Does PSP take the shine off next year's Xbox 2 launch?

[cthellis42]

There will certainly be a segment of gamers it might interfere with--in the same way that the DS might--that being those who haven't been into portable gaming before now and don't have a habit of picking up anything and everything. If they are indeed going to pick up either system, as well as a reasonable amount of games, then it could affect their budget enough for them to hold off when Xenon rolls around. (Especially as a purchaser has a higher likelihood of leaning in Sony's or Nintendo's direction anyway, and would more likely want to wait for their next systems to launch.)

Will it affect things to any huge degree? Likely not. Certainly not more so than the full info on PS3 and N5 (power/features/etc) would do; if Xenon ends up underneath its competitors this time, they can't lean on the advantages that drew more people to the Xbox this time around.

Otherwise, the portable and mainstream consoles are still split enough to not interfere with each other, except for those who are borderline already. This may change over the course of the next generation (building console/portable interlinking capabilities and making them much more interesting to have in conjunction), but it won't have changed by Xenon's launch.

 

[Spidermate]

I still say this advantage of their could decrease the Xenon's sales tremendously. You underestimate this strategy greatly. Sony are masters of this area due to them leading a market that revolves around just this. They know just what to use against you to keep you focused on them. For instance, Halo 2... Sony knows that this is Microsoft's ace. This is the reason they brought out the PStwo this early combined with all of these triple A titles extremely close to it. This move wasn't a coincidense. It was planned. Therefore, I tell you, this handheld they are getting ready to launch is nothing more than a steak on a string so that your attention is focused on their next move and not their competitors. They are killing two birds with one stone.

People seem to think that this handheld has to be purchased for this strategy to succeed. When,infact, that's the total opposite. All they want you to do is look. From their, they have you undivided attention focus on just them.

 

[MrSingh]

There is nothing the PSP can do that the PS2 (or XBOX) can't

Off topic, but this is just such a funny and ignorant statement.

There's nothing iPod can do that my 10kg heavy computer + Hi Fi amp and speakers cannot do...

weakling.

 

[wco81]

Sony said they will ship 1 million units each to North America, Japan and Europe for the next fiscal year.

Would that mean just 1 million from whenever it launches over here and the end of 2005?

That could lead to shortages and people selling over retail on eBay, as was the case with the PS2 and earlier this year with the iPod Mini.

With such shortages, PSP may not affect Xenon at all. People can't get it for Xmas 2005, they will look at other things to buy.

Incidentally, Nintendo plans to ship 4 million DS units in the next 5 months. So if the sell-through is good, DS will have a big market share and installed base lead through end of 2005.

 

[Spidermate]

I know they're launching Japan first. The US will fall 3 to 5 months after. I'm not sure about everywhere else. But, it seems to me, they are playing their hand in a sequence. So, I believe they may be ok. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

 

[AzBat]

lol, I would find it hilarious if Nintendo and MS switched strategies next-gen, Nintendo with an advanced, feature rich system (well something has to justify its revolution moniker) and MS with the cheap games only approach.

If you look at it in that context I agree it is humorous. But personally I'm not going to be surprised if it happens. Microsoft has to do something different in order to make some profit. Nintendo might not be doing as well as Microsoft in the U.S. with regard to market share, but they are still making more money than Microsoft. Microsoft has got to be envy about that and who wouldn't? Nintendo didn't get where they are by making bulky and expensive hardware. It's all about trade-offs.

Tommy McClain

 

[wco81]

There's a Gamespot news article quoting KK at length.

Their annual capacity for PSP production is only 3 million.

They allocated a million each to the 3 big regions through the fiscal year.

So maybe their fiscal year ends in June or Sept and they will have more than a million in the US.

But if their annual capacity is 3 million...

 

[AzBat]

Oh god, it's like the Dreamcast all over again!!

What do you mean zurich?

The DC was specifically launched before the PS2 and at a cheaper price to get a 'head start' on the next generation, and instead it all backfired and was considered vastly inferior to the hype for the then-non existant PS2.

Xenon seems to be trying to launch before the PS3 and possibly at a cheaper price to get a 'head start' on the next generation - it could very well all backfire if it is considered vastly inferior to the hype for the currently non-existant PS3.

Zurich,

I think the Dreamcast had a lot of other problems than just that. Microsoft is in a different position With the Xbox1 than Sega was with the Saturn. Plus, there was 15-month gap between the 2 consoles. I doubt we will see that big of span between Xbox2 and PS3, if any. Though I agree hype/marketing will influence each of the launches. However, I don't think we should say that Microsoft is going to go the way of the Dreamcast. That's just a little over-reaction don't you think?

