what you find on NDS which you can only play on NDS. PSP games are just watered down console games. The only thing that might affect Xenon is a PSP price drop which I highly doubt.

 

[Magnum PI]

It's probably a relatively easy matter to introduce a gaming console that also incorporates all of the technologies you list - once you have the installed base.

it would be easy to do but the device wouldn't be convenient at all.
the gaming functionnality should be independant with the other ones, typically i don't want to have to stop gaming because someone in my household want to watch a recorded show or watch some video on demand...

you surely don't want functionnality that interefere each other in the same device. like a microwave / freeze combo.. that would be silly..

you wan't to group functionnalities that are compatible, and the console would stay primarily a gaming device with some multimedia capabilities (ie: dvd player)

and there are other things that would prevent a console being that device: when i was talking about VoIP i wasn't not talking about internet phone à la skype, but something like POTS using ADSL, you don't use internet. your provider is typically a phone operator and he has to own the terminal so he will lend it to you and it remains his property.. as he have to support its cost he won't lend a terminal with the performance of a contemporary console, it will have much less processing power, RAM etc.. in order to keep the bill of materials as low as possible. and the provider may want to be able to do what he wants with his terminal and its software, like modifying, and won't probably be happy with a 5 years lifecycle, as he want to be able to upgrade it in order to remain competitive. for example the french provider free made 3 important revision of its terminal in about two years of existence. only the last one have adsl2+ capability and an USB port for extension. the freebox is linux-based and the hardware is created by free using commodity parts..

for XNA i don't know what is so much different to what is available under microsoft plateform. i guess i better make a search here

 

[rabidrabbit]

First of all this thread is about PSP and Xenon so it's down to PSP having a system seller at Xenon's launch.

I don't see any system sellers for a portable unless it's games like what you find on NDS which you can only play on NDS. PSP games are just watered down console games. The only thing that might affect Xenon is a PSP price drop which I highly doubt.

Why couldn't ther be a system seller for PSP, because they are not controlled by a stylus? :?

A PSP exclusive Final Fantasy title could be a system seller, even without a stylus (I know there won't be a PSP FF then, but you get my point)
A PSP exclusive GTA would be a system seller (I know... )
A PSP port of GT4 might sell some systems, even though it is a "watered down console game". I can see many wanting to play the same game on the move they play at home, if the game is good enough and you can share data between them (cars won and bought in GT4 etc..)

I know I am going to buy a PSP when it launches next year. If xbox2 launched at the same time I would still choose PSP.
Why? Because the portable device brings much different, and thus something with more "novety value" to me than another home console with updated graphics but much the same gaming experience. There would still be a lot of AAA titles coming to my current console, so I wn't be in a hurry to update that.
...and I think there are many who think like I do... I've noticed that I am an example model of an average mainstream gaming enthusiast who is not über hardcore and limited in budget so that he can not buy everything he fancies
I am mainstream and I'm not ashamed to say it!

Edit: Corrected anything = everything

 

[Ty]

I don't see any system sellers for a portable unless it's games like what you find on NDS which you can only play on NDS.

What NDS games qualify as these in your opinion?

PSP games are just watered down console games.

And GBA games? I think this statement of yours can be applied to the vast majority of portable games period. Imo that is not necessarily a bad thing as you intimate. I mean, I enjoy F-Zero on my GBA and that's one of the SNES launch titles so talk about old.

 

[PC-Engine]

PSP doesn't offer a new type of gaming experience. It's all been done before on Nintendo portables and the upcoming NDS. It will sell mainly because of its price and as SONY's first entry into the portable console market, NOT because of system selling titles since the games are just watered down PS2 ports. Yes some people will buy it for certain games, but most people will buy it for the reasons I posted earlier since they know the games they want will eventually arrive.

 

[thop]

About every console thus far has had an "exclusive system seller" at launch, how much has it sold systems is another matter.

GC didn't. Neither did PS2, unless you think Tekken Tag Tournament was big PS2 system seller in the early weeks was backwards compatibility and the Playstation brand, and the DVD player (mostly in Japan).

Oh and anyone who thinks SONY is gonna sit quietly and watch MS launch Xenon and sell lots of systems is a fool! They are gonna piss on their parade with all they got, SONY are experts in that field. And it'll probably even work out.

 

[Spidermate]

First of all this thread is about PSP and Xenon so it's down to PSP having a system seller at Xenon's launch.

I don't see any system sellers for a portable unless it's games like what you find on NDS which you can only play on NDS. PSP games are just watered down console games. The only thing that might affect Xenon is a PSP price drop which I highly doubt.

