Does PSP take the shine off next year's Xbox 2 launch?

[pahcman]

Will PSTwo affect the PSP?
Will PS3 affect the PSP?
Will Xenon affect the PSP?
Will DS affect the PSP?
Will Gizmondo affect the PSP?
Will Ipod affect the PSP?
Will PMC affect the PSP?
Will GBA affect the PSP?
Wil...

PC is still not at the center in home contrary to what Intel plans for several years, and a good old TV is still at the center as a consumer appliance. (Or, simply skipping fat PC and moving into more personal devices such as ubiquitous cell phones and handhelds)

Prime time TV viewing is down. World wide sales and usage of PC and Internet is at an all time high. Without good statistical proof I cannot claim that PC has overtaken good old TV as the center, but i dare say both are competing much more closely than ever before. I wouldnt even say competing, more like complimenting.

You also need to ask yourself, are consoles moving more towards "PC-like" features or the "plain old TV-like" features? Not much to say of course, since any success MS may enjoy out of Xbox line, has little to do with competing in the "wrong" turf.

fortunately in this market it's not simple as to say "throw lots of money and annihilate competition by our financial strength"

it must sound childish, but i would really prefer a fair competition which would rely on the merits of each opponents..
imagine the olympic games where one could buy a gold medal..

Tell that to the PSP...

 

[one]

Prime time TV viewing is down. World wide sales and usage of PC and Internet is at an all time high. Without good statistical proof I cannot claim that PC has overtaken good old TV as the center, but i dare say both are competing much more closely than ever before. I wouldnt even say competing, more like complimenting.

You are comparing usage models. I rather compare them based on hardware sales. What happens if those TVs and game consoles are intelligent enough for web-browsing? (well, MS itself has WebTV...) You can assemble a nice DVD recorder with a PC, but people buy Tivo.

You also need to ask yourself, are consoles moving more towards "PC-like" features or the "plain old TV-like" features? Not much to say of course, since any success MS may enjoy out of Xbox line, has little to do with competing in the "wrong" turf.

Can you elaborate why does it have so little? Selling a software and selling a hardware are whole different business. Do you think in '90s MS expected itself in hardware business along with Sun and Apple? Microsoft had built its success in '90s with a bottleneck called Windows on the standardized IBM PC, while crapping IBM's OS/2. For console market, it's more like early '80s where Bill Gates praised Mac against IBM PC Microsoft is still vulnerable there, because there are others who can define hardware architectures from the bottom of the stack.

 

[pahcman]

What is hardware without software?

TV hardware is just a plain box, likewise so is a PC monitor. Usage model is the key. If you look at the type of future entertainment guys like Sony are planning, the PC is already far ahead of them. Just as PC may not have the longer tradition of TV, so are consumer appliances starting to take more PC like apps. One is trying to streamline itself, while the other is trying to increase its scope functions. Both are actually coming closer than ever before.

Thus, I do not agree that PC are not there yet. PC are now a common tool at home. Its as much a consumer appliance as a TV. How many B3Ders use the PC more than TV nowadays?

Its premature to think the future will go with traditional consumer appliance model. Who would have expect Ipod/mp3 to become the new portable music standard, the new Walkman?

It has little to do because, selling hardware/software may seem somewhat different to you, but no one can argue about MS financial ability to carry on either business model. If you follow recent Xenon development, you can see to what wazoo said about MS coming back with stronger understandings.

Note:

1) For above PC vs future con-app, I was thinking more along the lines of PSX like Tivo devices, and not future consoles. Ps3/Xenon/Rev i expect nothing more than simple gaming boxes. So im not sure how much relevance this discussion is in Console Talk.

2) Before anyone even think of saying MS and OS , Windows XP is still the best that covers the widest range of apps. Find me a real alternative than we talk.

 

[London Geezer]

What is hardware without software?

Like an eagle without wings.

Like an ocean without waves.

Like me without my gym membership.

 

[function]

Ta, Qroach and AzBat.