Tommy McClain

 

[zurich]

Zurich,

I think the Dreamcast had a lot of other problems than just that. Microsoft is in a different position With the Xbox1 than Sega was with the Saturn. Plus, there was 15-month gap between the 2 consoles. I doubt we will see that big of span between Xbox2 and PS3, if any. Though I agree hype/marketing will influence each of the launches. However, I don't think we should say that Microsoft is going to go the way of the Dreamcast. That's just a little over-reaction don't you think?

Tommy McClain

Well, I'll guess we'll have to see! Perceptually, I think they're both in very similar situations.

 

[function]

I think the Dreamcast had a lot of other problems than just that. Microsoft is in a different position With the Xbox1 than Sega was with the Saturn. Plus, there was 15-month gap between the 2 consoles. I doubt we will see that big of span between Xbox2 and PS3, if any. Though I agree hype/marketing will influence each of the launches. However, I don't think we should say that Microsoft is going to go the way of the Dreamcast. That's just a little over-reaction don't you think?

Quite. The Dreamcast followed a string of other Sega failures (which were, very importantly, clearly seen as failures by both the public and devs/publishers), and was from a company afflicted with bitter and crippling management infighting. To top it off the PS2 arrived more than a year after the DC and came from a company that was (is) talented at generating extrodinary levels of hype and had an abundance of cash compared to cash strapped, debt laden, collapse fearing Sega.

And Sega, crucially, had EA very publicly slapping them in the face and balls.

Despite this, and inconveniently for those that write off the DC at every attempt as some kind of yardstick of failure, it sold comparably to the Xbox and Gamecube in it's limited time and could quite coneiveably have had a greater installed base and cumulative software sales than either of them if it had survived to the end of this generation (if Sega hadn't been quite so ... Sega).

Compared to this, Microsoft is in a very different situation.

They do have support from EA (and lots of it). They aren't teetering on the brink of callapse, and have billions to spend on Xbox 2. They don't suffer from the kind of management troubles that Sega had (Microsoft Japan is unlikely to sack the head of Home and Leisure weeks before the Xbox 2's release). The Xbox isn't seen as a total failure by devs and the public in its two most important markets, and they aren't taking steps to alienate their existing customers. There aren't rumours spreading uncontrollably that MS are going to pull out of the console market at any moment.

On top of this, Xenon is very unlikely to arrive almost 18 months before PS3, but if by some chance it does, MS has the money to try and build up a Xenon userbase within that time. And after the Xbox 1, if MS say their console is effectively as powerful as the PS3, or try to spin it in some other direction (talking about efficiency, magic pixel effects or whatever) some people are likely to listen anyway.

The Megadrive beat the SNES to market and was a big success. The PS1 beat the N64 to market and was a big success. PS2 beat the Xbox and GC to market and was a huge success. It's interesting that when people do choose superficially similar console battles to compare the next gen to, they only focus on DC v PS2. And while Sony isn't Nintendo, Microsoft certainly isn't Sega.

 

[Qroach]

well put function.

 

[cthellis42]

...but Pong beat the Atari 2600 to market and got trashed!

 

[Magnum PI]

what function forgot is that we are not in the megadrive/snes era anymore.. were are in the playstation era !

since it entered the marked, sony playstation earned the place of the console "standard", à la ibm PC or VHS..

as long as nintendo has a sufficient added value (franchises and very strong first party) that allow them to make healthy profits, it can coexist w/ playstation, like apple coexists with ibm PC.

but xbox ... what does it have that justify its coexistence alongside playstation ? what does it have that playstation does not have ? performance, halo franchise, xbox live ?

if we admit the idea that in the next generation the playstation will be more powerful that the xbox, one of the few strong points of the xbox will become one of its weaknesses. and microsoft money won't do miracles, otherwise xbox wouldn't be where it is (despite gigantic losses that would have made almost any company stop the hemmoragy, microsoft only managed a very low installed base compared to playstation).

microsoft failed this gen, why would they succeed the next gen ? what have changed so much ? what gives a new advantage to xbox line ?

unless sony does dramatically bad i'm not overly optimistic for xbox line.

 

[AzBat]

Magnum,

lol Not sure where to start.

but xbox ... what does it have that justify its coexistence alongside playstation ? what does it have that playstation does not have ? performance, halo franchise, xbox live ?

