Do you think there will be a mid gen refresh console from Sony and Microsoft?

That‘s probably true although it will be difficult to squeeze a lot of rays out of the new consoles. It’s not fair to judge until we’ve seen what Insomniac, Guerilla etc can do with the hardware but even traditional rendering seems to be pushing the limit. Some of the prettiest games so far (Demon’s Souls, HFW, Plague Tale) are already running at 30fps to get there.
Demon's Souls runs at 60 =P

But most of these titles were not designed with RT technologies in mind. I still think Metro is still the only AAA RT only game. And this also runs 60fps -- even on Series S.
Albeit none of this is path tracing, this is all hybrid usage of rays via temporal accumulation. But we can see, in many ways, this works for the generation we are at today. And I suspect many RT based games moving forward will adopt and expand on this path.

And even then, I don't consider it fully built from the ground up, they just redid the lighting by removing static lights, we've yet to see a game designed to make full dramatic usage of RT lighting.
So many of our games are outdoors, because the outdoors is easy to make beautiful with static lighting. But once you go indoors, that's really where we need dynamic lighting and shading.

I think we have yet to truly see what's coming. Next generation will be exciting.
 
I think we will see more progress from the consoles in rasterization tricks/efficiency than RT.

Have there been any good presentations / papers on innovations in geometry handling on the new consoles? It seems that most of the improvement in environment detail / density is due to raw speed and bigger texture budget.

Demon's Souls runs at 60 =P

Sure, in Lo-Fi mode :)

But most of these titles were not designed with RT technologies in mind. I still think Metro is still the only AAA RT only game. And this also runs 60fps -- even on Series S.
Albeit none of this is path tracing, this is all hybrid usage of rays via temporal accumulation. But we can see, in many ways, this works for the generation we are at today. And I suspect many RT based games moving forward will adopt and expand on this path.

And even then, I don't consider it fully built from the ground up, they just redid the lighting by removing static lights, we've yet to see a game designed to make full dramatic usage of RT lighting.
So many of our games are outdoors, because the outdoors is easy to make beautiful with static lighting. But once you go indoors, that's really where we need dynamic lighting and shading.

I think we have yet to truly see what's coming. Next generation will be exciting.

I would be very surprised if RT becomes a first class citizen on this generation of consoles. The hardware just isn't up to it. It'll likely remain a tacked on setting in "quality mode" for the duration of this cycle.
 
Sure, in Lo-Fi mode :)
haha.. I preferred the Lo-Fi mode. The temporal image is much more stable. 30fps hi res mode was way too blurry when turning.
I would be very surprised if RT becomes a first class citizen on this generation of consoles.
I think that money trumps all, and RT should provide significant savings in the development process if things are computed in real-time and not baked. Series S may look like old school DVD, but it'll run. I think for the other two, they will be fine. I believe a great deal of engines are plagued by the constant baking of lights and constant rework. In a development world where games are taking 3-4 years to push out a title, a significant reboot of the title and all that baking work needs to be redone, I think many developers would prefer to remove baking from the process entirely. That would just make iteration speed so much faster.

I think the benefits, even if not apparently graphically, will outweigh the cost, which is that games are taking too long to put out, and could result in failure if you miss your release window. If games are rapidly changing, you can't be waiting 5 years to build a title, it's bound to have lacklustre arrival - see Halo. Development hell is painful on teams, see Destiny, see Halo. And re-writes of the game can delay titles often over a year (see most games lately), see Anthem which was overcooked by baking

"Things like baking the lighting can take 24 hours. If we’re making changes to a level, we have to go through another bake process. It’s a very complex process"

So I believe, honestly money trumps all. And if they can reduce the risk and increase the profits by having faster release windows and less penalization from re-work - I see RTRT as the way forward.

RT will result in much faster iteration on both lighting and level design - ie, no baking time required.
This in turn allows for much more varied encounter design, and opens up what can happen dynamically (SSD also plays a role here)
This in turn allows for experimental features, but also, to be able to rapidly implement rising trends and iterate on them.

I think many are correct here, that there is likely insufficient RT power in the existing consoles to make a dramatic difference in RT lighting as PC high end GPUs can. But if RTRT can be equivalent to baked lighting in quality, more or less, or perform as well with some other changes, it's worth it, even if the audience can't see it.

Our move to texture streaming is quite similar, which dramatically improved texture quality without inflating VRAM sizes or even asset sizes. I think it's a worthwhile switch over for development, and as consoles and PC continue to get more powerful, they can dynamically scale the quality of RT.
 
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Since I am bedridden and feverish aka not allowed to work on anything needing half a braincell, I want to throw my 2nd hat into the ring here :)

I think we need to look at this from different wants and aspects, I doubt there is no one good reason for doing a 5Pro, but maybe there are a lot of smaller ones that add up? With that said, I have firmly in the no pro camp, but would get one if it becomes reality.

Most people on here, who wants a 5Pro (or at least dream of a real NG console), want it to be as powerful as a PC with a 4090 in it, but that is of course not possible when you need to hit price and power/heat requirements. And like DF said, there is no AMD hardware that can do that anyway, so it looks like a waste of time and money for everybody.

Then there is the rumour/leak aspect where it basically says better RT and thats about it, by itself that is most likely not a big enough driver. Not that I belive 4K was a big driver for 4Pro, but that the market pitch was way easier that time. It does 4K and we moved on to debate wether it was good 4K or not and nobody really cared if it should exist or not.