I forgot to also point out that before the DC, Sega had a period of almost complete absence from retail, advertising and any form of mainstream media (no games coverage, reviews etc) after the Saturn and it's games had been "reduced to clear" during 1998. The Xbox, on the other hand, will be very visible this Christmas and beyond, with focus transferring over to Xenon in late 2005 / 2006. Unlike Sega, MS won't miss a Christmas or have a period of invisibility.

 

[AzBat]

If people don't like PS2 for some reason or another, then they have the choice to select another console.

Sure, and Capcom stakeholders have the big choice too

Just like any other developer that has decided to develop for one platform over the other.

Tommy McClain

 

[AzBat]

Magnum,

I find it interesting you didn't respond to the rest of my comments. To each his own, I guess.

This is a peculiar question. Wouldn't you agree that the market determines what justifies its existence?

by the massives losses of the xbox, the market have shown that there was no place for it. if it was not microsoft and its cashcows (and its "benevolous" other clients) the towel would have been thrown long ago...

the xbox is under life support from the beginning.

the other plateforms are financially viable so approved by the market. even the "they're doomed" nintendo's own... so my statement is not as subjective as it may appears.

ok microsoft have tremendous amounts of money but despite it, they missed the target this gen, we are very far from the number that were announced.. fortunately in this market it's not simple as to say "throw lots of money and annihilate competition by our financial strength"

it must sound childish, but i would really prefer a fair competition which would rely on the merits of each opponents..
imagine the olympic games where one could buy a gold medal..

Ok, let me get this right... you still believe that a company has to make profits on a product in order for that product to be justified in the market? That's an ignorant view don't you think? Others have given the PSP as an example. There are others as well like new products entering a new market. The product will most likely lose money for a certain length of time before it gets enough exposure to finally start selling enough units to turn a profit.

Anyway, if people buy a product, then it's existence is justified. It does not matter whether or not that product met or did not meet profit goals or installed base. Now, that company itself can determine whether or not they want to continue producing that product based on profits and sold units. It's totally possible that after some time they will eventually turn a profit or meet other goals. So, yes, it's a risk for them, but that doesn't mean their product isn't justified. So again, people justify the existence of a product by purchasing it and not any predefined requirements you have come up with on your own.

Tommy McClain

 

[Magnum PI]

Thus, I do not agree that PC are not there yet. PC are now a common tool at home. Its as much a consumer appliance as a TV. How many B3Ders use the PC more than TV nowadays?

not as long as most people need assistance to run their PC, that the PC is plagued with virus, drivers, patches.. the PC is far from being as convenient as the TV.

when i look at the convergence stuff, a new sort of devices could emerge (it already began), the new multifunction terminals connected to an ADSL line.

with this sort of box you already have internet, VoIP and television, with the convenience of your telephone or you cable decoder..

with the ADSL throughput increasing (ADSL2+ = more than 10 mbits/) and the new video codecs ( less bandwidth needed), you can expect to see new services like VoD (like video rental where you can use the video like a dvd, not kiosk services), and PVR functionnality (no local hard drive but dedicated space on the provider resources), why not a mp3 player (you buy some music online and you can only access it through the terminal), and lots of services no one have yet thought about it.

it has an USB, so you have room for expansion (webcam, hard drive..)

i think this kind of device will proliferate, some of them will be microsoft mediacenter-based, some of them linux-based etc.. but it's tipically provided by your ADSL operator, it's not something you buy..

so i think the convergence thing will come from this sort of devices more than consoles or PC.

 

[one]

Thus, I do not agree that PC are not there yet. PC are now a common tool at home. Its as much a consumer appliance as a TV. How many B3Ders use the PC more than TV nowadays?

Its premature to think the future will go with traditional consumer appliance model. Who would have expect Ipod/mp3 to become the new portable music standard, the new Walkman?

Aren't we talking about Microsoft and other companies rather than specific products? I wrote 'hardware sales'.

