Blu-ray will not matter...

[Carl B]

Optoware, the company formed by Sony's best optical engineering talent, created HVD which is far superior to HD-DVD/Blu-Ray. They just need to work on making the costs of dics cheaper.

Holographic will appear next year/year-after in the enterprise data space, but won't hit consumers for awhile. That said though, I think both blu-ray's and HD-DVD's roadmaps include holographic in their next-gen iterations of their respective formats.

 

[Powderkeg]

I'm against both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. Both formats are short sighted. Stockholders in the movie industry are worried about DVD sales growth flatening so they are throwing out a new format as fast as they can to get consummers to fork out more money.

Precisely, and that's why I think it will backfire and both will end up losing a ton of money.

They tried that tactic with the switch from VHS to DVD. VHS sales were almost nothing, along comes DVD and the studios get a huge boost as everyone buys into the new format and replaces their old, worn out VHS movies with those fancy new DVD's that never wear out.

That won't work with Bluray/HD-DVD.

Unlike VHS to DVD, not everyone can play Bluray movies. Most people still own SDTV sets, and the majority of them will still own the same sets in another 5 years. These people get no benifit whatsoever from Bluray/HD-DVD. A normal DVD movie is just as good for them.

And unlike the VHS to DVD transition, people don't have to replace their ageing DVD collections, because the movies don't wear out. So, even the people who do buy into Bluray/HD-DVD are unlikely to buy a bunch of the old movies in the new format, limiting movie sales to just new releases, and sold to just those people who ahve HDTV sets and one of the two format drives.


5 years from now I can see a big demand for the next-gen video format, but I just don't think the demand is there for one before then.

 

[mckmas8808]

Optoware, the company formed by Sony's best optical engineering talent, created HVD which is far superior to HD-DVD/Blu-Ray. They just need to work on making the costs of dics cheaper.

And what about 3 to 4 more years. My HDTV is crying for a HD movie. My HDTV has been looking like this -->

It doesn't want to wait for HVD.

 

[Powderkeg]

And what about 3 to 4 more years. My HDTV is crying for a HD movie. My HDTV has been looking like this -->

It doesn't want to wait for HVD.

Well, that would be your fault for buying into a format before it was ready for mainstream adoption.

There are 300+ million people in the US. There are also an estimated 300+ million television sets in the country.

Only an estimated 16 million HDTV's have been sold in the US.

In otherwords, there are 284 million Americans who don't care what your HDTV wants.

 

[<nu>faust]

with so many problems and uncertainity on the horizon why don't industry heavyweights skip blu-ra/hd-dvd gen support&development and prepare for a uber-capacity ultra protection format ( that all of the industry agrees on) instead?

 

[mckmas8808]

Well, that would be your fault for buying into a format before it was ready for mainstream adoption.

There are 300+ million people in the US. There are also an estimated 300+ million television sets in the country.

Only an estimated 16 million HDTV's have been sold in the US.

In otherwords, there are 284 million Americans who don't care what your HDTV wants.

Powerkeg think about what you are saying first. We all know here that HDTV is early. Just because the number of HDTVs are lower today do not mean they will be low next year. Have you heard the number of projected HDTVs in the next year or two?

Over half of the US will have a HDTV by 2008 and we also know that a new movie media can not be started and widely adopted in one year. So why would anybody want HD movies to start coming out in 2008 or 2009? That means that wide adoption rates wouldn't pick up until 2010 or 2011. That's 5 or 6 years before HD movies become widely available and widely brought by many Americans.

The key here with HD-DVD and Blu-ray is that you start the HD movie future now, while at the same time people are buying HDTVs. As a matter of fact you should be able to understand that Blu-ray and HD-DVD movies should pick up the rate of HDTVs sold. Can you understand this logic?

Disclaimer: I not trying to put you down or be little your ability to debate this discussion. It's that it's so obvious that this logic should be seen by everybody here being that we are tech heads.

 

[avaya]

with so many problems and uncertainity on the horizon why don't industry heavyweights skip blu-ra/hd-dvd gen support&development and prepare for a uber-capacity ultra protection format ( that all of the industry agrees on) instead?

Both sides have spent billions already on these two formats. They aren't about to walk away from that.

 

[mckmas8808]

with so many problems and uncertainity on the horizon why don't industry heavyweights skip blu-ra/hd-dvd gen support&development and prepare for a uber-capacity ultra protection format ( that all of the industry agrees on) instead?

Because that will take too long. Why should people like me that brought a HDTV in 2004 have to wait until 2008 for some HD movie media? People HD is NOW!! HD is TODAY!! We just have a few more months before we receive HD movies.

 

[Geo]

"Nearly 47% of TV households in the USA plan to buy an HDTV in the next 12 months."