Now, Sony, have the bottomline in mind, so if they could get away with making PS4.5 and call it 5Pro and sell it for twice the price they would. But logically that seems very farfetched and dumb of them to do.
But I think we all assume that Sony wants to shrink and do cost down as hard as possible and keep more cash/profit. Then again that might make it possible to price drop if needed due to how the market develops.

Looking back at the 4Pro, what was it? Just a bunch of more CUs and a bit more RAM, in the "butterfly design" to achieve it. Now if Sony could get a 5Pro for next to nothing in investment and create a half decent marketing pitch that the audience buys, maybe they could do a 5Pro for RT as mentioned in the leaks.

1. All PS5 drops to X nm, which by itself might not be worth the cost, but with less costly heatsink and maybe other components, then the current PS5 offering, is taken care off. And a price drop might be a manoeuvre that becomes available for Sony if needed in the future.
2. If we use the 4Pro template, minor adjustments in general, tacking on a bunch of CU/HW bits as a butterfly2ish (tm) soluition, where the extra hw bits could/might be Cerny RT acceleration patent implementation. Which are transparent to the games, you make an api call and if hw is there, it will be used, if it's not, then the computation is done in SW.
3. Sony still get to have the option of choice for the buyer, buy the new PS5 with optional disc adon or buy the more expensive 5Pro to get some nice god rays and more storage. But the psychology of price decoys are common, you put an expensive piece next to a less expensive piece to make the less expensive look like its a better value. And then you get the die hards/fanboys to get the expensive one. In nothing much changed in regards to perf (hey 4pro again), but Sony can rejuvenate their communication (make some new crazy commercials nobody understands etc), they get to write off the expenses across multiple projects/devices, hw contracts gets re-negotiated and their lineup is refreshed a bit.

Not sure how plausible this is, but big corp loves the word synergies so who knows.
 
So I believe, honestly money trumps all. And if they can reduce the risk and increase the profits by having faster release windows and less penalization from re-work - I see RTRT as the way forward.

Agree on the money being the prime driver.
But if you got RT only, how small does your customer base become? Unless you do RT for some and baking for "most". If you have to do that, you have not saved anything, just added cost.
 
Agree on the money being the prime driver.
But if you got RT only, how small does your customer base become? Unless you do RT for some and baking for "most". If you have to do that, you have not saved anything, just added cost.
If releasing today:
PS5, Series consoles, 2XXX+ RTX, RDNA2+, Intel, Geforce Now, XCloud

I think the size is quite reasonable already.
 
If releasing today:
PS5 + Series consoles + 2000 and greater RTX + RDNA2 forward + Geforce Now + XCloud

I think the size is quite reasonable already.

But can those platforms deliver the RT performance that you allude to wanting? Also what you think is reasonable. might not be reasonable at all?
Especially since current gen consoles, seems to not be big enough for current only releases yet, I would think that is an indication of that.
 
But can those platforms deliver the RT performance that you allude to wanting? Also what you think is reasonable. might not be reasonable at all?
Especially since current gen consoles, seems to not be big enough for current only releases yet, I would think that is an indication of that.
I think Series S is likely to be the bottom of the barrel of that group.
So... if 4A Studios can make an RT only game with RT based lighting @ 60fps, then I would say, yes, it's doable.
This is very reasonable imo.
 
But can those platforms deliver the RT performance that you allude to wanting?
On PC, the most widely used GPU right now (according to Steam Survey) is the RTX 3060, the RTX 2060 is not that far behind either, other GPUs like the GTX 1650, or 1060 are famous too, but they are at the bottom of the barrel for current gen games, and would run them at 720p low settings anyway, the only reason they persisted is because of the long cross gen periord we had, so pretty soon they will be phased out completely.
 
On PC, the most widely used GPU right now (according to Steam Survey) is the RTX 3060, the RTX 2060 is not that far behind either, other GPUs like the GTX 1650, or 1060 are famous too, but they are at the bottom of the barrel for current gen games, and would run them at 720p low settings anyway, the only reason they persisted is because of the long cross gen periord we had, so pretty soon they will be phased out completely.

But most popular does not say anything about sheer numbers, which is the important bit. I hope you are right, it would be cool. But it needs to workout in the spreadsheet to.
 
The only GPU that will deliver a worse level of RT than XSS is the 6500XT?

Owners of that GPU will likly be the type of gamer who just plays games and doens't care about 120fps and native 4k.

So I think for the target audience going RT only will be OK.
 
But most popular does not say anything about sheer numbers, which is the important bit. I hope you are right, it would be cool. But it needs to workout in the spreadsheet to.

RTX 2060 Super+, RTX 3060+ (not counting laptop SKUs), and the RTX 4070ti/4080/4090 already combine for 20%+ on Steam. If you include RTX 3060+ laptop and RTX 2060 it's around 30%. All 3050/ti desktop and laptop variants is another 5%.

A lot of AMDs SKUs don't have enough share to be visible but 6700XT+ is likely at least 1% (6700XT/6800XT/6900XT already total 0.9%). 6600XT is 0.39%. 6600 .42%. 6500XT 0.20%.
 
In my country it was as rare as a dodo, just recently they are available on amazon, and in some big stores but only if you preorder it.
 
Anyway I like how they leak news putting them front and center. It was the same for scorpio and the S.
 
So like, mods - are we ever gonna be let out of timeout for the GPU architecture forums? Or is that just permanent now? Cuz I'll have to admit my interest in staying here is gonna be diminished quite a bit if we cant actually talk about GPU technology properly here anymore.
 
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