BusinessWeek article on the next-gen systems (some dev comments)

[Titanio]

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jan2006/tc20060123_995345.htm

Some of the more interesting quotes:

Andrew Goldman, CEO of BioWare/Pandemic Studios, which is developing games for both next-gen consoles, says he imagines that as games get more sophisticated, consumers will see games on the PS 3 with more immersive graphics and "richer single-player experiences," while Xbox 360 games will have more sophisticated online components.

Taking advantage of Cell's special powers isn't easy right now, though. "Instead of one potential problem, now you have seven," says Andy Sites, a producer for Sony Online Entertainment in San Diego who is working on a yet-to-be-announced PlayStation 3 project

While he states his game will take advantage of the chip's multiple processors, he admits it isn't easy. "It's very much a lot of fumbling around at this point," and a lot of "trial and error," to get something to work on the PS 3, says James Kosta, chief architect for BattleBorne Entertainment, a studio developing a game for both the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 360. "It could take three or four generations of games (i.e., years) before we see anything taking advantage of the Cell's real potential."

And an analyst forecasts, for larfs:

A report released by Citigroup (C) on Jan. 16 predicts that Xbox 360 will hold its lead and edge out the PlayStation 3 in the U.S. at the peak of the next cycle, selling an estimated 8 million units in 2008 compared with 7.1 million PlayStation 3s in that year (for a grand total of 19.8 million since launch vs. 11 million, respectively). Citigroup expects Nintendo to have sold 3.9 million Revolution systems by 2008.

So..PS3 will only sell ~3-4m consoles in 2007?

 

[ADEX]

"So it looks like 2006 could be the transition to the next generation."

Must have taken them ages to figure that out.

 

[rabidrabbit]

I think it should be noted that these analyst "analyses" are more targeted to folks that may have little to no knowledge of what's going on in console industry... namely the investors.
I would think these Analysts too can have little previous knowledge of console industry, they might just operate based on the facts the have at hand at the moment.

What is obvious and self evident to us, who follow the going-ons daily, and often get some "Insider rumours" way before these Analysts, can be big news to those who are just investing some money in these firms and are also investing in various other industry areas.

Edit: I wouldn't be surprised, if some of the better analysts actually visit B3D for some true great inside analysis

 

[London Geezer]

Must have taken them ages to figure that out.

Please, these people are getting paid thousands of dollars an hour to produce such masterpieces of entertainment. They obviously know what they're talking about...

 

[rabidrabbit]

I would hope that these analyst "news" would no longer be posted here in B3D, as there never is anything really newsworthy to B3D posters/visitors.
Those news are not targeted to us in the first place, why post them here then?

 

[Titanio]

I would hope that these analyst "news" would no longer be posted here in B3D, as there never is anything really newsworthy to B3D posters/visitors.
Those news are not targeted to us in the first place, why post them here then?

To be honest, I posted it mainly for the rest of the article, not the analyst comments. I included the analyst prediction in my post simply because I found it amusing..

 

[avaya]

Sony it seems is still not one company driving towards a collective goal. You have an SOE producer in that article not spouting the regular corporate line on Cell.

SOE is a Sony Pictures entity, they really need to enforce their collective corporate focus across all their divisions, either that or SOE is gonna get the hairdryer treatment from the core executive.

 

[!eVo!-X Ant UK]

It all depends on the Dev's, I remember asking the Kilzone developers about Cell and my question was :

" Would programming for PS2's EE give developers a advantage when they move to Cell and his reply was "YES"

So the Dev's that get the best performance out the EE inside PS2 those are the Dev's that are going to Tap in and push Cell the furthest. He also said that alot of the DMA transfer now are done automatically on Cell now, were as on EE you had to do it manually. I just feel sorry for PC that are moving to PS3 as they have very little multicore experience.

The Dev's that i feel will Tap into Cell quicker than any one else are :

ALL sony 1st party Dev's
Factor 5
Konami
Criterion
Naughty Dog
Ubi Soft.
Capcom

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Ubisoft? I thought they were apublisher, not a development team.

 

[3dcgi]

Ubisoft? I thought they were apublisher, not a development team.