Got a lot of linkage recently. http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=99379

Not confident how independant those folks are tho, and how much they might be shilling for the manufacturers.

 

[mckmas8808]

"Nearly 47% of TV households in the USA plan to buy an HDTV in the next 12 months."

Got a lot of linkage recently. http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=99379

Not confident how independant those folks are tho, and how much they might be shilling for the manufacturers.

That proves that bringing HD movies to the table now is the right time. Once heavy adoption begins for Blu-ray or HD-DVD most homes will own a HDTV.

 

[DemoCoder]

Well, that would be your fault for buying into a format before it was ready for mainstream adoption.

There are 300+ million people in the US. There are also an estimated 300+ million television sets in the country.

Irrelevent number for comparison to HDTV, since not every TV has a DVD player attached.

Only an estimated 16 million HDTV's have been sold in the US.

HDTV sales are growing exponentially. 7 million units in 2004, 10 million predicted in 2005. By 2009, 71% of all TVs sold will be HDTV.

In otherwords, there are 284 million Americans who don't care what your HDTV wants.

That's an extremely misleading statistic. There are only 297 million Americans total, a large number of them children, but 104 million households. Most homes own only 1 DVD player, and it is in the family/living room. Those 16 million large screen HDTVs occupy the family/living room. So the best way to view HDTV ownership is not against the sum total of all TVs, but against the primary household TV, not small secondary TVs.

The fact that people aren't buying HDTVs for secondary rooms in the house doesn't reflect that they "don't care" about HDTV, but that HDTVs are too large and expensive to put into every bedroom in the house.

In that regard, it's 16million vs 88 million. If 10 million were actually sold this year as predicted, it's 26 vs 78 (because the HDTV unit replaces the main household TV)

The proper conclusion is about 1 in 5.5 people care about what their HDTV wants, the other 4.5 don't have HDTV, but about 1/2 of those want to buy an HDTV, and thus *will care*, especially after they see BluRay demos in stores and on the shelves at blockbuster.


When DVD first arrived, almost noone owned widescreen sets or 5.1 surround system, so would you advocate that they waited to introduce it? BluRay/HD-DVD will actually provide better quality SDTV as well, as well as allowing one disc to hold entire seasons of TV series. Sometimes the cart pulls the horse.

 

[Powderkeg]

Powerkeg think about what you are saying first. We all know here that HDTV is early. Just because the number of HDTVs are lower today do not mean they will be low next year. Have you heard the number of projected HDTVs in the next year or two?

Yes, and it won't be remotely close to the 150 million you would need to make up just half of the market.

Over half of the US will have a HDTV by 2008

No, they won't. An estiamted 30 million sets will be sold by 2008. That's only about 10% of the television market in the US.

and we also know that a new movie media can not be started and widely adopted in one year. So why would anybody want HD movies to start coming out in 2008 or 2009? That means that wide adoption rates wouldn't pick up until 2010 or 2011. That's 5 or 6 years before HD movies become widely available and widely brought by many Americans.

DUH!!!

Did you figure that one out on your own, or did you just happen to read my last post where I said it would be 5+ years for the next-gen movie format to be widely adopted?

And it doesn't matter when you ship them. 2006, 2008, 2010, it doesn't matter. You won't get widespread adoption until you get widespread HDTV adoption, and that's still eayrs away.

The average TV sold is 27" and under $300. HDTV/Bluray/HD-DVD won't be mainstream until you can get an HDTV set of the same size for the same price. And that's still eyars away.

The key here with HD-DVD and Blu-ray is that you start the HD movie future now, while at the same time people are buying HDTVs. As a matter of fact you should be able to understand that Blu-ray and HD-DVD movies should pick up the rate of HDTVs sold. Can you understand this logic?

Nope, your logic is poor at best.

Just because you release a tie-in product doesn't mean people are going to rush out and spend thousands of dollars just to buy into it.

There is a law of marketing called "Supply and Demand." I highly recommend you reading up on this theory of "Supply and Demand." Once you do you will understand why your "logic" of 'Sony creates the supply so the demand will be automatic' is so horribly wrong.


Show me the demand. Your supply means precisely Jack $hit without the demand. DVD's aren't even in demand anymore, WTF makes you think an uber-expensive version of DVD will be?

Disclaimer: I not trying to put you down or be little your ability to debate this discussion. It's that it's so obvious that this logic should be seen by everybody here being that we are tech heads.[/QUOTE]

 

[Powderkeg]

Irrelevent number for comparison to HDTV, since not every TV has a DVD player attached.

Are you stupid?

Did you just say the number of owners is irrelevent in determining your potential market?

HDTV sales are growing exponentially. 7 million units in 2004, 10 million predicted in 2005. By 2009, 71% of all TVs sold will be HDTV.

