Yeah, the manor looks especially horrible.
Yeah I think it's just practically too shiny for the ray budgets in use there. I'm sure HWRT would help somewhat but most of the issues there seem to primarily come from pushing specular/reflections too hard.
Also, it seems like Lumen can't do dynamic shadows from local light sources? I've noticed many shadows from local light sources are missing. There are some, but those were probably set manually by the developers.
As DavidGraham noted, this would be VSMs (direct shadowing) not Lumen (indirect diffuse/specular). VSMs support all of the local light types and even approximate area lighting. Whether a light casts shadows is fully under the control of the developers though, so presumably they turned some of these off as a performance compromise/priority decision.
How does a larger, more experienced team result in character shadowing and DOF? Aren't those entirely engine qualities driven by hardware power?
For cutscenes specifically - somewhat like film lighting - it's basically all hackery. The more people/time you have the more special case tweaked it can be. Even with GI/raytracing systems in place cutscenes will often set up tons of fake lights with carefully tuned shadows, fake light blockers and diffusers and so on. Think of these sequences as being lit more like a film shot than like a realistic scene, because that is what people expect to see. Film would look weird to people if they didn't largely fake the lighting as well. Thus while fancier lighting tech can sometimes help push the upper limit of these visuals, a lot can be done even with relatively modest tech and a lot of careful tweaking. The fancier, more physically accurate and general lighting stuff helps more in gameplay and sequences with unpredictable camera/assets/etc.
•Having something like lumen accelerates development, since baking is no longer necessary.
Right and this is the real big one, because it affects so many decisions that gamers may not be aware of directly, but can make the game better regardless. In those old games you simply could not move lights, so the sequences were designed around that. Obviously we did a good job within those constraints at the time but believe me the writers/designers still felt the pain of that constraint on the story-telling.
But even if you don't need flashy lights moving around everywhere, there are other ways that things can be impacted. I was at the GDC talk for how they did the Star Wars Outlaws planetary transitions and there were several points where they made it clear that it basically would not have been possible to do it with baked lighting. The issue is that in a lot of these places to make it seamless they have to do things like block some lighting in one area, then teleport the whole scene to a new level, then reveal that new lighting and similar. Stuff like that simply isn't possible in a baked world in any sort of practical way.
I keep hearing that RT is supposed to accelerate development but games are coming out more half-baked than ever.
Some of that improvement you will only be able to feel when you can make a game that targets RT exclusively. We've only just started to see games that require RT hardware, and even in those cases the use is fairly light on the consoles. There's no question there are production benefits to heavy RT use in the long run, but in the period where you have to manage both RT and raster across a potentially wide range of platforms and performance levels, it's harder to realize those production gains.