If you like PC, okay, how do you think those PC-related manufacturers can continue profiting by selling PC for the next 10 years? As you see PC get to be seen as commodity these days. Sony sells VAIO PC, but not profitable now unlike the time when it debuted. You can't expect much growth like in the dot-bomb era, then you have to move on to other markets to feed a bloated company. So Intel, HP, Dell all challenge traditional consumer electronics markets with their sophisticated pieces of technology as added value. To those companies eyes, profit still lies in 'digital home' unlike your analysis.

If you follow recent Xenon development, you can see to what wazoo said about MS coming back with stronger understandings.

Xenon development is not different from GC/N64 where Nintendo had close relationships with SGI/IBM/ATi. Let's see how it turns out

 

[Fafalada]

Windows XP is still the best that covers the widest range of apps. Find me a real alternative than we talk.

Windows 2000.

Frankly, after finally caving down to install XP on my work machine I'm regretting it more every day. Unfortunately thanks to some software that requires XP to work (PSP emulator *cough*) I have little choice in the matter really... oh well...

 

[ERP]

Other than loosing my "My Computer" Icon for a few days, I thought the transition from 2000 to XP was painless. And I actually like some of the UI improvements.

 

[Fafalada]

Oh don't get me wrong - I haven't encountered any major problems... there's just a growing list of small annoyances that pile up...

I don't have any love for the changes to the GUI look though, first thing I did was change it back to classic. Although that doesn't stop some things from still behaving XPish.
There's occasionally some odd behaviour in UI responsiveness also that I never noticed with 2k.

 

[Spidermate]

And you also focus intensively on profits, as though they are the only thing businesses care about. But that's not realistic either. MS planned to be in the red for a long time. They knew their first generation would be a money-losing venture. To point out that they were right as proof that the Xbox is bad is sheer lunacy.

Are you sure about that? To my knowledge, Microsoft was planning on entering the market and instantly eliminating the competition.-----> 2001

Now, I'm sure Microsoft planned on losing money when the Xbox launched. But, I'm almost certain that they didn't plan on the Xbox not ever establishing a profit. They are not use to being last or second to it. If my memory serves correct, they got rid of the person behind the first Xbox.

MS has established itself now, so they won't have to buy their way into everything. They also have dramatically more experience about the games Sony and N play. Given the chance to start over, MS will make a lot better decisions this time around. Why you think there's no way MS can turn a profit with the X2 I don't know.

Maybe they will and maybe they won't. This is a new gen coming. Anything is possible.

You also speak as if the Xbox doesn't really have anything to offer over the PS2, as though it were a knockoff. Well, the games speak for themselves. If you're not interested in the Xbox's games, that's perfectly reasonable. But the Xbox gets quite a bit of exclusive, good content (and I'm not talking solely about Halo and Halo 2).

I would say that the Xbox holds a small number of exclusives due to Nintendo not being a company to accept a lot of violent titles and the PS2 just not being a console capable of handling a lot of the exclusives the Xbox is able of handling. That's mainly the reason I would say a fair number of exclusives are on their console right now.

I also have to agree with Magnum that a television is more important than a PC as far as home entertainment go. For one, if can be viewed by many, and it's much more flexible, which is why small computers features are starting to be pushed into the livingroom. If not for the PC limitations we have on televison sets right now, it's more than a 50% chance that a huge sum of the market would have moved there by now.

 

[jvd]

THought u guys should check out some of the new magazines . They are all talking about the pc having better years than the consoles and how during this transition period even the big guns like capcom and namco are making pc games .

So the pc market like it has done so many times will be the one left standing at the end of the day

 

[Inane_Dork]

Are you sure about that? To my knowledge, Microsoft was planning on entering the market and instantly eliminating the competition.-----> 2001

Well, for one, the article was written in 2002, not 2001.

For two, I can't find anything in there that claims MS planned on instantly eliminating the competition. Furthermore, I don't think you'll find a quote like that. MS was not so stupid in 2001 that they thought they could corner the market in one inexperienced shot.