So you claim. Got any proof?

And even if 100% of new sets sold were HDTV, how much difference does that make? The average owner uses the same TV for 10+ years, so anyone who has bought a TV in the past year 5 years isn't likely to buy another one within the next 5.

That's an extremely misleading statistic. There are only 297 million Americans total, a large number of them children, but 104 million households. Most homes own only 1 DVD player, and it is in the family/living room. Those 16 million large screen HDTVs occupy the family/living room. So the best way to view HDTV ownership is not against the sum total of all TVs, but against the primary household TV, not small secondary TVs.

If you are going to talk about being misleading, you should avoid being a hypocrite about it.

First off, how many HDTV owners own more than 1 set? How many bought projection sets 3+ years ago and have bought newer replacements since? How many of those 16 million sets were sold to sports bars, video stores, or other commercial establishments?

The fact that people aren't buying HDTVs for secondary rooms in the house doesn't reflect that they "don't care" about HDTV, but that HDTVs are too large and expensive to put into every bedroom in the house.

In that regard, it's 16million vs 88 million. If 10 million were actually sold this year as predicted, it's 26 vs 78 (because the HDTV unit replaces the main household TV)

The proper conclusion is about 1 in 5.5 people care about what their HDTV wants, the other 4.5 don't have HDTV, but about 1/2 of those want to buy an HDTV, and thus *will care*, especially after they see BluRay demos in stores and on the shelves at blockbuster.

Flawed logic based on your own misleading numbers.

When DVD first arrived, almost noone owned widescreen sets or 5.1 surround system, so would you advocate that they waited to introduce it? BluRay/HD-DVD will actually provide better quality SDTV as well, as well as allowing one disc to hold entire seasons of TV series. Sometimes the cart pulls the horse.

Your first sentence makes no sense, so I will ignore it.

And the cart NEVER pulls the horse. Simply having a product doesn't create demand, and having an extremely expensive product doesn't lend to a high rate of adoption.

HDTV will NEVER be mainstream until it is priced for the mainstream market. That's sub-$300 sets with over 27" of screen size. Unitl HDTV can match that, it will always be the bastard child set owned only by the rich. Everyone wants a Ferrari, but you don't see them outselling Honda any time soon, do you?

 

[avaya]

Nope, your logic is poor at best.

Just because you release a tie-in product doesn't mean people are going to rush out and spend thousands of dollars just to buy into it.

There is a law of marketing called "Supply and Demand." I highly recommend you reading up on this theory of "Supply and Demand." Once you do you will understand why your "logic" of 'Sony creates the supply so the demand will be automatic' is so horribly wrong.


Show me the demand. Your supply means precisely Jack $hit without the demand. DVD's aren't even in demand anymore, WTF makes you think an uber-expensive version of DVD will be?

I would absolutely guarantee you that HDTV adoption rate and HD optical media adoption rate are cointegrated time-series. It makes complete sense, before you do any sort of quantitative analysis. Complimentary products do have a market; in this case both will drive each others adoption. To deny that some significant percentage (not all, obviously) of HDTV buyers will be buying a next generation DVD player at the same time is being disingenuous.

 

[mckmas8808]

It's obvious that debating you on this issue is pointless. You are neiter honest nor truthful. Democoder gave you a better outlook and you call him stupid.

 

[Bobbler]

Powderkeg, you might want to tone down that attitude.

Claiming other peoples logic is flawed (rather rudely, too) while spitting out your own flawed numbers with accompanied misleading numbers is rather comical though...

 

[BTOA]

All I have to say is that HDTV owners want HD material playing on their HDTV sets.

Since Sony will be offering consumers both a world of HD content, gaming and movies, with PS3. I think HDTV owners will bite on both ends, IMO.

Besides, who's going to complain about HD content being more easily available? They have to be either a non-HDTV owner or against HD to be complaining about the HD content being available in the form of games, movies, and TV broadcasting material.

 

[mckmas8808]

Besides, who's going to complain about HD content being more easily available? They have to be either a non-HDTV owner or against HD to be complaining about the HD content being available in the form of games, movies, and TV broadcasting material.

Exactly. Why would someone be against the next-gen movie media is confusing to me. As a HDTV owner I want HD movies and games next year. I (or I should say my dad) didn't spend $2,500 just to watch ESPN in HD. We want movies too.

 

[seismologist]

What do you know once again Powderkeg shows up to steer the conversation off course. What were we arguing about again?

Honestly if your point is that there's "no market" for Blu Ray I just have to say that you are in way over your head and may as well back out from your argument now.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

It's obvious that debating you on this issue is pointless. You are neiter honest nor truthful. Democoder gave you a better outlook and you call him stupid.

Actually, they both have valid points and counter-points. (Once you cut through the rashness and bullshit, of course...)