This is just silly. The PSP has not even launched yet. You talk about a system seller, but answer me this: Did the PS2 need a system seller on its launch? No. It came down to what the console was able to do. The systems sellers fell later.

 

[pahcman]

Im not saying who will win or what will be, in our center of future entertainment. I just find it real silly to dismiss the PC group. These guys have grown in so much stature over the years, i dare say, they have as much power and ability, as oldies Sony, to have a say and shape the future of home entertainment.

No one expect the PC of today to sit comfortably with average users, nor shall one find the watered down Tivo PSX adequate to provide for the vastness of broadband digital. BUT neither will any expect both to stay the same over the years.

If MS is vulnerable to losing their gripe on the digital world, traditional boy Sony is just as vulnerable not being able to find their steps in a more complex "digital home" environment.

The battle for "digital home" far from set in stone afaics.

 

[Spidermate]

Im not saying who will win or what will be, in our center of future entertainment. I just find it real silly to dismiss the PC group. These guys have grown in so much stature over the years, i dare say, they have as much power and ability, as oldies Sony, to have a say and shape the future of home entertainment.

No one expect the PC of today to sit comfortably with average users, nor shall one find the watered down Tivo PSX adequate to provide for the vastness of broadband digital. BUT neither will any expect both to stay the same over the years.

If MS is vulnerable to losing their gripe on the digital world, traditional boy Sony is just as vulnerable not being able to find their steps in a more complex "digital home" environmen.The battle for "digital home" far from set in stone afaics.

You're right. But, I still believe a PC is much more limited than a television set is, at least right now. It, in my opinion, is just not the center of entertainment. A close second, I could give it.

 

[NRP]

The Xbox is already way easier and cheaper to develop. The Xbox is a superior piece of hardware. There are many 18 - 35 year old people who buy a PS2 and an Xbox now. An Xbox hardware is already cheaper than others as it's sold with many game bundles. The only thing it lacks is games. So it's already a software war in this generation.

PC games are generally better and more sophisticated than console games. For the most part, console-only game developers make dumbed-down games that seem to follow design paradigms that lag years behind those of PC game developers. Some of this is due to harware limitations, but I think mostly it is due to publishers/developers having a "console" mentality when designing game content. Currently, PC games in general are more appealing to the 18 - 35 yr old demographic that Microsoft is targeting. So, through XNA, Microsoft wants to attract more PC game developers to Xenon. XNA, in theory, should abstract the hardware enough so that it doesn't matter for the most part whether it's a PC or a console. The ideal situation is that it's just as easy to write a game for a console as it is for a PC. Currently, this isn't the case at all, although it is easier for the XBox. Thus, XNA could potentially mean better games for Xenon by attracting PC game publishers/developers. I think it's a good start by Microsoft to take steps to leverage the PC development community.

I don't care how much better the PS3 may or may not be than Xenon. If the whole group of PS2 developers create the same basic types of games for the PS3 with only better graphics, the "young adults" probably won't be interested. Sony must also take steps to attract PC game developers to the PS3, because I have doubts that console-only developers can all of a sudden start producing games that appeal to older crowds.

So, yes, it is currently a software battle. However, with the next gen consoles, Microsoft wants to make it a full-on software war.

 

[Spidermate]

I have a feeling this war will end with these two buys and partnering with software companies to obtain exclusivity.

 

[one]

PC games are generally better and more sophisticated than console games.

I stopped reading your comment here. WTF are you writing? Development cost, budget and revenue for a typical console game are simply higher than for a PC game in average even without licensing fee. More money doesn't necessarily produce a better game, but in most case it does.

 

[PC-Engine]

First of all this thread is about PSP and Xenon so it's down to PSP having a system seller at Xenon's launch.

I don't see any system sellers for a portable unless it's games like what you find on NDS which you can only play on NDS. PSP games are just watered down console games. The only thing that might affect Xenon is a PSP price drop which I highly doubt.

This is just silly. The PSP has not even launched yet. You talk about a system seller, but answer me this: Did the PS2 need a system seller on its launch? No. It came down to what the console was able to do. The systems sellers fell later.

And that's why I said:

It (PSP) will sell mainly because of its price and as SONY's first entry into the portable console market, NOT because of system selling titles since the games are just watered down PS2 ports. Yes some people will buy it for certain games, but most people will buy it for the reasons I posted earlier since they know the games they want will eventually arrive.

When I mentioned PSP needing a system seller, it was regarding a person having to decide whether to get a PSP or Xenon. If there is no system sellers for PSP then people are more likely to get a Xenon instead which will have a system seller. They are not going to buy a PSP then let it sit there while waiting for system selling software to arrive. Xenon is not DC.