This is a peculiar question. Wouldn't you agree that the market determines what justifies its existence? Not everybody that's looking for a game console likes the same thing. Different people prefer different things. If people don't like PS2 for some reason or another, then they have the choice to select another console. Supposedly over 13 million have done so already. So who is to say that doesn't justify its existence? You? Isn't that egotistic of you to believe that? I'm sorry you don't think Live, Halo, performance, hard drive, etc justify its existence, but I think about 13 million other people would disagree.

as long as nintendo has a sufficient added value (franchises and very strong first party) that allow them to make healthy profits, it can coexist w/ playstation, like apple coexists with ibm PC.

I think if you can claim those reasons for justifying Gamecube's existence in the market, then I believe you have to give equal treatment to Xbox as well. Who says that there can only be 2 players in the market? If the market determines that to be the case, then it will happen. However, as long as people are buying as many units as they have so far and the companies believe they can continue in the market with those numbers, then I think that's enough to justify their existence. Wouldn’t you?

if we admit the idea that in the next generation the playstation will be more powerful that the xbox, one of the few strong points of the xbox will become one of its weaknesses. and microsoft money won't do miracles, otherwise xbox wouldn't be where it is (despite gigantic losses that would have made almost any company stop the hemmoragy, microsoft only managed a very low installed base compared to playstation).

Who says that Microsoft has to use the same marketing points they used last generation for the next generation? Didn't you just say that they had nothing this generation that justified its existence? If that were the case, wouldn't you expect them to evolve their marketing points to something that would work much better?

I agree that change could backfire against existing installed base, but I also think that they can't continue using the same marketing points for the Xbox2. I think Microsoft probably weighed the pros and cons and have determined that most people are more concerned with quality games than a perceived technology prowess. It worked greatly for the PS2, no? BTW, this idea works more to Microsoft's strengths in software anyways.

microsoft failed this gen, why would they succeed the next gen ? what have changed so much ? what gives a new advantage to xbox line ?

unless sony does dramatically bad i'm not overly optimistic for xbox line.

Those are legitimate questions, but the answers are not here yet since we have no idea what Microsoft plans to do. Why don't we wait till they announce their plans before making up our minds?

Tommy McClain

 

[AzBat]

Quite. The Dreamcast followed a string of other Sega failures (which were, very importantly, clearly seen as failures by both the public and devs/publishers), and was from a company afflicted with bitter and crippling management infighting. To top it off the PS2 arrived more than a year after the DC and came from a company that was (is) talented at generating extrodinary levels of hype and had an abundance of cash compared to cash strapped, debt laden, collapse fearing Sega.

And Sega, crucially, had EA very publicly slapping them in the face and balls.

Despite this, and inconveniently for those that write off the DC at every attempt as some kind of yardstick of failure, it sold comparably to the Xbox and Gamecube in it's limited time and could quite coneiveably have had a greater installed base and cumulative software sales than either of them if it had survived to the end of this generation (if Sega hadn't been quite so ... Sega).

Compared to this, Microsoft is in a very different situation.

They do have support from EA (and lots of it). They aren't teetering on the brink of callapse, and have billions to spend on Xbox 2. They don't suffer from the kind of management troubles that Sega had (Microsoft Japan is unlikely to sack the head of Home and Leisure weeks before the Xbox 2's release). The Xbox isn't seen as a total failure by devs and the public in its two most important markets, and they aren't taking steps to alienate their existing customers. There aren't rumours spreading uncontrollably that MS are going to pull out of the console market at any moment.

On top of this, Xenon is very unlikely to arrive almost 18 months before PS3, but if by some chance it does, MS has the money to try and build up a Xenon userbase within that time. And after the Xbox 1, if MS say their console is effectively as powerful as the PS3, or try to spin it in some other direction (talking about efficiency, magic pixel effects or whatever) some people are likely to listen anyway.

The Megadrive beat the SNES to market and was a big success. The PS1 beat the N64 to market and was a big success. PS2 beat the Xbox and GC to market and was a huge success. It's interesting that when people do choose superficially similar console battles to compare the next gen to, they only focus on DC v PS2. And while Sony isn't Nintendo, Microsoft certainly isn't Sega.

Great reply function.

Tommy McClain

 

[Inane_Dork]

what function forgot is that we are not in the megadrive/snes era anymore.. were are in the playstation era !