They have their own development teams like EA does. Ubisoft Montreal makes Splinter Cell and Prince of Persia.

 

[seismologist]

Sony it seems is still not one company driving towards a collective goal. You have an SOE producer in that article not spouting the regular corporate line on Cell.

SOE is a Sony Pictures entity, they really need to enforce their collective corporate focus across all their divisions, either that or SOE is gonna get the hairdryer treatment from the core executive.

It's good for us that everyone's not just reciting a corporate line. That means the impressions we've been hearing are probably real. I think the only corporate message from Sony is that nobody is supposed to be saying anything about PS3.

It's also expected that SOE is struggling with Cell since they're mostly a PC developer. I think they only made one PS2 game and that one looked like a PS1 game.

 

[Inane_Dork]

The Dev's that i feel will Tap into Cell quicker than any one else are :

ALL sony 1st party Dev's
Factor 5
Konami
Criterion
Naughty Dog
Ubi Soft.
Capcom

Actually, I've been pretty impressed with EA's graphical showings recently. I think of EA games as getting 7.5's for graphics, but Fight Night Round 3 looks really nice. Maybe it's the Criterion effect.

 

[Hardknock]

While he states his game will take advantage of the chip's multiple processors, he admits it isn't easy. "It's very much a lot of fumbling around at this point," and a lot of "trial and error," to get something to work on the PS 3, says James Kosta, chief architect for BattleBorne Entertainment, a studio developing a game for both the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 360. "It could take three or four generations of games (i.e., years) before we see anything taking advantage of the Cell's real potential."

WHOA

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Is it really that surprising that it'll be two or three years before Cell is used more effectively?

 

[London Geezer]

I don't think it will take 6 months to get everything out of Xenos either to be honest. Or Xenon. Still not even bloody close!!

 

[Platon]

I think it will take less time for developers to get high performance from Cell than 4 years, especially for developers familiar with the PS2, should be able to quite quickly be able to use the cell very effectivelly, that does not mean that they will be able to maximaze it or that as time goes by no new advances will be made.

But I also think that it definitely will take time to use the xbox360 especially the GPU to full as well...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

"It could take three or four generations of games (i.e., years)" doesn't necessarily mean 3 to 4 years. It's clarifying the comment that 3 to 4 generations of games is a span measured in years, not months. As there's no definition how long a generation is we dont know if Kosta is expecting 3-4 years or 6-7 years or 1-2 years (the editor added the years commentary I believe). What he is saying is that it's the third and fourth generation of software that'll be taxing the hardware - the same as every reasonably complicated console system ever created. If XB wasn't having it's full potential tapped in the first 2 generations of titles.

 

[Hardknock]

The article says years. Why you're trying to twist that into months is beyond me. Also they're talking about Cell, not the entire console as a whole. Of course I understand devs need time to learn a console. But if it does take 4 years to "take advantage" of Cell (not even max out) I'll be extremely dissappointed. Hell by then I'll be looking forward to the next-next gen consoles.

 

[London Geezer]

The article says years. Why you're trying to twist that into months is beyond me. Also they're talking about Cell, not the entire console as a whole. Of course I understand devs need time to learn a console. But if it does take 4 years to "take advantage" of Cell (not even max out) I'll be extremely dissappointed. Hell by then I'll be looking forward to the next-next gen consoles.

Are you taking this guy's word as The Truth?
Ok so from now on, because of what this guy said, PS3 will NOT have games that take advantage of Cell for 4 years. Whatever happens. His word is law.


Predictably it suits you to once again put PS3 and Sony in a bad light.


Bored now...

 

[Hardknock]

Are you taking this guy's word as The Truth?
Ok so from now on, because of what this guy said, PS3 will NOT have games that take advantage of Cell for 4 years. Whatever happens. His word is law.


Predictably it suits you to once again put PS3 and Sony in a bad light.


Bored now...

But if it does take 4 years to "take advantage" of Cell (not even max out) I'll be extremely dissappointed. Hell by then I'll be looking forward to the next-next gen consoles.

Selective reading for the win! See you're back to your old tricks.