Third, yes, I am sure MS planned on not making a profit from the Xbox for a long time. Read a slightly less biased account here. And that's actual 2001, pre-launch conjecture. You should read it just for old time's sake.

They are not use to being last or second to it.

They're not used to being stuck in 2nd or 3rd place, true. However, they've shown dedication to trying to get to #1 before. They don't always succeed, but IE wasn't built in a day.

 

[Spidermate]

Well, for one, the article was written in 2002, not 2001.

For two, I can't find anything in there that claims MS planned on instantly eliminating the competition. Furthermore, I don't think you'll find a quote like that. MS was not so stupid in 2001 that they thought they could corner the market in one inexperienced shot.

Third, yes, I am sure MS planned on not making a profit from the Xbox for a long time. Read a slightly less biased account here. And that's actual 2001, pre-launch conjecture. You should read it just for old time's sake.

If they were expecting to do this horrible, then I guess I can understand their this next approach they are getting ready to take. But a very interesting read, I must say.

They're not used to being stuck in 2nd or 3rd place, true. However, they've shown dedication to trying to get to #1 before. They don't always succeed, but IE wasn't built in a day.

Very true, but the same can also be said the other way around.

 

[Inane_Dork]

You mean like this?

day a in built wasn't IE but, succeed always don't They. before #1 to get to trying to dedication shown they've, However. true, place 3rd or 2nd in stuck being to used not They're.

 

[Spidermate]

You mean like this?

day a in built wasn't IE but, succeed always don't They. before #1 to get to trying to dedication shown they've, However. true, place 3rd or 2nd in stuck being to used not They're.

No. I mean Microsoft's competition.

 

[Inane_Dork]

Hmm... Sony is questionably like that. Nintendo is not like that at all. Oh well. Different opinions, I guess.

 

[NRP]

not as long as most people need assistance to run their PC, that the PC is plagued with virus, drivers, patches.. the PC is far from being as convenient as the TV.

when i look at the convergence stuff, a new sort of devices could emerge (it already began), the new multifunction terminals connected to an ADSL line.

with this sort of box you already have internet, VoIP and television, with the convenience of your telephone or you cable decoder..

with the ADSL throughput increasing (ADSL2+ = more than 10 mbits/) and the new video codecs ( less bandwidth needed), you can expect to see new services like VoD (like video rental where you can use the video like a dvd, not kiosk services), and PVR functionnality (no local hard drive but dedicated space on the provider resources), why not a mp3 player (you buy some music online and you can only access it through the terminal), and lots of services no one have yet thought about it.

it has an USB, so you have room for expansion (webcam, hard drive..)

i think this kind of device will proliferate, some of them will be microsoft mediacenter-based, some of them linux-based etc.. but it's tipically provided by your ADSL operator, it's not something you buy..

so i think the convergence thing will come from this sort of devices more than consoles or PC.

Why do you think Microsoft is willing to bleed so much money on the XBox hardware? They most likely only really care about the console gaming market in so far as it can allow them to get their product into people's households. They want a piece of this home entertainment pie, and a large installed base is a key. It's probably a relatively easy matter to introduce a gaming console that also incorporates all of the technologies you list - once you have the installed base. It's a long term investment, and Microsoft is in a unique position to gamble on this investment.

On a simpler note, the short term success or failure of any of the next gen consoles will be due to one thing, and one thing only: games. If Xenon ships with better first party titles than PS3, then it will be a success. I don't think which console is more powerful will matter that much because, as others have stated, they will all be pretty close anyway. Microsoft wants to turn this into a software war, rather than a hardware war. Microsoft is already taking steps to make it easier for PC game developers to create titles for the XBox via XNA technology.

Also, Microsoft is aiming for the 18 - 35 yr old demographic. This demographic typically is employed with some disposable income. Therefore, I think it is resonable that someone from this demographic can and probably will purchase multiple devices to suit his/her tastes.