Maybe we're entering a different era. Ever considered that?

as long as nintendo has a sufficient added value (franchises and very strong first party) that allow them to make healthy profits, it can coexist w/ playstation, like apple coexists with ibm PC.

I know this is a religiously charged issue, but if you call that coexistence, you'd better be hoping Sony ports a good deal of their content to N's machines in order to keep them afloat.

but xbox ... what does it have that justify its coexistence alongside playstation ? what does it have that playstation does not have ? performance, halo franchise, xbox live ?

if we admit the idea that in the next generation the playstation will be more powerful that the xbox, one of the few strong points of the xbox will become one of its weaknesses. and microsoft money won't do miracles, otherwise xbox wouldn't be where it is (despite gigantic losses that would have made almost any company stop the hemmoragy, microsoft only managed a very low installed base compared to playstation).

microsoft failed this gen, why would they succeed the next gen ? what have changed so much ? what gives a new advantage to xbox line ?

unless sony does dramatically bad i'm not overly optimistic for xbox line.

I can see why you'd not be optimistic at all if that's all you see about the Xbox and its sequel. But on the other hand, I think there's a lot more to be said for the Xbox than you give it credit for.

You talk about the PS3 as though it will run the X2 into the dirt, but that's a ridiculously remote possibility. Almost all informed opinions place all next-gen consoles even in terms of power. So you can argue a strength of the Xbox goes away for X2, but it will not really become a weakness.

And you also focus intensively on profits, as though they are the only thing businesses care about. But that's not realistic either. MS planned to be in the red for a long time. They knew their first generation would be a money-losing venture. To point out that they were right as proof that the Xbox is bad is sheer lunacy.

MS has established itself now, so they won't have to buy their way into everything. They also have dramatically more experience about the games Sony and N play. Given the chance to start over, MS will make a lot better decisions this time around. Why you think there's no way MS can turn a profit with the X2 I don't know.

You also speak as if the Xbox doesn't really have anything to offer over the PS2, as though it were a knockoff. Well, the games speak for themselves. If you're not interested in the Xbox's games, that's perfectly reasonable. But the Xbox gets quite a bit of exclusive, good content (and I'm not talking solely about Halo and Halo 2).

 

[cthellis42]

I guess poor Macintosh must be going out of business in the next year or two... AGAIN!

 

[wazoo]

d microsoft money won't do miracles, otherwise xbox wouldn't be where it is (despite gigantic losses that would have made almost any company stop the hemmoragy, microsoft only managed a very low installed base compared to playstation).

microsoft money is already doing miracles, because without it, the xbox would not be there anymore.

As for the future, you can think that Sony succeeded this gen against the xbox and at first sight it is, and against any other company it would, but, since we are talking MS, the only success would have been to disgust them and making them gave up. Otherwise you know they will come back next gen with a better offer, and the gen after that, until it is a success. They always do like that.

 

[one]

If people don't like PS2 for some reason or another, then they have the choice to select another console.

Sure, and Capcom stakeholders have the big choice too

Otherwise you know they will come back next gen with a better offer, and the gen after that, until it is a success. They always do like that.

The difference is, those winning battles were in their home turf, the software arena. But this time around, they have to fight in the software + hardware arena... In this thicker stack, Windows OS is nothing more than a middleware.

PC is still not at the center in home contrary to what Intel plans for several years, and a good old TV is still at the center as a consumer appliance. (Or, simply skipping fat PC and moving into more personal devices such as ubiquitous cell phones and handhelds)

In an extreme case, you could distribute IE for free and destroy Netscape, but for hardware you can't do that though a Sun executive said hardware should be free. Another possible way is the subscription model protected by a rigid DRM system, or Phantom model, and MS is trying it with Xbox Live. While it had modest amount of success, it's still not enough to sustain the whole console world.

 

[Magnum PI]

This is a peculiar question. Wouldn't you agree that the market determines what justifies its existence?

by the massives losses of the xbox, the market have shown that there was no place for it. if it was not microsoft and its cashcows (and its "benevolous" other clients) the towel would have been thrown long ago...

the xbox is under life support from the beginning.

the other plateforms are financially viable so approved by the market. even the "they're doomed" nintendo's own... so my statement is not as subjective as it may appears.

ok microsoft have tremendous amounts of money but despite it, they missed the target this gen, we are very far from the number that were announced.. fortunately in this market it's not simple as to say "throw lots of money and annihilate competition by our financial strength"

it must sound childish, but i would really prefer a fair competition which would rely on the merits of each opponents..
imagine the olympic games where one could buy a gold medal..